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  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    #1
    +1117
    (70%)
    51-22 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
    TOR
    -149
    Money Line
    Picked: May 13 @ 4:37pm

    Analysis

    The Rays are scalding hot and I love to see Little Brother win big, but it's a natural trappish spot at the end of a trip. Today's lineup is rather meh. So is starting pitcher Griffin Jax (1-2, 5.00 ERA). Meanwhile, the Jays usually are excellent at home but on the verge of being swept by a division rival before going out on a trip. After also being swept in St. Pete last week by these same Rays. So behind ace Dylan Cease (3-1, 2.58), yeah, I think this is a bit more than a typical mid-May game for Toronto.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #2
    +771
    (90%)
    9-1 in Last 10 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    D. Cease
    Over 4.5
    -112
    Hits Allowed
    Picked: May 13 @ 5:27pm

    Analysis

    Caesar’s. Dylan’s Cease has allowed at least five hits in five of eight starts, including each of his last four outings. The Rays pose an interesting matchup for the righty as they are the premier contact-oriented team in baseball. The Rays have both the highest in and out of zone contact rate, the latter pertinent against a pitcher like Cease, who has an elite chase rate. The Rays own a .261 average against power pitchers, earning a hit in 22% of plate appearances. I don’t see this as a matchup where Cease will be able to stack K’s, and the Rays bats - especially their top four hitters - should squeeze out at least five hits in the first 23 plate appearances.
  • expert headshot
    Adam Thompson
    +280.5
    (58%)
    19-14 in Last 33 MLB ML Picks
    ATL
    +118
    Money Line
    Picked: May 13 @ 1:58pm

    Analysis

    I’m a fan of Shota Imanaga. However, the Cubs LHP has been nearly two runs worse on the road compared to at Wrigley, and here he faces a lineup with a .794 OPS vs. left-handers this month. So we’ll ride with JR Ritchie, who’s given up 2-3 runs each start, and a stellar bullpen behind him, at plus odds.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #2
    +771
    (90%)
    9-1 in Last 10 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    R. Detmers
    Under 17.5
    -128
    Outs Recorded
    WIN
    Picked: May 13 @ 11:27am

    Analysis

    Caesar’s. I know that Reid Detmers is a popular breakout candidate as his underlying metrics suggest that he’s pitched better than his 4.33 ERA would indicate (2.91 xERA). But the fact is, he throws a lot of pitches: 4.08 per plate appearance is 16th highest out of 132 qualifiers. And he’ll face a Guardians lineup that sees the most pitches per plate appearance in baseball, with eight players in today’s lineup above average in the metric. The Guards offense are no slouches against lefties either: seven hitters in the lineup have at least a .340 OBP and 131 wRC+ against lefties this season. Detmers is under this line in 3/4 on the road - today should make it 4/5. I’d bet this to under 16.5.
  • expert headshot
    Angelo Magliocca
    +74
    (60%)
    3-2 in Last 5 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    B. Rice
    Over 1.5
    +101
    Bases
    LOSS
    Picked: May 13 @ 11:56am

    Analysis

    I like the Hits, Runs and RBI prop bet more than the Total Bases most times but Ben Rice has been elite this season, leading MLB in SLG% and OPS. Kyle Bradish has actually been worse to righties thus far, but that won't stop me from backing Rice to have either an extra base hit or a couple of knocks. A piece of this angle is also betting Ben Rice to walk at +120 for 0.5u so we're covered if he "loses" an at bat. In their last meeting, Rice saw 17 pitches from Bradish and laid off some good curveballs in the dirt, working a couple three ball counts while pelting the sinker for a single at 106mph EV in his 3rd try.

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