The carpet awaits.
The one coaches get called on by their bosses -- and not because they're getting a bonus.
We've speeded up the process for 2001.
In the dead of summer we thought it would be a good idea to check into the job security of all 117 Division I-A college football coaches. Subjectively, of course. But with athletic directors getting increasingly itchy trigger fingers, it never hurts to let a coach know where he stands.
We assigned a numerical value to each coach in Division I-A, ranging from zero "don't even think about it" ... to five "must win now!"
| Hot-seat ratings (0-5 scale) |
| -- Typical example |
5.0: On the Hot Seat
... must win now (3 "members") |
| -- Terry Allen, Kansas |
| -- Cam Cameron, Indiana |
| -- Tom Holmoe, California |
4.5-3.5: Warm seat
... better have a good year (9) |
| -- R.C. Slocum, Texas A&M |
3.0-2.5: You never know
... but not in immediate trouble (23) |
| -- Frank Solich, Nebraska |
2.0-1.5: In a safe place
... relatively speaking, of course (35) |
| -- David Cutcliffe, Ole Miss |
1.0-0.5: Very safe
... probably very new (26) |
| -- Chuck Amato, N.C. State |
0.0: Rock-solid
... Don't even think about it (21) |
| -- Mike Bellotti, Oregon |
The 21 "zeroes" are anything but that as coaches, but also were fairly easy to assess. Just call them The Institutions -- Paterno, Bowden, Spurrier, Alvarez, etc. It will be their choice to leave their job, not the school's idea.
It's the 4s and 5s -- coaches under moderate to tremendous pressure -- who are trying to keep their jobs. Three coaches, in this view, might do well to check with real estate agents -- Cal's Tom Holmoe, Indiana's Cam Cameron and Kansas' Terry Allen.
Holmoe is in trouble after a 3-8 season (15-29 overall) because he has a new boss, athletic director Steve Gladstone, the former director of crew. Yes, that's right, crew, as in rowing (something Cal is good in).
Cameron arrived in the Big Ten the same year as Minnesota's Glen Mason, Purdue's Joe Tiller and Illinois' Ron Turner. Among the four only Cameron hasn't been to a bowl game.
Allen is a dread man walking. Athletic director Bob Frederick resigned under pressure during the offseason, in part because he hired Allen instead of pursuing Dennis Franchione four years ago. If Allen doesn't put together Kansas' first winning season in six years while beating Kansas State for the first time in nine years, he can expect to be ... well, dispossessed of a job.
Right behind that win-now-or-else group is Vanderbilt's Woody Widenhofer. Woody has been able to schmooze 'em with a charming personality in Nashville but his 13-31 record in four years still squeaks volumes.
In this age of wide-open offenses, the Commodores are behind the curve, finishing 89th in total offense last year. Widenhofer, with a career record of only 25-62-1, is rated at 4.5, somewhere between "better win" and "must win now."
The small number of coaches on the hot seat reflects the relative calm going into this season.
This list comes in the wake of 25 job openings since last season because of resignations, firings or retirements. That number was the most in 20 years.
One question is, who will be the "upset victims" this year?
In January, John Cooper was fired at Ohio State after winning 70 percent of his games. A couple of years ago, Jim Lambright suddenly flamed out at Washington. The previous year, John Mackovic was shown the door at Texas just 12 months after winning the Big 12 championship.
Yet, we come not to bury coaches but to praise them too. The difference between the kings of the sport (zeroes) and the "1s" is significant. Most of those labeled "very safe" are in that honeymoon period, first-year coaches who can do no wrong before they actually do.
Think John Bunting at North Carolina or Rich Rodriguez at West Virginia.
Auburn's Tommy Tuberville (1.5) would be equally secure except that the presence of booster-banker-career sinker Bobby Louder makes any Auburn coach's future tenuous.
Same for Texas coach Mack Brown (1.5). Twenty-seven victories the past three years still haven't kept some critics quiet. They want a conference title, or better, to go along with all the hype (and money).
The difference between a "2" (safe) and a "3" (you never
know) is slight, and subject to quick change.
Sometimes it depends on the lay of the carpet ... and just how close the next season comes to matching expectations.