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March 3, 2000 By Len Pasquarelli SportsLine.com Senior Writer |
Here is the dirty little secret of NFL college scouting directors, the men whose livelihoods are tied to predicting the predilections of 22-year-old prospects, and whose continued employment is directly related to their sage insights into sport's most inexact science: Despite all the politically correct lip service paid to staying in school and completing eligibility,
most scouts privately count on the underclass talent pool to bolster the draft every year.
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That helps explain why so many scouts and personnel directors returned to their hotel rooms at last week's pre-draft combine workouts in Indianapolis tired and disappointed and fretting about a first round in which the true
blue-chip prospects number no more than five. Blame much of their frustration on a 2000 draft that has gaping holes at several positions and, based on the combine, is not as deep as originally expected.
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And blame the shallow talent pool, at least in part, on the absence of quality underclass players.
"The juniors just aren't there this year, certainly not in the numbers they have been over the last several drafts, and that was obvious (at the combine)," Green Bay vice president of personnel Ken Herock said. "We didn't see the volume of underclass prospects coming out this year. And some of the ones who did would have been a lot better off staying in school another season."
Of course, the league's personnel directors aren't supposed to publicly discuss underclass players. The NFL operates under a tenuous truce with the college coaches, some of whom still refuse to permit scouts on campus except for designated periods in the late fall, and the league desperately needs to maintain a public semblance of propriety.
After all, the college game represents a cheap feeder system for the NFL, one the league cannot afford to have dry up. Imagine the costs of having to build from scratch the kind of minor-league system baseball has and developing football players in such an environment. The notion is as impractical as it is exorbitant.
Scouts who discuss for attribution the NFL potential of non-senior prospects, at least until those players formally apply for admission to the draft pool, are subject to sanctions by commissioner Paul Tagliabue. And so the very public stance of the league is that every player should remain in school until his eligibility has expired. In fact, the official draft reports disseminated by National Football Scouting Inc., and Blesto -- the two services that supply background on prospects to 27 of the 31 teams in the league -- list only seniors.
In the real world, though, general managers and personnel directors rely on the premier underclass players to realize there is nothing further they can achieve at the college level and to enter the NFL Draft. Every year, they instruct regional scouts to check out non-senior players and at least compile a preliminary dossier on them. Certainly the reliance on top-shelf underclass players has been apparent since the league adopted its current guidelines for allowing juniors into the lottery.
"You might not want (the juniors) in the draft but it's a fact of life that they're in it, and so you plan on them being there," Carolina Panthers personnel director Jack Bushofsky said. "The rules are what they are, you know? So no matter your personal feelings on the matter, you evaluate them. And, sure, the fact is that their presence has probably pumped up the last few drafts."
Since 1989, there has been an average of 4.2 underclass players annually among the top 10 picks in the draft. Over the past three seasons, exactly half of the top 10 choices were juniors. In the '97 draft, seven of the first 10 players selected were underclass prospects. The last 11 drafts featured a total of 244 underclass players selected, or nearly two dozen per lottery.
The two players who earned Rookie of the Year honors for the '99 season, Tennessee defensive end Jevon Kearse and Indianapolis tailback Edgerrin James, both were juniors who bypassed their final season of college eligibility to enter the draft.
"I'd say three years (in college) is enough for the really good players," James said. "Then you need to test yourself against the best."
But on first inspection, the underclass pool for the April 15-16 draft appears to flunk out in terms of quantity and quality.
Just 26 underclass players applied for entry into the 2000 draft, the lowest number since 25 in '89 and well below the 11-year average of 40.1. The college coaches and school administrators likely welcome that news and would point to the fact that 45 percent of the juniors who entered the draft since 1989 weren't even selected. Conversely, the league scouts privately bemoan such diminished numbers.
Should the norm hold true, and 55 percent of the underclass players get drafted, that would add in theory only 14 juniors to the Class of 2000. And that would represent the fewest underclassmen taken since the dozen in 1989.
The 2000 underclass cupboard isn't completely bare, of course, and Penn State linebacker LaVar Arrington and Michigan State wide receiver Plaxico Burress almost certainly will be among the first five players selected.
The Washington Redskins already are penciling in Arrington as their starter at strongside linebacker, and he will enter the season as the early favorite to win defensive Rookie of the Year honors. While some teams are concerned about Burress' lack of deep speed, at least three personnel directors at the combine told SportsLine they prefer the Spartans star over Florida State wideout Peter Warrick, the likely No. 1 overall pick.
But after Arrington and Burress, it is difficult to predict when the next underclass player will go off the draft board and even more difficult to project who will make an impact as a rookie.
Wide receivers Dez White (Georgia Tech) and Travis Taylor (Florida) did not perform especially well at the combine. Tight end Bubba Franks (Miami) ran just a 4.95 in the 40 during a private workout Thursday. Tailback Jamal Lewis (Tennessee) is coming off two injury-marred years and an indifferent performance during the '99 season. Offensive linemen Marvel Smith (Arizona State) and Cosey Coleman (Tennessee) have great promise, but rookie blockers usually don't start in the NFL. Cornerback Ike Charlton (Virginia Tech) and safety Deon Grant (Tennessee) both need work on technique.
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| Florida State kicker Sebastian Janikowski might slip into the first round with the lack of depth available.(AP) |
Fact is, roly-poly kicker Sebastian Janikowski, the Florida State star who drilled 16 of 18 field goal tries at the combine and who could sneak into the bottom of the first round given the shallow talent pool, might just have more impact in 2000 than any other underclass player.
"With all the games being decided by three points or less now," Washington personnel director Vinny Cerrato said, "that guy is a hot commodity. Really, he probably does rate as one of the surest things among the junior players. It looks like a pretty average (underclass) bunch to me."
The lack of quality juniors will contribute to the 2000 lottery being more of a "need" draft, one in which the 16th player selected might be every bit as good as the sixth, and where teams try to fill certain positions rather than opt for the prospect they consider the best athlete. There clearly is a leavening of the talent after the first five prospects.
A SportsLine survey of college scouting directors in Indianapolis indicated most felt another six to nine highly regarded juniors would have petitioned the league for inclusion in this draft. That a player like Purdue quarterback Drew Brees opted to stay in school is regarded as admirable by most scouts, but they also acknowledge his decision might have been a shortsighted one.
In a draft where Marshall star Chad Pennington figures to be the lone quarterback selected in the first round, and no is even risking a prediction on which team will take him, Brees likely would have been a top 10 choice. As it is, there are zero underclass quarterbacks rated as "draftable," with Georgia star Quincy Carter also deciding to stay another season on campus. Given that the first three rounds of each of the past 10 drafts have featured at least one underclass quarterback, this year's lottery immediately qualifies as an anomaly.
Said one AFC West coach: "With the way this thing has played out, Brees probably would have been the top (quarterback). Not having him in this draft is a killer in a lot of ways."
One personnel director from another AFC franchise noted the presence of Brees would have created some trade action in the top 10 picks as quarterback-needy teams scrambled to land him, and thus would have "knocked down" a player at another position. Of course, the teams who do not need quarterbacks love to see them go off the board early -- as was the case in 1999, when there were five quarterbacks taken in the top dozen picks -- because it forces players from other positions deeper into the first round.
Among the other coveted underclass players who might have made an impact in the 2000 lottery were defensive ends Roland Seymour (Florida State) and Andre Carter (California), defensive tackles Ennis Davis (Southern California) and Casey Hampton (Texas), guard Steve Hutchinson (Michigan), cornerback Jimmy Williams (Vanderbilt), wide receivers Reggie Wayne and Santana Moss (both Miami) and tailback Travis Minor (Florida State).
In an informal poll of seven general managers last weekend, the consensus was that Seymour and Davis might have joined Brees as potential top 10 selections in this draft. One general manager rated Davis nearly as good as top-rated tackle prospect Corey Simon of Florida State and cited Seymour as better than any of the end prospects except for Penn State's Courtney Brown.
"When guys like that stay in school," said an NFC Central general manager, "it breaks your heart. They really would have helped, believe me."