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Nebraska's uphill climb for Sugar still has a big obstacle -- Virginia Tech
The enormity of the task ahead for Nebraska in the Bowl Championship Series
is beginning to take shape. It must not only win down the stretch, but win big.
At first glance, it looks like the Huskers took a huge byte out of Virginia Tech's hold on second place. The Hokies lost 1.77 points off the 2.40-point advantage they held over the Huskers heading into the weekend. Virginia Tech crushed Temple 62-7 while Nebraska was idle. Florida State remained first in this week's BCS poll with 2.32 points followed by Virginia Tech with 6.78. Nebraska is third with 7.41 points. But the Huskers might have stagnated, bumping their heads against a cyber ceiling. With two games left against Colorado and Texas, it's going to be difficult for Nebraska to catch Virginia Tech and play in the Sugar Bowl to according to Chicago-based computer expert Jerry Palm. "They don't control it," Palm told SportsLine Monday. "Fifty-seven to nothing against Colorado this week would be nice. Then Nebraska might be able to get away with just beating Texas." Running up the score is one part of the old bowl system that carried over to the BCS. Blowouts impress both human voters and computers. There might have been a hint of running up Saturday when Virginia Tech rolled over Temple. There's no secret that seven of the eight computer indexes incorporate some kind of margin of victory factor in their formulas. "When it's gotten to how much you can beat a team, we're getting away from what college football should be about," Virginia coach Frank Beamer said. "We talk about taunting and respecting an opponent, then everybody is talking about how bad can you beat somebody?" Temple coach Bobby Wallace had no problem with being driven into the Veterans Stadium turf. There were too many factors, the main one being Temple is terrible. "We were in a tough situation," Wallace said. "We beat them last year. They were upset about that. They were on national TV. You gotta look as good as you can. They gotta worry about these computer formulas. I do know that beating somebody bad is better than just barely getting by ... I had no problem with that whatsoever." The irony this week is Nebraska and Virginia Tech have struggles on their hands. Boston College (8-2) is coming off a victory at Notre Dame, its biggest since a crippling gambling scandal three years ago. Colorado, which hasn't beaten Nebraska since 1990, is playing one of its biggest rivals with a suddenly stout defense. "We're going to try our best to win the football game," Nebraska coach Frank Solich said. "To say that we're going to try to go in and win it by a certain margin is not accurate. It's not something that we think about." Colorado (6-4) has clinched a bowl but could make a major statement in coach Gary Barnett's first season. While rebuilding Northwestern earlier in the decade, Barnett was on the receiving end of a few whippings, but few easy victories. "Unfortunately what we might call ethics are laid aside," Barnett said. "I don't think teams necessarily come out and put 62 on you, you let them put 62 on you. To me, those games you want to win by 50, it never happens that way. I tend to think it's as much the responsibility the team that is getting their butt kicked as the team kicking your butt." We'll see. The problem for Nebraska is it will be hard for it to move any higher if Virginia Tech wins its regular-season finale Saturday against Boston College. Nebraska gained a BCS point this week by moving up to third in both major polls. It slipped ahead of Florida after the Gators lost to Florida State. But Virginia Tech is likewise locked in at No. 2 in the major polls. Neither team, seemingly, can move any higher with the human voters. Virginia Tech also leads Nebraska in six of the eight computer indexes. Only one of those has either team ranked lower than third. Nebraska will probably have to reverse that, beating Virginia Tech in six of eight computers to win, Palm said. There's just not much room for movement unless, perhaps, Nebraska can lay the wood. "I don't think you should be rewarded if winning by 50 is the way to get it done," Boston College coach Tom O'Brien said. If the computer indexes remain the same, Palm has projected that if both Nebraska and Virginia Tech win out, the Hokies will hold on to second place by .79 points -- 7.09-6.30. But the possibility of the computers staying stable is unlikely. Nebraska got a surprise in the Seattle Times computer rankings Monday, the last of the eight indexes released this week. Nebraska moved from fourth to second, while Virginia Tech remained fifth. However, that is a tenuous advantage. No. 3 Alabama, No. 4 Kansas State and No. 5 Virginia Tech are separated by .001 of a point in the Times rankings.
A Virginia Tech victory Saturday could easily boost it up to third in the Times. Virginia Tech was able to protect its second-place spot this week, in part, Palm said, because of an impressive showing by Hokie opponents Boston College and Alabama-Birmingham. Boston College won at Notre Dame and Alabama-Birmingham won at Tulane. The margin for error is so slim, Nebraska would do well rooting for Troy State this week. The Division I-AA program could help the Huskers by beating James Madison in the I-AA playoffs. Virginia Tech's strength of schedule was hurt by playing James Madison in September. In the BCS, victories by I-AA schools do not count, only losses. Virginia Tech's strength of schedule will drop five spots -- or .02 points in the BCS -- if James Madison loses again according to Palm. Virginia Tech's strength of schedule this week is 66. Palm projects it could rise as high as 50. A couple of weeks ago, he was predicting it could fall into the 70s. Boston College helps Virginia Tech's cause because it is ranked in the Top 25. Its schedule, though, is rated the seventh worst in the country. Alabama-Birmingham (5-6) finished with its best-ever Division I-A season. It is rated 60th in the BCS, but its schedule strength is 28. The 2-year-old BCS uses a mathematical formula to determine the two teams that will play in the Sugar Bowl. The winner on Jan. 4 in New Orleans will get at least a share of the national championship.
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