By Jerry Stone
Senior Handicapping Analyst
AXCIS Information Network (TrackMaster)
May 3, 1997

Here is an analysis of the Kentucky Derby with the entrants listed in post position order. Each horse is listed by Program Number -- Name -- Current odds. A discussion of each horses' pedigree, training, and relative chances to find themselves in the winner's circle is shown for each entrant.

In what looks like a very competitive race, it looks like the main contenders can be narrowed down to six. Who takes control of the pace is a key issue here, as most of these like to do their running from off the pace. We could see a very exciting finish.

Over the years, I've found that the Derby winner is the usually the one who is prepared up to peak on race day. This takes enormous skill on the part of all involved and, of course, the cooperation of the horse. All things considered I believe the winner will be one of three colts -- CAPTAIN BODGIT, SILVER CHARM, and PULPIT.

A very interesting field is assembled here, from the blue-blooded Pulpit to Free House, whose sire stands for a mere $500! What is presented here are what I think are facts relevant to the running of the race. I hesitate to make selections, but will do so by popular demand. They are listed at the end of this page in order of preference.

2 - CRYPTO STAR (4-1)

• Pedigree Cryptoclearance - One I Love (Sir Ivor)
• Record 6 4-1-1 $592,030
• Owner Darrell and Evelyn Yates
• Breeder Hargus and Sandra Sexton and Philip Teinowitz (KY)
• Trainer Wayne Catalano
• Jockey Pat Day

Pedigree: Sire Cryptoclearance was a classic contender, winning the Florida Derby and running 3rd in the Preakness at 3 en route to winning over $3 million over 44 starts. Crypto Star, like his sire, takes his time to get running, but he possesses the same lethal late kick as his sire. Dam sire Sir Ivor has sired several European Classic winners, and is known for passing on stamina to his offspring. Dosage Profile: 7 - 9 - 9 - 0 - 1 DI = 3.72 CD = 0.80 A nicely balanced pedigree with a bit of slant towards Intermediate and Classic influences. Bottom line - he'll get the distance.

Training: Despite positive words from his trainer, Crypto Star has not impressed with his appearance at Churchill. He worked 7F in slow 1:31 over the track which is not a good sign, considering most recent Derby winners have shown at least one "good" drill within three weeks before the race. He never has been a flashy work horse though. Should there be rain on Derby Day this colt gets extra points.

Summary: Despite the fact that his Arkansas Derby speed figure has been open to question (too high) he has to be considered a major contender coming into the race ... He's the best closer in the field, but the pace of the race should be honest, if not a bit on the slow side possibly compromising his chances ... Even though his works have been slow, he'll be a factor coming down the stretch and I would not leave him out of exacta or trifecta plays given the price he's likely to be ... Comes off two top efforts and he may have peaked in the Arkansas Derby ... Playable if you can stand "patient" Pat Day waiting until the last possible moment to let him run.

3 - PHANTOM ON TOUR (16-1)

• Pedigree: Tour d'Or - White Wool Socks (Whitesburg)
• Record 8 5-3-0 $295,605
• Owner W. Cal Partee
• Breeder Luann Baker (OH)
• Trainer Lynn Whiting
• Jockey Jerry Bailey

Pedigree: Only one other Ohio bred has won the Derby, that being Wintergreen back in 1909. He's already outrun his obscure pedigree question as to whether he can go this far. Dosage Profile: 5 - 2 - 3 - 0 - 0 DI = 5.67 CD = 1.20 His pedigree clearly is slanted towards speed, and his running style shows that trait. In the Arkansas Derby he was keen to take the lead early and that move may have cost him the race. For pure dosage fans, he's an automatic throwout as a win contender.

Training: His April 24 7F work of 1:26 could be termed "OK". This colt needs to learn how to relax so there's no need for his trainer to try and work him too fast.

Summary: Colt has reportedly had an abnormal white blood cell (possible infection) count this week. May not be 100% by Saturday...Trainer Lynn Whiting is taking the exact same route to the Derby as he did with Lil E. Tee in 1992. That colt finished 2nd in the Arkansas Derby and parlayed that into a Derby win ... This guy's an eye catcher, and with those distinctive four white socks and big white blaze on this nose is easy to spot on the track. During the post parade for both the Southwest Stakes and Arkansas Derby he just exuded classic positive body language. Look for it on Saturday ... His pedigree and running style will likely leave him vulnerable to a strong finisher and expect him to come up a bit short when the real running begins. He may have the lead as the field turns for home ... Jockey switch to Jerry Bailey from Larry Melancon is a tough call, as the latter knows the horse but gave a questionable ride in the Arkansas Derby. Bailey seems to shine in big races...Tough call, but have to toss out as a win contender.

4 - CONCERTO (10-1)

• Pedigree: Chief's Crown - Undeniably (In Reality)
• Record 10 7-1-2 $760,234
• Owner Kinsman Stable (George Steinbrenner)
• Breeder Kinsman Farm (KY)
• Trainer John Tammaro III
• Jockey Carlos Marquez Jr

Pedigree: Chief's Crown was 2 year old champion in 1984 and who ran 2nd in the Preakness and 3rd in the Kentucky Derby at 3. Though himself sired by noted speed influence Danzig, he seems to pass on stamina to his offspring. Dosage Profile: 9 - 7 - 10 - 0 - 0 DI 4.20 CD 0.96 Without any points on the stamina side of his pedigree and a DI of 4.20 he should be fine up to 1 1/8 miles, but questionable beyond that.

Training: A rather slow 1:33 7F work in the mud Monday, not much to brag about.

Summary: Does nothing flashy, except win, win, win...A winner at 6 different tracks, so don't worry too much about whether he handles the CD surface, despite the poor work. What is a concern, though, is whether he can get 1 1/4 miles faster than the rest of the field and my belief is that he can't ... Been ducking the top contenders all spring, and while that may have bolstered his confidence, there is a serious question as the whether he could hold off some of the stronger finishers here ... Was 2nd to Captain Bodgit last year at Laurel, which was also the last time he lost, and he hasn't faced any of the top contenders since...Handles off tracks well, so reconsider if the track comes up wet ... George may have to wait for another year to complete the World Series -- Kentucky Derby double ... Will try to win one for his sire, who was put down this week from complications stemming from a leg injury.

5 - CAPTAIN BODGIT (3-1)

• Pedigree: Saint Ballado - Answering Echo (Greek Answer)
• Record 10 7-0-3 $769,749
• Owner Team Valor
• Breeder Edward Wiest
• Trainer Gary Capuano
• Jockey Alex Solis

Pedigree: Captain Bodgit is a grandson of Halo, one of the world's more successful stallions (sire of Derby winners Sunny's Halo and Sunday Silence, and champion Devil's Bag). His Sire is a full brother to Glorious Song, who was a Canadian Horse of the Year and broodmare of such stellar performers as Rahy, Singspiel, and Devil's Bag. Dosage Profile: 6 - 2 - 12 - 2 - 2 DI 1.40 CD 0.33 A beautifully balanced pedigree, represented in every category. This is a classic profile for a classic contender.

Training: In a word, "great". Would have preferred to see longer works leading up to this but we know he's fit and it appears his trainer is doing the right thing - bringing this colt up to his peak on Derby Day.

Summary: Clearly the horse to beat here...His off the pace running style is the preferred style for the way the race is shaping up and he doesn't need a speed duel to set up his late run ... Fell too far behind in the Fountain of Youth but came back nicely with a convincing score in the Florida Derby ... When he gets going good, he's REAL good, like when he reeled off five straight wins in Maryland last year -- and right now he is GOOD ... Was purchased for $500,000 prior to the Fountain of Youth by his current owners.

6 - SILVER CHARM (7-2)

• Pedigree: Silver Buck - Bonnie's Poker (Poker)
• Record 6 3-3-0 $444,150
• Owner Robert J. and Beverly Lewis
• Breeder Mary Lou Wootton (FL)Trainer Bob Baffert
• Jockey Gary Stevens

Pedigree: Sire Silver Buck won the 1/14 mile Suburban Handicap in 1982. Traits that seems to be shared by offspring of Silver Buck are durability, speed, and stamina - traits that Silver Charm has in abundance. His offspring seem to get better with age, pointing to a bright future for this one. Dosage Profile: 3 - 5 - 15 - 5 - 0 DI = 1.22 CD 0.20 Balanced with representation in all but the Professional category. Perfect for a classic contender.

Training: Has impressed local horsemen with his appearance and brilliant works. Has three solid drills over the track and seems to be coming to the dance in good order.

Summary: Of the three California based entrants, he seems to be getting all the attention ... Lightly raced and improving, always a dangerous combination in the Derby...Only had two races around two turns which leads to possible questions about his ability to get a distance of ground. Per his pedigree he should only get better...He's rated kindly in those route races -- a huge plus ... Beaten less than a length by Free House in two races, including a very gutty performance in the Santa Anita Derby ... Trainer Bob Baffert is a very good trainer, and will put all the experience he gained last year with Cavonnier to good use in Silver Charm's preparation ... Certainly likes to compete and is a solid in the money candidate.

7 - CELTIC WARRIOR (30-1)

• Pedigree: Fast Play - Broadway Star (Broadway Forli)
• Record 11 2-4-0 $132,317
• Owner Hutt & Quackenbush & Schaffrick
• Breeder Robert J. Wilson (KY)
• Trainer Danny Hutt
• Jockey Francisco Torres

Pedigree: Sire Fast Play is by Seattle Slew and was a precocious 2 year old who burned out at 3. Has sired Graded Stakes winner Fast Catch. Dosage Profile: 4 - 3 - 15 - 0 - 0 DI 1.93 CD 0.50 Good Classic influence, but no points on the stamina side. Going only by the numbers you'd expect him to be competitive in middle distances.

Training: Supposedly a slow work horse, he's shown nothing to indicate any kind of dramatic improvement that would make him a contender here.

Summary: He hasn't hit the board in any of his 3 year olds starts...In short he just doesn't belong in the race. Will be the 2nd longest price on the tote...Suppose that's why it's called "the Chance of a Lifetime." Don't waste your time or money.

8 - PULPIT (8-1)

• Pedigree: A.P. Indy - Preach (Mr. Prospector)
• Record 5 4-1-0 $683,200
• Owner Claiborne Farm
• Breeder Claiborne Farm
• Trainer Frank Brothers
• Jockey Shane Sellers

Pedigree: Best in the field. Sire is the hottest sire in the country and his dam is a royally bred multiple stakes winner herself. Dosage Profile: 15 - 3 - 13 - 1 - 0 DI 3.26 CD 1.00 Another classic pedigree, almost perfectly balanced. He'll get the distance.

Training: His 5F work on Monday (1:00.2) was by far the fastest work of the day. Since this is his "home" track he may have a big advantage over the shippers.

Summary: Seeking to become the first horse since 1882 to win the Derby without having started as a 2 year old...There is no doubting his ability and he's traded wins with Captain Bodgit who should be the legitimate post time favorite here...Key issue will be how jockey Shane Sellers uses him, as there appears to be no real speed in the race, he could have the lead if he wants. The smarter move will be to track the pace but try to get a jump on the field...Big time win contender.

9 - HELLO (8-1)

• Pedigree: Lycius - Itqan (Sadler's Wells)
• Record 11 5-2-2 $471,131
• Owner Al & Sandee Kirkwood
• Breeder H. Volz
• Trainer Ronald McAnally
• Jockey Mike Smith

Pedigree: Irish-bred - most of sire's progeny have raced in Europe on the turf and been most successful in middle distances. Dosage Profile: 11 - 2 - 13 - 0 - 0 DI 3.00 CD 0.92 A nice classically balanced profile, but no points on stamina wing could point to problems getting distances past 1 1/8 miles.

Training: Works have been on the sluggish side.

Summary: Small horse, weighs less than 900 pounds...Hall of Fame Trainer Ron McAnally has never won the Derby in 14 tries...high strung, has acted up at the gate before his last two races, could get spooked by the big crowd ... made a nice late run in the Santa Anita Derby but was not a threat to Silver Charm and Free House ... New jockey Mike Smith takes over for the injured Chris McCarron. Smith has never won the Derby either, despite being favored on at least two occasions (Unbridled's Song-1996, Holy Bull-1994) ... Lots of negatives, but as one of the more seasoned colts here it should be noted that he's never run a bad race ... Possible longshot play.

1 - JACK FLASH (16-1)

• Pedigree: Sovereign Dancer - Whow (Spectacular Bid)
• Record 11-2-3-2 $211,100
• Owner Dogwood Stable
• Breeder W.S. Farish and Hermitage Farm
• Trainer Nick Zito
• Jockey Craig Perret

Pedigree: Sovereign Dancer has sired many stakes winners, most of whom have done best on the turf. This is where ultimately this colt may find his true calling. His best offspring on dirt have been Gate Dancer and Louis Quatorze. Dosage Profile: 10 - 9 - 11 - 0 - 0 DI 4.45 CD 4.45 This is a pedigree clearly slanted towards speed, yet this guy has on early speed to speak of.

Training: Have been on the slow side lately, and his only CD work was a slow 6F in 1:16 on a muddy track Monday.

Summary: Still eligible for NW2 condition and has never won a stakes race...Shown nothing to indicate he'll improve enough to be competitive...Trainer Nick Zito is good, but would need god-like powers to pull off a training miracle like getting this colt to win here.

1A - SHAMMY DAVIS (16-1)

Pedigree: Temperence Hill - Sissy Sham (Sham) Record 9 3-1-1 $169,013 Owner Foxhill Farm Breeder Hidden Lane Farms (PA) Trainer Nick Zito jockey Willie Martinez

Late entry rates similar comments as stablemate Jack Flash, though Shammy's at least won a NW2. Save your money.

10 - DEEDS NOT WORDS (25-1)

• Pedigree: Rubiano - Charming Tiara (Alydar)
• Record 4 1-0-2, $63,215
• Owner Michael Tabor
• Breeder S. D. Brilie and Robert and Virginia White (KY)
• Trainer D. Wayne Lukas
• Jockey Corey Nakatani

Running this horse here is simply a major ego trip for both his owner and trainer. Has only a maiden win to his credit and has shown nothing at 3. Will not waste space explaining why he can't win but will add that he may struggle to outfinish Crimson Classic.

11 - CRIMSON CLASSIC (80-1)

• Pedigree: Sky Classic - Marianna's Girl (Dewan)
• Record 10 3-2-0 $79,470
• Owner John W. Clay
• Breeder Albert G. and John W. Clay
• Trainer Forrest Kaelin
• Jockey Robby Albarado

This colt's owners have apparently caught "Derby Fever" and have entered this poor animal I would assume merely to assure themselves of a good seat in the club house. He's got absolutely no chance, and will finish last in the field. The Kentucky Derby Museum used to sell a mug that had the names of all the last place finishers in the Derby on it. I suppose that counts for something.

12 - FREE HOUSE (11-1)

• Pedigree: Smokester - Fountain Lake (Vigors)
• Record 9 4-2-0 $803,201
• Owner Trudy McCaffery and John Toffan
• Breeder John Toffan and Trudy McCaffery
• Trainer Juan Paco Gonzalez
• Jockey David Flores

Pedigree: Sire stands for a measly $500 stud fee in California but now has 2 Stakes winners in his first crop. Damsire Vigors has been a good stamina influence in California bred bloodstock. Despite his humble lineage, this colt has some potent DNA in his body. Dosage Profile: 8 - 4 - 5 - 3 DI 2.63 CD 0.85 A fairly balanced profile indicating that this colt should be able to handle the Derby distance, but not much farther. High number of points in the Brilliant category reflect the speed he's already demonstrated in his races.

Training: A decent 5F move of 1:02 over a muddy track Monday most importantly he reportedly finished strong and galloped out well. Expect a good effort rain or shine.

Summary: Despite his gritty win in the Santa Anita Derby this colt is getting no respect or attention at Churchill. He has many of the qualities of a classic winner -- he's big and strong (kind of like a grey Skip Away) and seems to be getting better with each race. His tactical speed puts him at a distinct advantage over the field which doesn't really have any "need to lead" types.

In many ways his running style is similar to the top handicap horse Siphon whom jockey David Flores also rides on a regular basis. We like what we've seen of this guy and have to say he's a major player here.

Race Scenario

The rest of the field will be strung out a bit with CRYPTO STAR bringing up the rear. Down the backstretch through moderate fractions (:47 or :48 half) the non-contenders such as SHAMMY DAVIS, DEEDS NOT WORDS, and CELTIC WARRIOR make early bids for position into the far turn. Jockeys Alex Solis on CAPTAIN BODGIT and Pat Day on CRYPTO STAR will have to make decisions about making their way through the field on the turn as they start to rev up their mounts for the stretch run.

Solis will go wide, Day will wait and save ground inside, and will likely encounter traffic that will ultimately cost him the race. As the field turns for home down the long Churchill Downs stretch, it will be PULPIT who takes command by a couple of le ngths. SILVER CHARM will be in close pursuit and making some ground up on him. CONCERTO won't be too far behind but his bid will flatten out near the 1/8th pole.

SILVER CHARM and PULPIT will be staging a thrilling duel down the stretch but it will be CAPTAIN BODGIT moving best of all out in the middle of the track and he overtakes that pair 100 yards from the wire. Solis, who was 11th on favored Snow Chief in the 1986 Derby finally gets his redemption.

SELECTIONS: Captain Bodgit - Silver Charm - Pulpit - Crypto Star

Pulpit plummets to 8-1 after Friday's wagering

How recent Derby favorites fared