You laugh.

Frank Beamer and Virginia Tech regularly exceed preseason expectations.(AP)

OK, it might not turn out exactly how we described it, but it's hardly more crazy than if we had said 10 years ago that Northwestern would have three Big Ten titles, Kansas State would be a Top 10 program and Oregon State would be all the rage.

So there.

A look at the past 10 seasons of rankings from The Associated Press, both preseason and postseason, show almost incomprehensible changes in the college football landscape.

We took each year's polls, and assigned 25 points for a first-place vote, 24 for second place ... down to one point for finishing 25th. This gives us a Top 25 of the past 10 years.

Then we totaled each team's points from the 10 seasons and compared the preseason with the postseason ... which indicates which teams were most underrated and overrated.

Significantly, a look back to 1991 reminds us how wild things can be through 2011. In '91, remember:

• The Big East was in its inaugural season.
• Florida State was still an independent.
• The Southwest Conference was alive and well.
• The WAC was still the WAC.
• Marshall was six seasons away from joining Division I-A.
• Kansas State had won 28 games over the previous 10 years.
• The Rose Bowl was a bitter rival with the other major bowls. The Bowl Championship Series? What the heck is a Bowl Championship Series?

But from there to here, through all the surprises and transformations, perhaps the most shocking result is that, at the very top, there is nothing shocking at all.

The data reveals that there is small pocket of elite teams which not even a tidal wave of change can touch.

Talk about consistency and predictability: Florida State, Florida, Nebraska and Michigan -- in order -- fill the top four spots in the preseason and postseason polls. (Hey, maybe sportswriters really do know what they're talking about.)

The Big Four are the only teams to finish in the rankings in each of the past 10 years and have cornered the market on major hardware with six national championships and five Heisman trophies.

After that, Miami, Tennessee and Penn State are tied for fifth in the preseason, but break down this way in the postseason: Vols at No. 5, 'Canes at No. 6, Lions at No. 7.

And then, things begin to get crazier.

Most overrated team

What in the name of O.J. Simpson has happened to USC?

The Trojans:

• Were picked as a preseason Top 25 team eight times in the past 10 seasons, but only managed a piddling No. 13 in 1994 and a No. 12 in '95.
• Are the only Pac-10 team not to finish in the top 10 in the past decade.
• Don't have as many points in the decade's cumulative rankings as Northwestern, Colorado State or Washington State.

"Whenever you see USC on the schedule, teams seem to get up for us. We must do the same," said Trojans cornerback Darrell Rideaux. "But you go to 'SC knowing about the tradition and the expectations. If you can't stand the heat, then don't go to 'SC."

Things have changed so much that when the letters USC are mentioned in a college football context ... South Carolina just might be the first team that comes to mind.

Three fading teams

• Penn State: A 5-7 season came on the heels of a 1999 fade, and JoePa's Lions won't even be picked to finish in the top five of a bland Big Ten this season. From 1991 to 1997, Penn State had four Top 10 finishes. Since then, none.
• Syracuse: Even with Donovan McNabb around for four seasons, the Orangemen failed to finish higher than 19th since the 1992 season. They have been out of the rankings at the end of the past two seasons.
• Texas A&M: The beat from the Aggies' Top 10 past (1992-94) is growing fainter, while the competition in the Big 12 is getting hotter.

Most underrated team

Kansas State kept fooling the prognosticators through the early '90s, unable to bust into the preseason Top 25 until 1996.

The Wildcats were 165 games below .500 in their history when Bill Snyder was hired in 1989, but they began to turn it around a few years following his arrival, although who really noticed? From 1993-1995, Kansas State won 28 games and appeared in three bowl games ... and still no preseason ranking.

For a program that had been as bad as Kansas State's, seeing and seeing and seeing some more was believing.

K-State now has the top 10 reputation to match its top 10 talent. That's where they have finished in five of the past six seasons, so the Wildcats are being snubbed no more ... except perhaps by BCS officials, but that's another story.

Three rising teams

• Oregon: The Ducks have seven consecutive winning records (nobody else in the Pac-10 has more than two), and have finished in the top 20 in four of those years, including a best-ever No. 7 ranking last season. And yet Oregon has never been ranked in an AP preseason poll. That will change this year.
• Virginia Tech: It took Michael Vick for the college football world to take notice, but the Hokies have been a lot more than just a flashy quarterback, ending with a better ranking than they began with in five of the past six seasons.
• Purdue: The Boilermakers have exceeded their preseason expectations in each of Joe Tiller's four seasons, which included a Rose Bowl appearance last season.

Trivia time

Of the 63 teams from the six major conferences (plus Notre Dame), all but nine have finished in the AP Top 25 in the past 10 seasons. Which nine have not? (Answer below)

No such thing as a sure thing

In nine of the past 10 seasons, at least one team has been a major-league heartbreaker, beginning in the top 10 and tumbling out of the Top 25 by season's end.

The biggest fall for a preseason No. 1-ranked team? Penn State in 1997, to No. 16.

A No. 2 team has disappeared (Notre Dame, 1994).

A No. 3 team went screaming to the bottom of the pile (Alabama, 2000).

But No. 4 has been the spot to avoid.

• 1997: Washington got as high as No. 2, but lost its last three regular-season games, including the one that sent Washington State to the Rose Bowl. The Huskies salvaged a No. 18 ranking with a bowl win over Michigan State.
• 1998: If not for a 12-game regular-season and bowl game, Nebraska's streak of consecutive seasons with at least nine victories (now 32) would have gone pffffft. After a 9-4 season, Nebraska's final ranking of 19 was its worst since 1990.
• 1999: Arizona got smoked in its opener at Penn State, and then the Wildcats spent the rest of the season wondering what hit them. Arizona had lots of time in the offseason to think about it, too, because it finished an un-bowlworthy 6-6.
• 2000: With all kind of shoe troubles, Wisconsin got off on the, uh, wrong foot. Only a narrow victory over UCLA in the Sun Bowl allowed the Badgers to peek back into the final poll, at No. 23.

Trivia answer

Duke, Maryland (ACC); Indiana (Big Ten); Baylor (Big 12); Pitt, Rutgers, Temple (Big East); Vanderbilt, Kentucky (SEC).