Projecting the Field
By Tony Mejia
SportsLine.com Staff Writer
  
 
   

SportsLine's preseason projections of the 65 schools that will make up this year's NCAA Tournament. Look for updated projections in mid-December.

The final projection has nailed 64 of the 65 entries in each of the past two seasons.

The Ivy League champion earns an automatic bid, as do the winners of the 30 conference tournaments. At-large bids are handed out to 34 additional schools, based on the strength of their regular seasons (which takes into account win-loss record, conference mark and strength of schedule).

Click on Projecting the NCAA Tournament seeds to see what the projected bracket looks like.

America East (1)
Conference champ: Vermont
Catamounts PG T.J. Sorrentine is out with a wrist injury but will return before the start of league play. His playmaking skills are unmatched in the AEC and will ultimately be the difference in a tight race with Boston U.
ACC (6)
Conference champ: Duke
At-large: Maryland, Virginia, N.C. State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina
Bubble burst: Wake Forest
Youth will have a significant say in this league's final at-large bids. The performance of freshmen Chris Bosh and Jarrett Jack (GT), Ray Felton, Rashad McCants and Sean May (UNC), and Eric Williams, Justin Gray and Chris Ellis (Wake) will ultimately determine the success of their teams.
Atlantic Sun (1)
Conference champ: Georgia State.
Playing host to the league tournament should give the Panthers the edge they need to get back to the NCAAs. Expect Hugh Durham's Jacksonville team to pose a challenge, but winning in Atlanta is a really tall order.
Atlantic 10 (2)
Conference champ: Xavier
At-large: Richmond
Bubble burst: Dayton, St. Bonaventure, UMass
Xavier, by far the class of the league, should shepherd one of its brethren into the tournament. The increased visibility the Muskies receive will allow the nation to see the rest of the league's improving teams. After receiving only one bid last year, the A-10 will rebound.
Big East (6)
Conference champ: Connecticut
At-large: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Georgetown, Notre Dame, St. John's
Bubble burst: Villanova, BC
As has been the case the past few seasons, teams will play their way in or out of the NCAAs in the league tournament. The overall depth of the conference is terrific, with eight schools harboring legitimate title aspirations. The six we're projecting are the league's most balanced sides. BC boasts the Beast's top backcourt but remains too thin up front. 'Nova is simply too young to swim with the bigger sharks.
Big Sky (1)
Conference champ: Weber State
Weber hasn't been back to the NCAA Tournament since Harold Arceneaux stole the "Sheaux" by sending UNC packing in '99. Bolstered by the return of top guard Jermaine Boyette and the arrival of Ohio State transfer Slobodan Ocokoljic, the Wildcats are favored to reappear in your bracket.
Big South (1)
Conference champ: UNC-Asheville
All things must come to an end. Winthrop's run of four consecutive NCAA Tournaments has been nice, but this is definitely the year the rest of the league catches up. No fewer than four other schools have legitimate reasons to feel this is their year, with UNCA looming as the strongest candidate.
Big Ten (5)
Conference champ: Michigan State
At-large: Minnesota, Indiana, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Bubble burst: Illinois
The Spartans, despite the loss of PG Marcus Taylor, are going to be an absolute force. Not only do they have the nation's deepest frontcourt rotation, they also figure to be just fine at the point with sophomore Chris Hill adapting quickly. Dan Monson has Minnesota on the cusp of big things, while Indiana's postseason experience will make it dangerous. Rebuilding Illinois will be one of the last team's left out.
Big 12 (6)
Conference champ: Texas
At-large: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Iowa State, Texas Tech
Bubble burst: Oklahoma State, Colorado, Texas A&M
The nation's best conference has three potential No. 1 seeds, and the best of the rest isn't bad either. Everyone knows about the no-brainers at the top, but one team few know about is Iowa State, which is poised to re-emerge after a one-year absence. JC transfer Tim Barnes could be a household name by season's end.
Big West (1)
Conference champ: UC Santa Barbara
Bubble burst: Utah State
Mark Hull's 3-point shooting nearly shot down Arizona last year. With him back to anchor a vetran supporting cast, the Gauchos are going to be a threat to any team, anywhere. Utah State should be used to getting snubbed by the selection committee by now; Desmond Penigar and Co. could make a run in the NIT.
Colonial (1)
Conference champ: George Mason
The Patriots are starting the season with seven scholarship players but should have a couple of its injured players back for the bulk of conference play. Chief among them is sophomore Lamar Butler, who keys balances out the team's frontcourt advantage with his shooting. If healthy, George Mason unseats defending champ UNC-Wilmington.
Conference USA (3)
Conference champ: Cincinnati
At-large: Louisville, Marquette
Bubble burst: Memphis, Charlotte
The league's top three teams are in the American Division, which could make things very interesting down the stretch. Memphis should pace the National, but the Tigers are going to have their share of ups and downs given their youth. They will be in the running for a bid, but a lot will have to go their way down the stretch in order to get it done.
Horizon League (1)
Conference champ: Detroit
Butler's ownership of the Horizon appears over, and Detroit, with the league's top inside-outside combo (Terrell Riggs and Willie Green) back, looks like the favorite. Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Wisconsin-Green Bay also look strong, and Butler won't be giving up their reign without a fight. They have enough pieces back to mount a challenge in what should be an exciting race.
Ivy League (1)
Conference champ: Pennsylvania
Penn's "Big Five" success may have merited an at-large bid last year had it needed it. Fortunately for the nation's bubble teams, the Quakers won the Ivy's mini-tournament that took place after a three-way regular-season tie ensued. There should be no parity at the top this year. Fran Dunphy's team is good enough to run the table.
MAAC (1)
Conference champ: Manhattan
This league's tournament is always full of surprises, but you have to figure Manhattan has the talent in place to hold off the upset-minded. With Rutgers transfer Luis Flores at the helm, the Jaspers should survive challenges from Iona, Niagara, Siena and whatever also-ran catches fire in Trenton.
MAC (1)
Conference champ: Ball State
Bubble burst: Ohio U.
The MAC's top two players, Ball State's Theron Smith and Ohio's Brandon Hunter, will lead their teams to division titles. But neither figures to be as dominant as Kent State was last season, which figures to strand the league with just one bid.
MEAC (1)
Conference champ: South Carolina State
Hampton has dominated this conference in recent years but will have a much tougher fight on its hands in this go-round. Not only is coaching wiz Steve Merfeld gone, but the other teams at the top have been bolstered heavily by quality transfers. Clemson imports Chuckie Gilmore and Dustin Braddick lead the Bulldogs back to the NCAAs.
Mid-Con (1)
Conference champ: Valparaiso
The Crusaders aren't as deep as they were last year, but do return enough talent for first-year coach Scott Drew to continue the winning tradition his father built. Oakland may emerge as a darkhorse, but odds are the Crusaders and talented Oral Roberts will duke it out in the league final.
Missouri Valley (2)
Conference champ: Creighton
At-large: Southern Illinois
Last year marked the first time two MVC teams won first-round games in the same tournament. We may get to see if they can do it again. The Blue Jays have more firepower than most teams, while the Salukis are disciplined, well-coached and return experienced leaders Kent Williams and Jermaine Dearman.
Mountain West (2)
Conference champ: UNLV
At-large: Wyoming
Bubble burst: BYU, Utah
It's very difficult to beat the Rebels in Vegas in a tournament setting. Given the development of Dalron Johnson and Marcus Banks, this year promises to be even tougher. Wyoming should hit the 20-victory plateau and earn an invite, but Utah and BYU may be out of luck. The improvement of former bottom-feeders San Diego State and Air Force will hurt the W-L records of the league's bubble teams.
Northeast (1)
Conference champ: St. Francis (N.Y.)
Central Connecticut State has won 33 of of 38 league games the past two seasons but lost big man Corsley Edwards to the pros. His departure leaves the NEC up for grabs. If transfers Tory Cavalieri and Mike Wilson jell in the backcourt, the Terriers will be the league's strongest team come March.
Ohio Valley (1)
Conference champ: Murray State
Poised to make its second consecutive appearance, Murray State may be on the verge of recapturing its strangle hold on the OVC. The Racers reached the NCAA Tournament seven times during the '90s but fell back to the pack in recent years. Perennial contender Tennessee Tech lost mastermind Jeff Lebo to Chattanooga and will be hard-pressed to stand in Murray's way.
Pac-10 (4)
Conference champ: Arizona
At-large: Oregon, USC, UCLA
Bubble burst: Stanford, Arizona State
The four teams at the top of the conference are very clear cut. Too clear cut, in fact. Stanford, Arizona State and Washington may be lumped in a middle of the pack that might be entirely passed over by the committee. Of the three, the Cardinal stand to have the best shot at an at-large bid (they already own a victory over Xavier), but it won't be easy given the abundance of talent around the nation.
Patriot League (1)
Conference champ: Holy Cross
Ralph Willard added 7-foot-6 Neil Fingleton to a cast that was already head and shoulders above the rest of the Patriot's clubs. Barring an unlikely upset in the league tournament, the Crusaders will make their third consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance.
SEC (6)
Conference champ: Alabama
At-large: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
Bubble burst: LSU, South Carolina
It was early, but Alabama's victory over Oklahoma in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic might be a key ingredient in a potential No. 1 seed. Also off to a good start is Florida, which has looked impressive despite being without the services of Brett Nelson and Danish import Christian Drejer.
Southern (1)
Conference champ: Furman
Last year's race featured three-way ties in each of league's divisions. There's no reason to think this year will be any less tight. While there are no fewer than eight teams capable of emerging as conference champ, we'll ride with the Paladins, who haven't been to the NCAAs since 1980, but return the SoCon's top playmaker (Guillherme Da Luz) and one of the top scorers (Karim Souchu).
Southland (1)
Conference champ: Lamar
After winning a league title in his first year at the helm, veteran coach Mike Deane has been saddled with excessive youth the past two years. With those players now experienced, the Cardinals are poised to return to the to top of the Southland, unseating McNeese State.
Sun Belt (2)
Conference champ: Louisiana-Lafayette
At-large: Western Kentucky
Michael Southall went toe-to-toe with Chris Marcus and nearly helped trip up the Hilltoppers in last year's Sun Belt final. The emerging sophomore center finishes the job this year, leading the Ragin' Cajuns past Western Kentucky to earn a bid. WKU shouldn't have a problem garnering an at-large bid.
SWAC (1)
Conference champ: Grambling
The SWAC champ has been a part of the play-in game in consecutive seasons, and this year's winner is likely headed there as well. Davey Whitney came back for one last run with Alcorn State, but will have to find away to stop Grambling's Paul Haynes in order to get back to the NCAAs. Haynes, the league's top player, could lead the Tigers into the tournament for the first time in school history.
WAC (1)
Conference champ: Tulsa
Bubble burst: SMU, Louisiana Tech
Tulsa is far and away the top team in this league and should be among the national leaders in victories by the time March rolls around. The Golden Hurrricane should push for a top-four seed, which would put them in excellent shape to make tournament run. Keep an eye on SMU's re-emergence. Freshman PG Byran Hopkins will get this team back to the Big Dance before his career ends.
West Coast (2)
Conference champ: Gonzaga
At-large: Pepperdine
After getting screwed with a No. 6 seed last year, Gonzaga knows it can't take anything for granted in the selection process. For that reason, the 'Zags have beefed up their non-conference slate and shouldn't have a problem earning at top-four seed if it plays to its potential. Pepperdine, also strong, will live on the bubble if it can't take down the Bulldogs in the league race. The Waves will be one of the last teams in or out.