Rest of the AFC East: Bills | Colts | Dolphins | Jets
1999 record: 8-8, tied for last in the AFC East.
Last five years: 44-36.
Coach: Bill Belichick (first year, 37-45
in five NFL seasons as a head coach).
Playoff past: The Patriots are 5-9 in postseason play since the
merger but
have been champions of the AFC East twice in the past five seasons,
back-to-back titles in 1996-97. New England twice has lost the title game,
a 46-10 defeat to Chicago in Super Bowl XX and a 35-21 loss to Green Bay in
Super Bowl XXXI.
Outlook
To all those critics who have questioned owner Bob Kraft's wisdom this
spring in surrendering the Patriots' first-round pick in the 2000 draft to
the New York Jets, to wrangle Bill Belichick out of the contract that
stipulated he succeed Bill Parcells, we say this: Hey, getting a guy we
suggest is the premier defensive mind of the NFL's last 15 years or so has
to be better than keeping a No. 1 pick and using it on another overpaid and
underachieving stiff.
Problem is, the naysayers and Belichick bashers are apt to look pretty
smart in the first season of the coach's second incarnation as an NFL
sideline chief. Not even all of those exotic defensive machinations
Belichick will scheme up for guys like linebacker Chris Slade, defensive
end Willie McGinest and headhunting strong safety Lawyer Milloy can keep
New England from regressing back to its Patsies persona once again.
The cupboard for Belichick isn't quite bare. But given all the additional
high-round draft choices the Patriots possessed the previous three
seasons -- a bounty reaped by allowing Parcells to escape from his contract
in 1997 and by permitting star tailback Curtis Martin to move to the Jets
as a restricted free agent one year later -- the team should be stocked a lot
better than it is. In essence, the Pats virtually had double draft choices
from 1997-99. What did they do with them?
The fact that personnel director Bobby Grier was summarily bounced out by
Belichick during the offseason offers a hint as to just how disappointing
the New England drafts have been. High-round selections like cornerback
Chris Canty, safety Tebucky Jones, tight end Rod Rutledge, tailback Robert
Edwards and wide receiver Tony Simmons have been either infirm or inept.
Next to that bunch, Belichick looks pretty darned good.
Unfortunately, he already looks pretty darned haggard as well. A week
into
training camp, even Belichick didn't know what to make of his team.
"Uh, can I get back to you on that one?" Belichick said. "We've still got
a
lot of people to look at and a lot of evaluation to do."
OK, so we are in a microscopic minority of media types who actually like
Belichick, and candor demands we confess to counting him as a friend. But
even his detractors have to feel sympathy for the mess he has inherited
with a New England team in decline. Nothing shy of brilliant when it comes
to drawing up X's, there simply isn't enough "O" to go around for Belichick.
An offense that might surround quarterback Drew Bledsoe with one of the
league's shabbiest blocking units is full of holes. Consider this
frightening reality: The starting tailback probably will be veteran Raymont
Harris, who wasn't even in the league in 1999 and has played fewer than a
full season's worth of games over the past three years. For now at least,
Bledsoe is saying all of the politically correct things. Come, say,
November, he might decide to run for public office, because he's likely to
be running for his life.
Count on Belichick to devise enough defensive gimmickry to keep games
close
and to bloody the noses of most opponents. Count on the offense, however,
to be rather anemic and to go into next spring in drastic need of a
transfusion.
Schedule preview: The Patriots will be tested immediately, opening
at home
against NFC Central champion Tampa Bay, and then going on the road to face
the Jets in what figures to be an awkward game for Belichick. At least the
"bye" week is well-placed, coming Oct. 29 after eight games. There is a
November-December stretch in which the Patriots play three out of four
games on the road.
1999 offensive ranking: No. 18 overall, No. 23 rushing, No. 10
passing.
1999 defensive ranking: No. 20 overall, No. 20 vs. the rush,
No. 21
vs. the pass.
Key players lost from 1999: TE Ben Coates (released), OT Zefross
Moss
(released), WR Shawn Jefferson (to Atlanta), RB Terry Allen (released), OG
Heath Irwin (to Miami), CB Steve Israel (to New Orleans), LB Marty Moore
(to Cleveland).
Key additions for 2000: RB Raymont Harris (out of football in '99), TE
Eric Bjornson (Cowboys), CB Antonio Langham (Browns), OT Grant Williams
(Seahawks).
Rookies to watch: The draft, to this point, has been a disaster
because
of injuries. OT Adrian Klemm (No. 2) had knee surgery in training camp and
will miss the entire preseason. RB J.R. Redmond (No. 3), who might have
pushed for the starting job at tailback, suffered a groin injury and has
practiced very little. TE Dave Stachelski (No. 5) had knee surgery, was
involved in an automobile accident and is considering retirement. Of
course, the teams' first-round choice went to the Jets as compensation for
Belichick.
Offensive line: In their preseason opener, at the Hall of Fame,
the
Patriots started no player with more than two years of NFL experience, and
that reflects the largest problem confronting an offense that is in
regression. New England released both starting tackles from 1999, Bruce
Armstrong and Zefross Moss, then was forced to re-sign the former when the
team's salary cap woes precluded it from acquiring an adequate replacement.
No fewer than five of the candidates for starting jobs had offseason
surgeries. Second-round draft choice Adrian Klemm, the Patriots' top pick,
probably would have challenged for the starting job at left tackle, but
injured a knee in minicamp and will miss the entire preseason. The one
bright light is second-year center Damien Woody, who struggled at times in
'99 but could become a Pro Bowl-caliber snapper.
Wide receivers/tight ends: This is the season when someone, either
Troy
Brown or Tony Simmons, is going to have to step up his game. Belichick has
been thrilled by the training camp performance of wideout Terry Glenn, a
notorious brooder who seemed to always be in the doghouse of Bill Parcells
or Pete Carroll. But Glenn, who caught 37 passes in the first five games of
'99 before tailing off and snatching just 32 the balance of the year, has
worked hard in camp to overcome the various stigmas he carries. The
departure of former Pro Bowl tight end Ben Coates means the starting job falls to Rod
Rutledge, who is only an adequate blocker and subpar receiver.
Running backs: Frankly, there are none. At least none capable of
being a
true feature-type back at the NFL level. The starting tailback by default
could be Raymont Harris, who didn't even play in the league last season.
Second-year veteran Kevin Faulk is too small to be an every-down back and
is best suited as a third-down player and kick returner. The stock of J.R.
Redmond plummeted before the draft, and the Patriots stole him in the third
round, but a groin injury has kept him from getting much work in camp. This
is a black hole, and the lack of a running game is apt to make New England
a one-dimensional offense.
Quarterbacks: Hello, one dimension, Drew Bledsoe. After seven
seasons, the
former first-round pick seems to have finally exorcised the demons: He
wouldn't play hurt. He was inconsistent. He disappeared in big games or in
the fourth quarter of tight contests. Bledsoe has become a real team leader
for the Patriots. Problem is, there isn't much of a team to lead. Given the
lack of a running game and the shabby condition of the offensive line,
Bledsoe could be asked to absorb a real beating this year. Belichick
appears determined to give second-year pro Michael Bishop, the former
Kansas State star, a legitimate chance at landing the No. 2 job. Bishop and
rookie Tom Brady will get most of the snaps in preseason, which probably
means veteran journeyman John Friesz will be cut loose.
Defensive line: In the 3-4 scheme preferred by Belichick, the
Patriots
will have to locate a two-gap nose tackle, and that could be Chad Eaton, a
classic overachiever who doesn't impress anyone in the eyeball test but
always plays hard. There isn't much bulk or much depth inside, and end
Willie McGinest, who two years ago signed a $5 million-a-year contract and
disappeared, is going to have to provide most of the upfield pressure.
McGinest will benefit from Belichick's ability to create one-on-one
mismatches for his speed rushers but must ratchet up the motor a bit and
become a double-digit sack guy.
Linebackers: If Ted Johnson can come back from two injury-marred
season to
anchor the middle, this will be the defense's best unit. Johnson is one of
the league's premier run stuffers and, while only a two-down player, the
heart of the New England defense. Like McGinest, the quick Chris Slade will
get more pass-rush opportunities in the new scheme, as will the solid Tedy
Bruschi, who nearly departed in free agency. Bruschi had a breakout season
in '99, is a terrific pass defender but will play coming forward more in
2000 than in the past. Andy Katzenmoyer looked lost at times during his '99
rookie season but got plenty of experience and can play inside or
outside.
Secondary: There are two Pro Bowl-caliber players in cornerback Ty Law
and
Lawyer Milloy, arguably the best strong safety in the league. There
are also huge question marks at left cornerback and free safety. Chris
Carter, who replaced the released Willie Clay at free safety in '99, proved
he wasn't ready to fill the savvy veteran's shoes. The left cornerback job
has become a revolving door of candidates. Former No. 1 pick Tebucky Jones,
a bust so far, gets the first shot again, but he still looks like more of a
strong safety. If he can't claim the starting spot, it could fall to
veteran Antonio Langham, whose psyche is scarred after two disastrous
seasons, or youngster Kato Serwanga. The talkative Law slipped considerably
in '99 after signing his huge contract and needs a bounce-back campaign.
Special teams: Kicker Adam Vinatieri seems to have lost some
confidence
after missing a few potential game-winning field goals last season and
punter Lee Johnson is only average. Troy Brown is a solid return man and a
kicker on the coverage units.