By Mike Kahn
CBS SportsLine Executive Editor
Oct. 4, 1998

The Indians will beat the Padres for their first World Series title in 50 years.

Huh?

Conventional wisdom never has and never will have anything to do with prognostication in sports. Generally speaking, there is no wisdom when it comes to sports, if only because anything and everything can happen.

Looking at all the numbers, rosters, experience and managers, it makes all the sense in the world for the Yankees to beat the Braves for their second World Series title in three years. The Yankees, after all, set the modern-day record with 114 victories this season. They have great pitching, hitting and defense . . . not to mention a lovable and highly successful manager in Joe Torre. Other than that, well, they do have to deal with "The Boss," who has been strangely quiet this year. And we're not talking about Springsteen.

Meanwhile, the Braves still are the best team in the National League, just as they have been for the entire decade. With that incredible starting staff of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Denny Neagle, this is a team screaming to win the Series. But they've only got one and they were beat out by the Florida Marlins all of last season.

SO HOW DO THE PADRES AND INDIANS FIT into this equation? There is one simple solution to this riddle.

Majesty is such a part of this baseball season, nothing is set in stone.

That's why the logical will not happen. It is so tough to figure out how anybody could beat the Yankees. The team is so stocked with such heavy-duty pitching with David Wells, David Cone, Andy Pettitte and Orlando Hernandez starting and Mariano Rivera to put out every fire -- it actually matches up with the great Braves staff. The only difference is the Yankees have more hitting and a cause to rally around, following the stunning news of outfielder Darryl Strawberry's colon cancer and surgery this week.

Those are all the reasons New York would win -- except for one thing. The Indians know how to beat the Yankees. There is something so clutch about these Indians, with David Justice, Manny Ramirez, Sandy Alomar and the best little shortstop everybody ignores -- Omar Vizquel. And while they have a shaky starting pitching staff, their bullpen is fabulous. And as we've been saying all year, every year, bullpens win pennants and World Series. Their bullpen is the reason why the Indians got to within one out of winning the World Series last year.

And it's why they'll finally get another crown 50 years after the last Indians' World Series championship.

BUT IT WON'T BE EASY BECAUSE the Padres have the best closer in the game this year, Trevor Hoffman. He also figures to win the Cy Young Award -- something that traditionally does not go to a reliever. That's how good he's been this year.

Hoffman is one reason the Padres will beat the Braves. But not the only one. They also have the meanest starter in either league -- Kevin Brown, who may as well throw rocks as well as baseballs at batters -- the ball he throws is so heavy and hard. Brown is as enigmatic as Randy Johnson -- just not as big a unit.

They also have Jim Leyritz, a quirky catcher who seems to hit home runs when everybody least expects it. He's been as productive a power hitter in the postseason as anybody over the past 20 years. There also is Ken Caminiti and the best hitter of this era, Tony Gwynn.

Still not convinced?

Then it doesn't matter. Nobody can be faulted for expecting the Yankees to win. Others may say the Braves are just due and the addition of Andres Galarraga was the only additional bat they needed. That just won't fly in this corner. There has been something lacking in the Braves all along that has allowed other teams to creep into their helmets and psych them right out of a series. It's happened too often to be a fluke. Losing in the postseason has become a habit for the Braves, and the Padres are just good enough to beat them in six games.

As for the Indians, they are more overdue than the Braves. They have clutch hitters and a bullpen that can go six innings for seven games, plus experience gnawing away at them. They have just enough of what it takes to steal the thunder from the Yankees in seven games.

Once in the series, the Indians will take advantage of their experience and take out the Padres in six.

If you don't believe it, too bad, not everybody can be right.