By Dennis Dodd
SportsLine Senior Writer

Who's No. 1?

Not in the polls. We're talking the jockeying for top seeds on the first line of the NCAA Tournament bracket. The mega-powers have little else to play for this week during conference tournaments. But that story inside the story could decide their seasons.

First, consider that a No. 1 seed has never lost a first-round game and six of the nine champions in the '90s have been No 1s. Let's start with the locks. Michigan State and Duke are set. No matter what the Big Ten and ACC champions do -- or don't do -- this week, it's virtually certain they have locked up No. 1 seeds and will play close to home.

Duke rolled through the ACC 16-0 and deserves playing in Charlotte, N.C., in the first and second-round site in the East region. Michigan State ruled the best conference in the country this season and deserves a first-round break at the Midwest region in Milwaukee.

That leaves a Russian Roulette for the No. 1 seeds in the West and South. There's no question that Connecticut and Auburn deserve top seeds at this moment but who is going to travel West? Right now popular opinion has UConn making the trip West to play in Denver in the first and second rounds. Auburn would start at Orlando, Fla., in the South.

Why? The reasoning might come down to a slightly better performance by Auburn down the stretch. UConn did itself no favors by scratching out a 57-56 victory over ninth-seeded Seton Hall Thursday in the Big East quarterfinals.

That lends further momentum to Auburn's push to stay near home. The Tigers finished 9-1, blemished only by a 16-point blowout at Arkansas on Feb. 24. The Huskies were 8-2 down the stretch with home losses to Miami and Syracuse.

The NCAA selection committee has to ask this basic question: UConn has Final Four potential but is it playing like a Final Four team? Judging by the Seton Hall game, the answer seems obvious.

That could leave an opening for Stanford or Utah. The Pac-10 champions still have a chance to move up to a top seed. The Cardinal stumbled in February losing to USC and UConn. But going into Thursday night's game against Oregon they had won four straight. If either Auburn or UConn stumble this week, pencil Stanford back in for a No. 1.

Utah might be the best team in the country right now but is hidden in typical WAC anonymity. The Utes, coming off an NCAA championship game loss, have won 18 straight.

UConn and Rick Hamilton better open up their eyes before they see a No. 1 seed slip away.(AP)

It is imperative, then, that Auburn and UConn win their conference tournaments to protect those No. 1 seeds. If Stanford wins out against Oregon and Oregon State and Utah wins the WAC tournament, then the selection committee will have some tough choices to make.

"We want as best we can to accommodate the higher-seeded teams by keeping them within their geographical region," said C.M. Newton, chair of the selection committee. "We would look at such things, when were they last sent out of region and where were they sent."

HERE'S THE HISTORICAL SKINNY on recent regional placements:

Utah

• 1998 -- No. 3 West
• 1997 -- No. 2 West
• 1996 -- No. 4 Midwest
• 1995 -- No. 4 West
• 1994 -- Didn't qualify

Stanford

• 1998 -- No. 3 Midwest
• 1997 -- No. 6 West
• 1996 -- No. 9 East
• 1995 -- No. 10 East
• 1994 -- Didn't qualify

UConn

• 1998 -- No. 2 East
• 1997 -- Didn't qualify
• 1996 -- No. 1 Southeast
• 1995 -- No. 2 West
• 1994 -- No. 2 East

Auburn

• Has not been to the tournament since 1988

What all this means is that no one wants to go out West except on vacation. The West is usually short of quality teams leaving Midwestern or Eastern teams long trips and strange beds. Don't think the committee will send the Huskies across three time zones to start in Seattle if it doesn't have to.

TWICE SINCE SEEDING BEGAN in 1979, top seeds have been sent across three time zones (East to West). Georgetown went from Washington, D.C., to Pullman, Wash., In 1984 in what might amount to the longest first-round trip ever taken. St. John's traveled from Jamaica, N.Y., to Long Beach, Calif., In 1986.

Is UConn next?

"We'll do what we have to," one NCAA selection committee member said.

Other issues this weekend...

Bubble update

As a public service, we offer this summary of what bubble teams have to do to get in the bracket.

New Mexico. Coach Dave Bliss did a horrendous job of assembling a non-conference schedule in order to rack up easy victories. You better believe that the committee sees right through that scheme despite the presence of Lobos athletic director Rudy Davalos on the committee.

"I'm frankly concerned about who they chose to play in their non-conference schedule," Newton said "because one of the things the committee has tried to do over the past number of years is to encourage people ... to go ahead and try to play your way into the tournament.

Bliss has whined about being able to get games but there is no excuse for playing Simon Fraser, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Texas-Pan American, Cal State-Sacramento and McNeese State.

New Mexico rallied late in the season with a five-game winning streak but was embarrassed by Utah in the regular-season finale. The Lobos will have to roll through Thursday night's quarterfinal game with Rice, and reach at least the WAC title game, to secure a spot in the NCAA tournament.

If the committee does allow the Lobos it would set precedent. No team with an RPI higher than 69 has made it. New Mexico came into Thursday's play No. 89 in the CBS SportsLine RPI.

Rutgers. With a first-round victory over Pittsburgh in the Big East Tournament, the Scarlet Knights (18-11) put themselves in great position. The victory broke a four-game losing streak and added validation to a 9-9 conference mark.

Despite a 2-8 record against teams in the bracket, Rutgers' has an RPI of 43.

Rhode Island. It might take an Atlantic 10 title by the Rams (17-12) to get in. They are 7-3 in their last 10 but are only 1-6 against teams in the tournament.

Purdue-Minnesota. The first-round games for those teams might decide if there is a seventh team from the Big Ten. Actually, Purdue has a better tournament profile at 7-9 in the conference than Minnesota does at 8-8. The Boilermakers played a slightly better non-conference schedule. Both teams are 4-6 in their last 10.

The Mississippis (Mississippi and Mississippi State). We have the Rebels in the bracket based on their record and RPI of 41. The Bulldogs have a bit more work to do in the SEC tournament. They might have to get to the championship game. Both teams were 18-11 coming into Thursday's games.

Nebraska. Three weeks ago the Huskers were talking Big 12 title, now they have to win two games in the Big 12 tournament to get in. The second game would most likely be against Kansas, which Nebraska has beaten twice this season for the first time since 1983.

California. A middling February (4-3) was highlighted by victories over Arizona and UCLA. Victories in the final two games would give the Bears an 18-10 overall record and lift them to 9-9 in the Pac-10. That might be enough considering the Pac-10's RPI is No. 3.

Wake Forest. The experts say a victory over North Carolina State on Friday gets them in. We'll see. The Deacons were 1-8 against teams in the SportsLine bracket.

Best conference tourneys

ACC for tradition. Enough said.

WAC for desperation. The conference could get anywhere from one to four teams in the field. It's a mad scramble for the likes of Tulsa, Fresno State, UNLV and New Mexico.

Conference USA for the stories. Louisville back in the dance, thanks to the NCAA. Huggy Bear still clinging to hope for a No. 1 seed for his Bearcats. Host Alabama-Birmingham trying to use the home-court advantage to get in the tournament.

Big 12. During the Big Eight days, the tournament was second only to the ACC in terms of prestige. It's lost a little with the addition of the Texas schools and boring Thursday first-round games. But when things heat up (i.e. Kansas-Missouri) it's still one of the best.