By Sandra Loosemore
CBS SportsLine Figure Skating Writer
Feb. 4, 1999
The post-Olympic season is traditionally a time that sees a great deal of turnover in figure skating, as older skaters retire from eligible competition and younger skaters move up to the top.
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This year's United States Figure Skating Championships, which take place in Salt Lake City during the week of Feb. 7, will be no exception.
Of the four disciplines, only the ladies' event features a defending champion -- Michelle Kwan. In the men's division, last year's champion Todd Eldredge and bronze medalist Scott Davis have elected not to compete, and all three of the top pairs teams from last season have split up or retired from competition, along with the top two dance teams.
IN THE LADIES EVENT, KWAN is obviously considered the favorite. But nothing in skating is certain, and in this instance part of the uncertainty is that this will be Kwan's first real competition of the season. Up until this point she has appeared only in made-for-TV pro-am events that have not used the regular Olympic-style rules and judging standards. No one really knows where her skating is at compared to last year -- whether she has upgraded the technical content in her programs or how the judges will rate her new free skating program.
Kwan could be strongly challenged by Nicole Bobek, who has stated unequivocally that her goal this year is to regain the national title she won in 1995. To that end, she has returned to her 1995 coach, Richard Callaghan, and has shown a steady improvement throughout the fall competition season.
While everything Kwan does is neat and clean, if not spectacularly strong or fast, Bobek is powerful and aggressive -- but wildly unpredictable. She has long struggled with faulty technique in the mechanics of her jumps as well as lack of the training discipline necessary to build consistency. If Bobek can put it all together when it counts, she could indeed win her title back -- but that's an awfully big "if," going by her past performances.
One possible spoiler is Angela Nikodinov, a superb technician with textbook-perfect jumps and spins. But, up to this point in her career, Nikodinov has never shown a great deal of competitive fire in her skating.
At Skate America last fall, Nikodinov had an excellent chance to win after weak performances by the other competitors, but instead she appeared to simply give up halfway through her free skate, watering down her technical content and merely going through the motions of her choreography.
If Nikodinov should fizzle again at nationals, there are a number of other skaters who could challenge for the third spot on the World Championships team. This group includes Amber Corwin, Brittney McConn, Andrea Gardiner, Stacey Pensgen and Sarah Hughes.
AMONG THE MEN, ONLY MICHAEL WEISS has emerged as a clear medal favorite after a good season on the fall Grand Prix circuit. For the rest of the U.S. men's team, international results have been dismal this season -- including last-place finishes from Dan Hollander at Skate Canada, Shepherd Clark at Sparkassen Cup in Germany, and Tim Goebel at Cup of Russia, while Derrick Delmore finished 10th out of 12 at NHK Trophy in Japan.
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Michael Weiss looks to take advantage of Eldredge's absence and win his first national title.
(AP)
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The only American man besides Weiss who has had even modest success on the international circuit this season is Trifun Zivanovic. He won one event and placed second at another, but these were both minor international events with much weaker fields than the more competitive Grand Prix events.
But don't assume Weiss has a lock on the gold. In spite of the hype surrounding his attempts at quadruple jumps, he has yet to actually land one in competition. Meanwhile, his technique on the triple axel -- a far more critical jump in terms of the judging -- is often downright frightening.
A poor performance from Weiss combined with a strong one from one of his competitors could result in the kind of upset that occurred in 1996, when Todd Eldredge lost the championship to Rudy Galindo.
In addition to Hollander, Clark, Goebel, Delmore and Zivanovic, Weiss's potential challengers include Damon Allen, who finished fifth at the 1997 event but missed last season with a knee injury, and Michael Chack, the 1993 bronze medalist who was not selected for the U.S. international team this fall after a poor finish at last year's nationals.
GOEBEL AND DELMORE ARE YOUNG up-and-comers who both had considerable success on the junior international circuit last season but who have yet to establish themselves as senior competitors, and who are still quite raw in terms of their presentation skills.
Goebel, in particular, is primarily known as a precocious jumper -- it is he, not Weiss, who is credited with being the first U.S. skater to land a quadruple jump. At the same time, Goebel has very little to offer in between the jumps. Hollander, Clark, Allen, and Chack are all veteran competitors with fully developed presentation skills, but they have struggled with consistency on their jumps. Zivanovic, 23, is somewhere in the middle of the spectrum. With three spots on the Worlds team this year, the competition is wide open.
After the retirements and break-ups since last season, the pairs event appears a toss-up between any of four teams.
Kyoko Ina, a two-time champion with former partner Jason Dungjen, is now skating with John Zimmerman under the tutelage of renowned Russian pairs coach Tamara Moskvina. Their skating has a lot of flair and excitement, but throughout the fall season they have still been trying to work out problems with unison and timing on critical pair elements -- such as the throw jump, which is now a required element in the short program.
THEIR CHALLENGERS INCLUDE Laura Handy and Paul Binnebose, who have had good success on the junior international circuit this year, including a silver medal at the World Junior Championships, and Danielle and Steve Hartsell, World Junior champions from two years ago. Both of these teams are technically capable, if somewhat lacking in pizzazz and polish.
The young team of Tiffany and Johnnie Stiegler, fourth at World Juniors, might also be in the hunt for a medal here, but they are not yet age-eligible for the World Championships. Technically, they are a notch below the other teams, but they are known for their superb presentation skills.
Another top pair from last season, Natalie Vlandis and Jered Guzman, have split and are each skating with new partners: Vlandis with Jim Peterson, and Guzman with Amanda Magarian. At the Pacific Coast qualifying event for Nationals, Vlandis and Peterson came out on top with a nicely delivered pair of programs that were not of the greatest difficulty, while Magarian and Guzman took a more aggressive approach on the technical elements but made several mistakes. These two teams seem likely to be "the best of the rest" in Salt Lake City.
THE DANCE EVENT FIELD AT NATIONALS is very small this year, with only eight teams competing in the senior division. Five-time U.S. champions Elizabeth Punsalan and Jerod Swallow are not competing, while last year's runners-up, Jessica Joseph and Charles Butler, have split up, as have Kate Robinson and Peter Breen.
At the top of the heap in this rather depleted field, expect to see Naomi Lang and Peter Tchernyshev duking it out with Eve Chalom and Matthew Gates for the title, while Debbie Koegel and Oleg Fediukov will likely finish third.
It's also worth keeping an eye on the junior division in dance, where current World Junior champions Jamie Silverstein and Justin Pekarek will be competing. This team has improved tremendously in the past year and is likely to be a major contender at the senior level in years to come.
Another division to watch this year is the junior ladies competition. Winning the U.S. junior ladies title is not necessarily a strong predictor of future success -- Michelle Kwan, for instance, finished only ninth in her one junior-level competition at nationals -- but it's likely that the skater who will emerge as Kwan's successor will be one of the young women competing as a junior this year.
Pay close attention to Jennifer Kirk, for instance, who already has all of her triple jumps up to the lutz. Sara Wheat, Elizabeth Kwon, Ann Patrice McDonough, and Sasha Cohen are also top contenders for this year's title.
Sandra Loosemore is CBS SportsLine's figure skating writer.