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Get ready for some frenzied NBA trading
Maybe it's time to break out the red, white and blue ball again, encourage on-court fights and let high school refs handle the fracas.
This is what happens when you intentionally scrap the first three months of the regular season in a lockout, agree to the terms of a new collective bargaining agreement, then struggle to sign it. As one NBA general manager said, "Do you know when they're going to get that thing finished? Nobody has told us anything and we're supposed to start the season on Feb. 5?" GOOD POINT. WITH MICHAEL JORDAN RETIRED, and young stars like Shawn Kemp checking in at more than 290 pounds, this will be a season to remember. And the NBA is counting on that. It will be such a mutation of what we have come to expect over the past 15 years when it comes to quality of play, there could be some real interesting results. Don't expect the Denver Nuggets to win the Western Conference or anything, but they will win more than 11 games ... perhaps as many as 20 with new coach Mike D'Antoni. Now that Michael Jordan has retired and the Bulls under new head coach Tim Floyd will resemble an expansion team, the popular team to choose as the next NBA champion is the Indiana Pacers. The Utah Jazz also have been talked about a lot. Also falling into line are the Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, Seattle SuperSonics and San Antonio Spurs. Add the New York Knicks out of habit, the Orlando Magic may be a threat and the Houston Rockets could put together an interesting veteran team to fill out the group of most-likely-to-succeed possibilities. Most of the focus on the Jazz and Pacers is based on experience. Conventional wisdom these days says the older players took better care of themselves during the protracted layoff and will be far better prepared to get off to fast starts in a 50-game season. On the other hand, you take the most talented team in the league -- unquestionably the Lakers -- who with their youth are capable of sprinting all the way in (unless Shaquille O'Neal added weight relative to Kemp's, he'll be coming in at about 330 or so). However, the Pacers have been playing together for months -- at least 10 players have gathered in suburban Indianapolis for daily workouts -- and this will very likely pay rapid dividends for the team that took the 1998 champion Bulls to the final minute of Game 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals. BEFORE ANY MORE BOLD PREDICTIONS COME FLYING, consider the simple fact there are still 200 free agents to sign -- which is essentially half the league by the time all the cuts are made. There remain disagreements in the CBA based on the length of exceptions and some of the details regarding the new drug policy. And remember, there are exhibition games scheduled for next week. "Don't waste the company money or your time with exhibition games," another NBA GM said. "It's going to be tough enough to make the regular season games NBA quality. The exhibition games will be nothing more than that ... exhibition games. Hell, we don't even know the rules of the agreement yet, don't have our rosters complete and the regular season is supposed to start in a little more than two weeks?" "Yeah, right." With all that coming down, let's take a look at the top five free agents at each position, where they'll likely land and some other possibilities. Point guards1. Rod Strickland, Washington ... he'll stay with the Wizards. 2. Damon Stoudamire, Portland ... he'll be with the Blazers. 3. Charlie Ward, New York ... the Knicks probably will re-sign him, but there is interest out there in Detroit and possibly Chicago. 4. Derek Harper, Orlando ... the Magic may want to keep him, but he is 37 years old and some teams that think there is a chance to win the title, may take a flier like the Heat, Sonics, Lakers and Pacers. 5. Kevin Johnson, Phoenix ... the Suns don't want him any more and maybe the Lakers do. The Sonics have made some minor inquiries and the Kings may want him for hometown value. But he's brittle, plays no defense and monopolizes the ball. Shooting guards 1. Terry Porter, Minnesota ... he's a shooting guard in point guard's clothing, still. Aging, but a great guy, hard-nosed and a terrific 3-point shooter, he'll help somebody. Could be the Sonics, back to the Blazers or even the Lakers. He wants to win and will help. 2. Jimmy Jackson, Golden State ... his value has fallen like a low-tech stock. There are some teams in the East interested, but chances are, he'll stay with the W's and take what they offer. He'll probably be traded. 3. Brent Barry, Miami ... The Heat just pulled out of the Sprewell chase, which means Barry could end up in Chicago as a free agent signing by the Bulls. 4. Rex Chapman, Phoenix ... the Sonics are interested in Chapman, but don't have the money to get him, so expect him to re-sign with the Suns. 5. Dell Curry, Charlotte ... the sweetest shooter around, mellow Dell isn't going anywhere (see power forwards for explanation). Small forwards 1. Scottie Pippen, Chicago ... follows Jordan's footsteps out of town, and what looked like a free agent walk to Houston without any remuneration has become a trade for draft picks and Roy Rogers. Houston will pay Rogers' salary, and the Bulls will cut him and deal with the cap space. Evidently Pippen found it more attractive to earn about $10 million dollars more by allowing the Bulls to trade him than sticking it to the two Jerrys. 2. Jerry Stackhouse, Detroit ... has moved from the likely shooting guard slot to small forward because he's not a good enough ball-handler or shooter to be a guard. His stock is comparable to Jackson's, only Jackson had some outstanding NBA seasons. Stackhouse is a mid-90's prototype, all style, no substance to his game. He'll stick with the Pistons for lack of offers. 3. Clifford Robinson, Phoenix ... another hybrid who would be in the power forward category. He's too good to not be on any list, so he's on this one and he'll join Stackhouse in Detroit to add size and rebounding. 4. Cedric Ceballos, Dallas ... the prototype trash player, he'll stick with the Mavs because too many teams have tired of his act. No defense, bad ballhandling and although he has surprisingly improved his shooting range, he's not a guy teams in the hunt want to have around because he's so selfish. 5. Rick Fox, L.A. Lakers ... the Lakers have other agendas going on that don't include Fox and he knows it. The Atlanta Hawks figure he's the small forward they've never had and that's the best guess of his destination. Power Forwards 1. Jayson Williams, New Jersey ... he's signed and delivered and soon to be sealed with the Nets for seven years and $100 million if the Nets want him for that final season. A tenacious rebounder, the Nets couldn't afford to let him go and nobody else could afford to get him. 2. Antonio McDyess, Phoenix ... there now seems little doubt McDyess will ironically end up back in Denver, the place from which deposed GM Allan Bristow traded him for draft choices and for cap room. With Bristow gone and McDyess having fired his agent Arn Tellem, his new agent James Bryant also has Nuggets guard Nick Van Exel (McDyess' new best friend). Too bad Bristow didn't ring Tellem's neck when he had a chance in the Kendall Gill negotiations many moons ago. 3. Tom Gugliotta, Minnesota ... Googs figured to be bound for Denver or Phoenix or even the Lakers, but it has settled down to him very likely sticking with the 'Wolves after all. Not only can they pay him the most money, it's a team on the rise where he fits just right. 4. Charles Barkley, Houston ... The Chuckster watched the Tyson fight with Gary Payton and Vin Baker, sparking the inevitable likelihood of him going to the Sonics. But not now that Pippen is Houston bound. He'll take the $1.75 million exception and play for a championship. 5. Derrick Coleman, Philadelphia ... The Sixers gave him more than $5.6 million just to end his contract and he has agreed to terms with Charlotte. DC and Anthony Mason on the same team? This is why the Hornets have to keep Curry, who will be a peacemaker. Centers 1. Rik Smits, Indiana ... this is only a formality, since he has been practicing with this Pacers teammates throughout the lockout. They'll re-sign him the day the lockout ends. 2. Vlade Divac, Charlotte ... he may stay because of money constraints, but there are plenty of teams jockeying for position. The former Laker misses L.A. enough that he might even sign with the Clippers. The Suns are very interested, so are the Kings and Sonics. But the money appears to be prohibitive for the latter two. 3. Ike Austin, L.A. Clippers ... he would rather leave the Clippers, with the Suns and Jazz the most likely targets. Both have bowed out. Now it seems the Magic and the Hornets are the most actively contending they like Ike. 4. Luc Longley, Chicago ... like Jordan, Pippen, Dennis Rodman and Steve Kerr, he's gone, too. The Suns reportedly already have an agreement with him. He sure is talented. He sure is unproductive. Think the desert will motivate him? 5. Matt Geiger, Charlotte ... nobody has worked harder at developing his game than Geiger and that's where the cap money in Philly -- opened up by Coleman's exit -- will land. OTHERS: Joe Smith and Theo Ratliff will stay with the Sixers, who are suddenly very large with the addition of Geiger. Unless, of course, the Hornets come back at the Sixers for stealing Geiger and sign Smith or Ratliff ... Loy Vaught and Dale Ellis will both land with the Sonics, who are threatening to be the oldest and slowest team (with the exception of Gary Payton) this franchise has seen since the mid-80's. ... Rodman is more likely to end up on a bad action TV show than an NBA team. Milwaukee, just because coach George Karl loves those characters, may take a run at him ... Kerr will be on the Spurs. AND FURTHERMORE: Also out there is a package of Jermaine O'Neal and Brian Grant from Portland. They took a swipe at Penny Hardaway and Sprewell, failing with both. The Blazers will re-sign Stoudamire and Arvydas Sabonis, but they want a Pippen-like player as their be-all guy ... The Sonics also have been dangling Detlef Schrempf and Hersey Hawkins out there to get younger and more athletic, but the market for aging, slow guys had dried up fast ... Will the Lakers ever trade Elden Campbell and Eddie Jones? Maybe for Chris Webber. Maybe. It's still hard to believe Webber will stay in Sacramento. In fact, general manager Geoff Petrie reportedly quit last week, then returned when Jim Thomas sold the majority ownership of the team to George Maloof, a former partner with the Houston Rockets. It's nuts out there. Where's Darnell Hillman when you really need him?<>
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