By Mike Kahn
CBS SportsLine Executive Editor
Dec. 21, 1998

With the possibility of a new collective bargaining agreement before Christmas now nil, the lingering gap that begins with acrimony and ends at matrimony between the NBA and its players association truly is in the hands of NBA commissioner David Stern.

As a gifted attorney, brilliant spin doctor and shrewd marketeer of this ever-evolving game, it really is hard to fathom in the grand scheme of things that Stern did not plan for negotiations to unfold in just this manner.

Related Links Barkley: Jordan won't return Players call exhibition 'gift to fans' Audio: Reggie Miller on ... Missing game of basketball Matchup for exhibition Complete lockout coverage: NBA Lockout Central Lockout timeline Exclusive NBA gear in the Sports Store! Forum: Will there be a season?

There are reasons why, and more people by the day are coming to a similar conclusion.

SOME PEOPLE MIGHT FIND IT PREPOSTEROUS, if not masochistic, to consider Stern actually wanted the lockout to kill the first three months of the 1998-99 season. Even if the two sides were to reach an agreement before Jan. 1 -- as unlikely as that might be -- games would not start before Feb. 1 and a muddled, disgruntled group would play for half a season, then a full complement of playoffs.

Rest assured, this is no accident. As players association executive director Billy Hunter says, "Remember, they knew they were going to re-open this agreement now right after they signed it in 1995. They went after the middle-class player in that agreement, and this time, they want to cap the top players. This all calculated."

Perhaps more than just in the area from which Hunter speaks. There were a handful of reasons why this was the year to pull the plug. The perspective of the league and its players had been deteriorating so fast the past three seasons a major shakeup had to occur, and if it meant Stern canceling an entire season just to alter the financial spiraling of salaries and public perception of the league, then so be it.

Consider there had been a rapid deterioration of attitude by young stars that had infuriated the older players and put off fans. That led to numerous behavioral suspensions last season -- which was capped off by the Latrell Sprewell-P.J. Carlesimo melodrama during which the NBA tried to terminate Sprewell's contract only to lose the case in arbitration. But that laid the framework.

Officiating has become another major problem in light of the retirement of top officials, including Jake O'Donnell, Jack Madden, Darell Garretson, Ed Rush, and Paul Mihalak. Add to that the scam to sell NBA-paid first-class tickets and flying on frequent-flier passes or downgraded flights -- the IRS has

The focus of attention should be centered on David Stern, who carries the 'wait' of the lockout. (AP)

been handing out indictments by the handful to NBA officials. That action prompted the resignations of Jess Kersey, Mike Mathis, Joe Crawford and Blaine Reichelt (and more, plus those to come), effectively eliminating at least the top 10 percent of the officiating crews that virtually ran the playoffs five years ago.

THOSE TWO SCENARIOS ALONE WERE CAUSE for concern. There was only a 50-50 chance of Michael Jordan returning for another season, although many thought he would have returned if the season had started on time. Word around Chicago is Jordan now has transformed his home gym into a "cigar bar" in which his friends can hang out. And if you'll notice, his activity in negotiations has vanished after a couple of brief attempts to help. Jordan's absence, as television ratings proved when a game did not include the Chicago Bulls, diminished dramatically.

Much to the dismay of league officials, the presence of Shaquille O'Neal, Grant Hill or Kevin Garnett does not draw viewers anywhere near the levels of Jordan, Magic Johnson or Larry Bird. With popularity waning -- and questions about the lack of scoring and tedium of the games as the decade was rolling to a close -- something had to change. Once the 1999 NBA All-Star Game, to be played in Philadelphia, was canceled, reality began to set in across the league.

"We all know David is brilliant and has a huge ego," an official from an NBA front office said. "Now that the game is growing globally, he has done everything he can to expand awareness, now he has to save the game from itself. It's pretty obvious, under the circumstances of everything that has happened over the past couple of years, that this was the year he could afford to gamble losing. He's tried to make the players take his deal, and if not, blow up the season and get the deal done the right way.

"There's been talk of all those officials just taking a year or so off, then returning. You lose Jordan, you still are suffering from Sprewell fallout and concern with some of the other young players, and the money has just gotten out of hand. This is his chance to take a stand that can have long-ranging effects on not just the NBA, but the other leagues."

He wasn't talking about other basketball leagues. This was setting the tone for the wacky war of haves and have-nots in Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League. The National Football League continues to hum along rather smoothly through its tight ownership packaging of shared revenues. But the NBA, MLB and NHL need to be straightened out.

SO THIS IS PART III OF DAVID STERN'S legacy as commissioner of the NBA. In the early 1980s, he brought it back for public interest and new arenas became full from coast to coast by marketing stars like Johnson, Bird, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and ultimately Jordan.

He has spent this decade assuring it as a sport growing passion internationally through exhibition games, postseason contests and even regular-season games in Japan. And for the millennium, Stern will show the fortitude he might even bite the biggest bullet of all and cancel an entire season just to correct the financial structure of professional sports over the long haul.

"It's David Stern's decision whether or not to cancel the season," Hunter said. "David is well aware that the players association is ready and willing to compromise so long as there are meaningful negotiations. I'm not interested in raising the level of rhetoric at this point."

Neither is Stern. He sent out a nine-page letter to all the players and many members of the media last Thursday. This is the approach he is going to take. He, deputy commissioner Russ Granik and the negotiating committee are convinced their way is the only way the NBA and its franchises will remain financially solvent in the years to come.

Maybe the players concede in the next 10 days, as loose cannon Karl Malone says they might. But if they don't and the season is canceled, it won't be the worst thing that's happened in sports. Because there is so much apathy from the fans right now, Stern and his wizards can take this year to complete the deal, change the face of players and teams in marketing transition and welcome back the fans to the NBA of the 21st century.

It could be worse