Behind the numbers

By Jason Beck
SportsLine Staff Writer

Power outage

If the great question of 1999 is whether Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa can approach their record-breaking home run totals of 1998, Roger Maris and the Babe may provide an answer.

History's other 60-homer sluggers couldn't keep up the pace in their seasons-after. That much is obvious. But a look behind the home-run totals and into the overall statistics reveals the possible pitfalls McGwire and Sosa could encounter.

After-shock
Stats for baseball's previous 60-homer sluggers from the year they set their records to the following season.
Roger Maris
Year AB BA 2B HR RBI BB SO Slg
1961 590 .269 16 61 142 94 67 .620
1962 590 .256 34 33 100 87 78 .485
Babe Ruth
Year AB BA 2B HR RBI BB SO Slg
1927 540 .356 29 60 164 138 89 .772
1928 536 .323 29 54 142 135 87 .709
Maris survived a media blitz to nail 61 homers in 1961, although his record carried an asterisk ordered by commissioner Ford Frick since he needed 162 games to pass Babe Ruth's mark. The stress left its toll the next season as Maris' home-run count plummeted from 61 to 33 in the same number of at-bats (590).

Yet while his batting average dropped 13 points and his slugging percentage fell 135 points, notice how his doubles total more than doubled, from 16 in 1961 to 34 in '62. So while Maris didn't clear the fences, he certainly had enough power to take his fair share of pitches to the wall.

Just as Maris couldn't blame bad pitches for his decline, Ruth's walk numbers also fell from his 60-homer season of 1927 to his 54-homer campaign of 1928. The Babe's fall in average, however, was more dramatic, dropping 34 points. His slugging percentage, moreover, dropped him a superhuman .772 mark in '27 to a merely infeasible .709 clip the following season.

That said, it's still pretty hard to call a 54-homer year a disappointment, no matter how many the Babe hit the previous year.

Sosa's early-season woes, by contrast, are more apparent. He's gone fishing. Is an 11-strikeout total over his first 25 at-bats and a .280 slugging percentage clear enough?

Some other numbers:

1 -- Number of Fernando Tatis hits in the four games after he hit three home runs in the Cardinals' first three games.

2 -- Number of Cardinal catchers who have stolen home plate in the last three seasons. Eli Marrero swiped home in the fourth inning Tuesday off of Pirates starter Pete Schourek. It turned out to be the eventual game-winning run. Mike DiFelice stole home on April 17, 1997 during a game at Florida. Neither came on a double steal.

3 -- Number to home runs Jeff Bagwell needs, as of Wednesday, to break the Astros record of 223 homers set by Jimmy Wynn.

7 -- Number of teams with 2,500 or more wins since 1968 (Yankees, Orioles, Reds, Dodgers, Red Sox, Pirates and Athletics). Oakland reached the plateau with Monday's win over the Mariners, giving them 2,500 wins since moving from Kansas City.

Don Zimmer is nearing a managerial milestone.
Don Zimmer is nearing a managerial milestone. (AP)

9 -- Number of wins Don Zimmer needs for 900 as a manager after leading the Yankees to a 6-1 start in an interim role. Assuming Joe Torre returns on May 1, the Yanks have 14 games in which to win nine games for Zimmer. Of course, a 9-5 stretch would be a disappointment for the Yankees.

10 -- Number of errors committed by the Expos in their first eight games.

14 -- Number of double plays converted by the Royals in their first seven games. That's what the departure of Jose Offerman will do for a team.

373 -- Number of consecutive sellouts at Jacobs Field if all 81 home games are played this season. As expected, all of the Indians home games this season were sold out before the season began for the fourth straight year. The game streak is the longest in Major League history.

.530 -- The Mariners' winning percentage (339-301) in odd-numbered years during the '90s, including two division titles and a winning record each year. In even-numbered years, the M's are just 351-407 (.463) with only one winning season.

2,208 -- Number of games the Cubs' Gary Gaetti has played at third base through Wednesday. He's fourth on the all-time Major League list, four behind Mike Schmidt (2,212). Brooks Robinson is first (2,870), followed by Graig Nettles (2,412).

 
Related Links
· On deck
· Extra Innings
· Last week's Behind the Numbers


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