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March 13, 2000 By Rob Miech SportsLine.com Staff Writer |
Complete March Mayhem coverage Vote for the all-time tournament team Audio: CBS analyst Clark Kellogg says he is impressed by strength of all No. 5 seeds Audio: Kellogg talks about Kenyon Martin's injury dropping Cincinnati to a No. 2 seed Audio: CBS' Jim Nantz says Midwest is toughest regionMiech's projected bracket
It was nice while it lasted, but visions of a national championship for Cincinnati crashed to the floor in Memphis, Tenn., with Kenyon Martin.
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Stanford will snake that berth, but Ohio State will be the team that will end the Bearcats' dream of advancing to the RCA Dome in Indianapolis in a titillating matchup.
Out of sheer respect for the fantastic season Cincinnati and Martin had, the Bearcats were going to remain in the fold as a national semifinalist. Then they pulled Ohio State in a South Regional semifinal in Nashville, where the bad blood between the two programs will boil into one of the finest games of the tournament.
And that's where we must give the edge to the Buckeyes' talented senior backcourt of Scoonie Penn and Michael Redd. Moreover, the low post senior tandem of Ken Johnson and George Reese will pound the middle for Ohio State with Martin out of the picture.
We're adhering to the other predictions made in this space nine months ago, namely that Arizona will also reach the Final Four in a Jason Gardner homecoming bash and Michigan State will defeat Florida in the national final game April 3.
Yes, you've been reading about the all-around abilities of the dynamic Spartans in this space for a long time, and now the gestation period is over. It's time for Mateen Cleaves, Morris Peterson and the rest of coach Tom Izzo's crew to roll.
Funny how not much changes in one year, either. This time last season, everyone's mother and mailman (postal technician to the politically correct) was tabbing Duke to win it all.
Coach Mike Krzyzewski then endured the biggest roster shakeup of his career, but look where the Blue Devils are once again: Atop the East with a No. 1 seed.
Duke is the lone uncontroversial top seed, but it hasn't worn that bull's eye very well. Seven of the past 10 NCAA champs have been seeded No. 1. However, of coach K's four previous teams that earned No. 1 seeds, only the 1991-92 squad won a national title.
Last season's squad crumbled in the final minute of the national final against UConn, and the 1997-98 top-seeded Devils didn't even reach the Final Four. This one won't either, as Florida puts together a well-balanced inside and outside game to beat Duke in an East Regional semifinal in Syracuse.
Everyone touts the youth of the Gators, but enough of them will remember their ignominious defeat to Gonzaga last year in a West Regional semifinal. That focus will be invaluable when the Gators advance to the Final Four after a challenging culture clash against Temple.
And we don't see a potential Duke-Kansas rematch of the 1991 national championship game in the second round. DePaul coach Pat Kennedy has turned in two very drab efforts recently, when his Demons folded late at home against Cincinnati and then to Saint Louis in the Conference USA Tournament.
However, Kansas has been skittish for most of the season. Though Jayhawks coach Roy Williams could beat Kennedy in a game of checkers while blindfolded, DePaul's superior athleticism will prevail as Kansas won't be able to establish tempo.
In the South, the defending national champions at UConn will be tested out of the gate against Utah State, which has the nation's longest current winning streak at 19 games. But the tourney-tested Huskies will prevail, until Tennessee shows that its woeful showing in the SEC Tournament was an aberration.
Vols guard Tony Harris will then have an all-around edge on Michael McDonald, the Cardinal guard whose lack of leadership against Arizona in Tucson last Thursday landed him on the bench for most of the final 14 minutes.
But Stanford is deep and strong, and the Volunteers will be out of the picture by halftime of a South Regional semifinal in Austin, Texas. The other semi should be the most-watched television adventure in the history of the Buckeye State.
The Cincinnati-Ohio State series is split at 4-4, and the two haven't played since they decided the national championship in Louisville. Cincinnati won that one by a dozen points, but 38 years later the Buckeyes will take a one-game lead in the battle.
It will take its toll, though, because the Bucks will be worn out two days later. Stanford smells blood as well as any team in the nation, and it will advance to its second Final Four in three years by beating Ohio State.
The Midwest is perhaps the grittiest regional, but the rest of those teams were given no favors when the grittiest team in the country, Michigan State, was lopped in with them.
It also has the tournament's best name, who happens to play on the underdog team of the tourney. Justin Love of Saint Louis took the C-USA tournament by storm, and Utah will be no match in a first-rounder. The Utes are gimpy and slow. Worse, they looked downright stupid at times in an embarrassing loss to BYU on Friday.
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| Rob Miech believes coach Billy Donovan and the Gators will march all the way to the final before falling to Michigan State.(AP) |
Syracuse doesn't have the mettle to hang with Michigan State, and the three-guards-and-Marcus Fizer attack of Iowa State will fall to Maryland's three-headed monster of Juan Dixon, Terence Morris and Lonny Baxter.
Then Michigan State will improve its lifetime record against Maryland to 2-0 in a tough Midwest final in the friendly confines of The Palace in Auburn Hills, Mich.
In the West, we're awaiting a second-round showdown between Purdue and Oklahoma with as much anticipation as a Tyson fight, with Eduardo Najera and the rest of the Okies winning the decision.
The other intriguing matchup is the first-round affair that pits Wisconsin's methodical coach, Dick Bennett, against Tark the Shark of Fresno State. The Bulldogs have shown flashes of that old amoeba defense from Jerry Tarkanian's celebrated UNLV days, but Bennett has seen it all.
Look for Courtney Alexander, the country's leading scorer, to reach for the Kleenex by halftime, because Wisconsin will badger him into a wide array of ill-conceived shots. It just won't be enough to carry the Badgers past Arizona in the second round.
And this is where we pick our upset of the tourney -- Indiana State over Texas.
The Longhorns too often forget about their best weapon, center Chris Mihm, and Gabe Muoneke is liable to draw two quick T's if a Sycamore simply looks at him wrong.
What the heck. We'll keep the upset thing going with the old standby, Gonzaga. Seeded 10th, the Zags will defeat seventh-seeded Louisville, second-seeded St. John's and third-seeded Oklahoma to reach their second consecutive West Regional final.
The key will be Casey Calvary, the 6-foot-8 junior power forward who feasts on the video game Mortal Kombat, during which he daydreams about ripping the head of an opponent on the court, before every game. A Final Four bid, though, will again be elusive because of Arizona's firepower.
Stromile Swift and LSU won't have the luxury of a rabid Pete Maravich Assembly Center crowd against Arizona in a West semifinal in Albuquerque. The Tigers rallied behind their home crowd to beat the Wildcats this season.
Yes, Arizona center Loren Woods played in that miserable outing and won't be around for this meeting. And, yes, Arizona is down to six scholarship players, if Justin Wessel's ankle injury keeps him on the shelf. That's just enough to make the Tigers overconfident.
And the players who can run for Arizona coach Lute Olson are pretty good. Their stamina is almost unmatched, and Michael Wright, Richard Jefferson and Luke Walton were more than solid in negating Stanford's fine post game last week.
Gardner and fellow frosh backcourt mate Gilbert Arenas will make national headlines for the next three weeks, before it ends for the Wildcats against Michigan State -- who will have Cleaves in the lineup this time against Arizona.
Then the experience and brawn of the Spartans carries them to the national championship over fun-and-gun Florida.
Kenyon Martin probably won't even watch.