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San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10: Game preview, best bets and odds
Can the injury-riddled Buccaneers cover the two-score spread?
| WHO | San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| WHEN | Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 1 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | Raymond James Stadium | Tampa, Florida |
| HOW | FOX |
The 49ers (4-4) come off their bye week with a big rest advantage spot on the road against the Buccaneers (4-5), who must prepare for Week 10 on short rest having played last on Monday night.
Nevertheless, line movement on the point spread supported Tampa Bay early in the week. San Francisco is a 6-point favorite at BetMGM with the Bucs +200 to win the game on the money line. The odds project a high-scoring game with the total sitting aroun 51 on most betting apps.
The 49ers, despite remaining among the favorites to reach the Super Bowl out of the NFC, find themselves in a dogfight to win the NFC West:
- Cardinals 5-4
- Rams 4-4
- 49ers 4-4
- Seahawks 4-5
San Francisco traded wins and losses for six consecutive weeks going into the bye week, with two blown 10-point, fourth-quarter leads in that stretch to the Rams and Cardinals.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay was perhaps an overtime coin toss away from upsetting the Chiefs in Kansas City on Monday. Nevertheless, the Bucs have lost three in a row and four of their last five following back-to-back wins to open the season. The Bucs are two back in the loss column in the NFC South behind the Falcons, with Atlanta also holding the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Both teams were quiet during this week’s NFL trade deadline. The 49ers made a minor move for Texans DT Khalil Davis, while the Bucs didn’t make any deals.
Key injuries to monitor
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are coming off their bye week, and bettors will need to monitor the status of many starters on the injury report and when inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff.
On offense, All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey (calf/Achilles) could be activated from injured reserve, while McCaffrey’s backup Jordan Mason re-aggravated his shoulder injury before the bye against the Cowboys. San Francisco also opened the 21-day practice window for offensive guard Joe Feliciano. At wide receiver, Deebo Samuel was day-to-day with rib/oblique strains going into the bye week and Jauan Jennings could also be back for a group that already lost Brandon Aiyuk for the season.
On special teams, kicker Jake Moody is trending towards returning this week after the team released fellow kicker Anders Carlson.
On defense, the 49ers will again be without star safety Talanoa Hufanga (wrist) after he went back on injured reserve and could be lost for the season. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw (Achilles) is not expected to be back from the PUP list for a few more weeks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs may go into their third game without their top-two wide receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Godwin is on IR with a dislocated ankle, but Evans should be monitored for betting purposes. Evans (hamstring) was at practice Wednesday but working on the side with a trainer. It, at least, gives him a chance to play this week.
Talented rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan (hamstring) did not play Monday night against the Chiefs. He now has a short week to try to get back on the field.
On defense, Tampa Bay will continue to be without top cornerback Jamel Dean (hamstring), who is on IR.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers spread | -5.5 (-120) | -6 (-112) | -6 (-110) |
| Bucs spread | +5.5 (-102) | +6 (-108) | +6 (-110) |
| 49ers money line | -270 | -278 | -250 |
| Bucs money line | +220 | +225 | +222 |
| Over | Over 50.5 (-115) | Over 50.5 (-115) | Over 51 (-110) |
| Under | Under 50.5 (-105) | Over 50.5 (-105) | Under 51 (-110) |
Why bet on the 49ers
If Christian McCaffrey returns from injury, it’s entirely possible it sparks another second-half run by the 49ers. The loss of CMC has perhaps most been felt in the red zone. His versatility in the backfield and ability to line up as a pass catcher led San Francisco to a 68% touchdown rate in the red zone last year, No. 1 in the NFL. That percentage is down to 48.6% this season, bottom five in the league.
If Kyle Shanahan can raise the efficiency of this offense in scoring range, the rest could fall into place as this unit already ranks top 10 across the board in overall, dropback, and rushing EPA per play, while also ranking top 10 in overall and dropback success rate.
Brock Purdy continues to mature as a promising young quarterback, ranking top five among all QBs with a 51.8% success rate.
The matchup is pristine as well against a Bucs defense that continues to struggle this season:
- 0.070 EPA per play allowed (27th)
- 46.8% success rate allowed (29th)
The typically stout Bucs rush defense has also taken a step back this season, remaining below league average in those advanced metrics.
Why bet on the Buccaneers
Quarterback Baker Mayfield has played outstanding football, even in recent weeks without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to throw the ball to. On the season, his 52.2% success rate is No. 4 among all NFL QBs. The scheme this season with added pre-snap motion and play action is also helping Mayfield post the No. 8 EPA per play among QBs, despite ranking in the bottom tier of air yards.
Against the Falcons and Chiefs in the past two weeks, one below average and one above average defense, the Bucs offense still posted above average metrics without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.
That’s encouraging, even on a short week, against a 49ers defense that has not impressed for 60 minutes throughout this season. San Francisco is outside the top 20 in stopping the run by EPA per play and success rate only about a league average defense overall.
While the 49ers generate a 23.5% pressure rate while blitzing just 17.3% of the time, the Bucs offensive line sits No. 3 in composite pass protection ratings.
Best bet for 49ers vs. Buccaneers: 49ers -6 (-109, BetRivers)
It’s impossible to overstate the large rest advantage here, with the 49ers coming off a bye, with extra time to get healthy and prepare, and the Bucs on a short week having played on Monday Night Football.
Plus, there is reason for optimism with the 49ers defense that has admittedly lost focus in several fourth quarters this season. In the first three quarters, San Francisco is the No. 3 defense in the NFL by EPA per play allowed, behind only the Chargers and Vikings. It is top 10 defending the pass in the first three quarters by dropback success rate.
Monitor the injuries, though. This would be a completely different handicap if one or several of Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason, Deebo Samuel, and Jauan Jennings do not return for this game.
Prediction: 49ers 30, Buccaneers 23