This looks like a year for Florida and Alabama to play a rematch in the SEC championship game.
The winner could be playing for a spot in the Orange Bowl, this year's Bowl Championship Series title game, or at worst settle for the Sugar Bowl.
Yet, in the East Division, let's not be too quick to dismiss Tennessee ... and by all accounts, this is Georgia's best team since Herschel Walker left Athens in 1982.
In the West, it's as simple as penciling in Alabama ... or is it? After all, LSU has been one of the great mysteries in college football over the past 10 years. And if Nick Saban can find the combination to that safe, look out.
Saban inherits a tradition-rich program that hasn't won an SEC championship since 1986 and has had eight losing seasons in the past 11 years. Saban becomes the fourth head coach since 1990 ... can he succeed where others have failed?
Question marks abound. First, he was 34-24-1 in five years at Michigan State. Gerry DiNardo was 33-24-1 in five years at LSU and got fired. The difference? In the past two years, DiNardo's Tigers were 7-15 while Saban's Spartans were 15-7.
Saban, 48, has hardly any college coaching experience in the South. Except for a two-year stint at West Virginia (secondary, 1978-79), he's been in the North, Northeast or NFL.
Yet, he brings strong credentials.
"He's a first-rate person and he's a marvelous football coach," said Bill Polian, president of the Indianapolis Colts. "He brings all the right values to the position and to the job. He believes in an exciting and up-tempo offense and yet his teams are always terrifically sound and very physical."
Perhaps Saban's no-nonsense approach is just what LSU needs. The Tigers return 17 starters and should be the most improved team in the league.
A jump from 3-8 to 8-3 wouldn't be a shock. A key is Saban instilling a winning attitude into a team that lost close games last season to Top 25 teams Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi State.
Saban might also benefit from the first-year magic enjoyed by several other SEC coaches who have inherited talented programs in the past 10 years.
- David Cutcliffe was 8-4 at Ole Miss last season.
- Houston Nutt started 8-0 his first season at Arkansas.
- Gerry DiNardo was 7-4 his first year at LSU.
- Brad Scott led South Carolina to its one and only bowl victory in 1994.
- Terry Bowden opened 11-0 at Auburn.
- Tennessee was 10-1 in Phillip Fulmer's regular-season debut.
- And Steve Spurrier went 9-2 in his first year.
LSU could challenge Alabama in the West Division if the quarterback position is productive and the defense plays up to its talent level.
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SEC bowl bids |
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Champion
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Bowl Championship Series
Orange Bowl if ranked 1 or 2, otherwise Sugar Bowl
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SEC No. 2
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Florida Citrus Bowl vs.
Big Ten #2
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SEC No. 3
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Cotton Bowl vs.
Big 12 #2
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SEC No. 4
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Outback Bowl vs.
Big Ten #3
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SEC No. 5
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Peach Bowl vs.
ACC #3
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SEC No. 6
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Music City vs.
Big East #4
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SEC No. 7
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Independence Bowl vs.
Big 12 team
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Alas, Alabama, which won the SEC championship for the first time since 1992, is a heavy favorite to win the league again. But there's nothing to say the Tide won't falter playing at Knoxville, at Baton Rouge and at Starkville ... leaving the door ajar for the Ole Miss Rebels or potentially resurgent Tigers to slip through.
Still, Alabama and Florida are the clear picks in the West and East ... but it won't be easy for either of them.
East Division
Here's Georgia's chance. The Bulldogs have the most talent in the East, but haven't been able to win the big games.
That gives the edge to Florida, particularly after Tennessee had nine players drafted, including five players who had college eligibility remaining.
Florida hasn't won the SEC Championship since its national championship team of 1996. So you can bet coach Steve Spurrier is antsy. He even apologized to his team at the end of last season for being too negative.
The Gators get the nod in the East because of defense, not Spurrier's Fun 'n' Gun offense. The defense, which ranked ninth in the nation against the run, returns an outstanding front four, led by Alex Brown and Gerard Warren, and four quality defensive backs.
Earnest Graham is one of the SEC's top backs and the Gator line should be good. But quarterback and receiver, long staples of Florida's attack, are shaky. Jesse Palmer struggled last season as Doug Johnson's backup. And wideouts Travis Taylor and Darrell Jackson, who combined for 101 catches, bypassed their senior seasons to turn pro.
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| Jesse Palmer steps in as Steve Spurrier's go-to QB this season.(Allsport) | |
Georgia only wishes things were that simple in Athens. The Bulldogs have underachieved the past two seasons, owing to their egg-laying performances against Florida and Tennessee.
Yet, Quincy Carter rates with the best quarterbacks in the nation; Jasper Sanks appears ready to top his 896-yard rushing season; the offensive line and receiving corps have great young talent.
The defense seems likely to show vast improvement under new coordinator Gary Gibbs (yes, the former Oklahoma head coach), who was hired to bolster a tumultuous situation in which the Bulldogs were actually last in the SEC under first-year coordinator Kevin Ramsey.
Georgia has the ability to win the league championship, rate in the top five nationally, and even take a run at the Orange Bowl ... but this is a program that has lost 10 straight to Tennessee and nine of 10 to Florida.
After five straight Top 10 finishes, Tennessee tumbles. The Vols must find a quarterback and rebuild the offensive line -- a difficult exacta.
Kentucky has the offense to beat anybody at any time, but not the defense. Vanderbilt has the defense to spike up this season (first bowl bid since 1982?). And South Carolina can't possibly extend its national-longest 21-game losing streak too much longer ... can it?
West Division
The West has been a wide-open tussle in most seasons lately, with four different programs capturing the division title in the past five years.
Yet, Alabama appears ready to return to the state of dominance it enjoyed for so much of the past 40 years. After losing an un-Alabama-like 12 games in two seasons, the youthful Crimson Tide rebounded last season in a big way.
Now they're loaded with experience. The Tide lost two first-round draft choices -- offensive lineman Chris Samuels and running back Shaun Alexander -- but anything short of another West Division title would be a major disappointment to the 18 returning starters.
SEC line play has always been important, and Alabama has outstanding offensive and defensive lines.
Andrew Zow and Tyler Watts are quality quarterbacks, and if DuBose can get the most out of them -- as he did at the end of last season -- the Tide will be potent even with four tag-team tailbacks. Wideout Freddie Milons is one of the SEC's top big-play athletes.
And, of course, Alabama always wins with defense. The line features bookends Kindal Moorehead and Kenny King. Saleem Rasheed is the next in a great line of Bama linebackers. The secondary returns all four starters.
Ole Miss is dangerous, too, especially with that offense that will keep the Rebels firing away in any game. Tailbacks Deuce McAllister and Joe Gunn combined for 1,760 yards last year, when Romaro Miller passed for 1,999 and had a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
But the Rebels must play Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia on the road.
Mississippi State is always dangerous, but the Bulldogs also are always offensively challenged and they lose eight starters off the SEC's best defense. Auburn is improving, but still is a ways away from making a run, and Arkansas' lineup is too young to contend.
That leaves Alabama ... and perhaps LSU.
Lindy's Football Annuals (National, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, ACC, plus Pro) are available at newsstands regionally, or can be ordered as a set at
www.lindyssports.com, or by calling 1-205-871-1182.
