No. 1 thing to do

The first thing to do is put the four No. 1 seeds (Duke, Michigan State, Arizona, Stanford) into the second round. Top seeds have never lost to No. 16 seeds and pretty much are guaranteed to reach the Sweet 16, if not the Elite Eight. In fact, 27 of 60 (45 percent) top seeds have reached the Final Four. No. 1 seeds have won seven of the past 10 national championships.

Almost sure things

During the past 15 years, No. 2 seeds are 57-3 in the first round, and No. 3 seeds are 47-13.

Final Four four

In four of the past five years, a No. 4 seed has reached the Final Four. Illinois, LSU, Syracuse and Tennessee are hoping to make it five of six.

Be careful Auburn, Louisville, Oregon, Tulsa

No. 7 seeds were 0-4 in the first round last year, and are 9-15 in the first round since '94. As for No. 8 seeds, only five of 60 have reached the Sweet 16.

The five hole

A No. 12 seed has knocked out a No. 5 seed in 14 of the past 15 tournaments, and four times two No. 5s were eliminated on Day One. And of those 18 victories, the No. 12 seeds were 10-8 in second-round games. Only once (1988) have all four No. 5 seeds advanced to the second round. Florida, Connecticut, Kentucky and Texas probably don't want to hear all that.

Higher isn't always better

In the No. 8-No. 9 first-round meetings, the No. 9 teams are 35-25. That could bode well for DePaul, Fresno State, Missouri and Saint Louis.

Watch out for ...

Hot & cold: Every coach wants his team to get hot at the right time (i.e. right before the postseason). Iowa State's Larry Eustachy and Duke's Mike Krzyzewski must be thrilled. The Cyclones have won seven consecutive games and 13 of 14; the Blue Devils have won five in a row and nine of 10.

Other hot teams include Fresno State, which has won eight in a row; Arkansas (five) and Saint Louis (four) are two teams that played themselves into the tourney by winning their respective conference championships; and defending champ UConn has won six of seven.

In contrast, some teams have stumbled badly late. Seton Hall lost five of its past seven games. (Note: The Pirates' first-round opponent -- Oregon -- has won four in a row.) Tennessee was 3-3 in its past six games. Indiana dropped four of its past six. Missouri has lost four of six.

Teams relying on 3-point shooting: Creighton, Ball State and Northern Arizona are three teams that shoot the 3 well. If they're hot, Auburn, UCLA and St. John's could face difficulty in the first round.

Bad free-throw shooting teams: As good as Ball State is from behind the 3-point line, the Cardinals hit just 61 percent of their free throws. Then again, they're playing UCLA in the first round. The Bruins are a horrendous 58 percent from the foul line.

Other teams who could be in trouble in a close game include La.-Lafayette (61 percent from the foul line), LSU (64 percent), Kansas and Mississippi (each 65 percent), and Gonzaga (66 percent).

Late-season injuries, suspensions: Is there any fan not aware of the injury to Cincinnati's Kenyon Martin, whose broken leg resulted in the Bearcats losing a No. 1 seed? But that's not the only major loss.

Without Chris Porter (loss of eligibility), Auburn has a very tough job ahead. Top seed Arizona reportedly will be without 7-foot-1 center Loren Woods (back injury). Kentucky will miss starting guard Desmond Allison, who has been suspended following his arrest on drunken-driving charges.

Senior-led teams: Experience always helps when the pressure is on. Teams such as Syracuse and Oklahoma State could benefit from having a group of key veteran players.