Best anytime touchdown scorer prop bets for Buccaneers vs. Chiefs on MNF in Week 9

Can the National Tight End Day festivities from Week 8 continue into this Monday night matchup?

The Kansas City Chiefs will look to extend their perfect start to the 2024 season when they host the injury-ravaged Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football in Week 9. The Chiefs are heavy favorites in this game of at least -9 against the spread, while the over/under is set at 45.5 total points.

The Chiefs’ 7-0 record is their best mark to start a season in the Patrick Mahomes era and the best since they started 9-0 in Andy Reid’s first season in 2013. They have done that despite losing several of their top playmakers on offense to injury, including running back Isiah Pacheco and wide receivers Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown. 

Kareem Hunt returned to the franchise that drafted him and has helped fill Pacheco’s void, while the Chiefs hope the recent trade for veteran receiver DeAndre Hopkins will help compensate for Rice’s lost production. This will be Hopkins’ second game with Kansas City.

The Buccaneers are dealing with several key injuries of their own, as they recently lost star wide receiver Chris Godwin (ankle) for the season and are also currently without their other star receiver, Mike Evans (hamstring). Tight end Cade Otton helped to fill their voids last week with nine catches for 81 yards and two touchdowns.

Could any of those players be good bets to score a touchdown this week? This article looks at the best anytime touchdown prop bets for this primetime matchup. Each pick is based on the betting odds available at any of the best online sportsbooks at the time of publication, but those odds are always subject to change. 

Cade Otton (+260, bet365)

National Tight Ends Day may have been last Sunday, but Otton still appears poised to have another big game this week. Otton is the clear focal point of the Buccaneers’ passing offense with both Godwin and Evans sidelined. He had three more targets (10) than any other Bucs pass-catcher last week and it led to a career day. 

His nine catches last week were a career high, and his 81 yards trailed only the 100 yards he had the previous week as the best mark of his career. It was also just his second career game with two touchdowns. He has now scored three touchdowns in his last three games.

Now, Otton faces a tough defense overall in the Chiefs but one that has been vulnerable against tight ends this season. The Chiefs have allowed the most targets (8.7), receptions (7.0), and receiving yards (80.9) per game against tight ends. So far that has only led to two touchdowns by tight ends against them, but if that level of overall production continues, then more touchdowns are likely to follow.

The expected game script also strongly favors a big game by Otton. As nearly 10-point underdogs, the Bucs are likely to be playing from behind, which means a more pass-heavy offense. Tampa Bay already throws it at the ninth-highest rate in the league (57.8% of plays), and they could be even more pass-heavy this week. 

Not only are they big underdogs, but the Chiefs are also excellent against the run. They are second in DVOA, third in EPA, and seventh in success rate against the run, and they are allowing the second-fewest yards per game (82.3) and per carry (3.5).

The Chiefs are also excellent at defending wide receivers and pass-catching running backs, which could funnel more opportunities toward Otton. Kansas City allows the fewest receiving yards per game (108.6) and per catch (11.0) to opposing wide receivers and the Chiefs are 11th and 15th, respectively, in those same categories against running backs. They have allowed only two touchdowns all season to running backs, and zero through the air, which are both tops in the league.

The Chiefs are excellent against the run and against pass-catching running backs and wide receivers, but the worst in the league against tight ends. Otton is a tight end who is the Bucs’ No. 1 target in a pass-heavy offense and an expected pass-heavy game script. He is available with +260 odds at bet365, but is priced as low as +210 at DraftKings. At either number, Otton is the best anytime TD bet in this game.

Travis Kelce (+120, FanDuel) 

Let’s stay with the tight end theme for the next pick. After a slow start to the season, Travis Kelce has started playing more like hiimself over the last few weeks. He has at least seven catches and 70 receiving yards in three of his last four games and just posted his best game of the season last week – 10 catches for 90 yards and his first touchdown of the year. 

With so many other injuries on offense, the Chiefs need Kelce to step up as the No. 1 target. He has quelled any concerns that he is starting to slow down in his age-35 season, and it seems fair to expect him to continue putting up big numbers going forward.

Similar to the Chiefs, the Buccaneers have struggled against tight ends this season. They have yielded the third-most receiving yards per game (64.8) and the second-most yards per reception (12.95). They have also allowed seven touchdowns to the position, tied for third most in the league.

Kelce has caught at least five touchdowns in all but one season since his rookie year, and at least nine touchdowns in four of his last six seasons. With only one touchdown so far this year, he is due for some positive regression. He is still the Chiefs’ top option in the red zone and leads the team with eight red zone targets this year, including six in his last four games.

Kelce should remain the focal point of the Chiefs’ passing offense even once they have integrated Hopkins into a full-time role. While Hopkins is still getting familiar with the Chiefs’ system, Kelce should be even more heavily targeted, especially near the goal line. That makes him another good bet in this game to score a touchdown, and that bet is still available (as of this writing) with plus odds at FanDuel but is less than even money (-105) at Caesars.

Xavier Worthy (+220, FanDuel)

Kareem Hunt is the most likely player on the Chiefs to score a touchdown, but with -138 odds at bet365, the value is not good on that bet. The Bucs are stronger against the run (10th in DVOA) than they are against the pass (19th). Hunt should get plenty of action in this game, and he has scored touchdowns in three straight games, but there are still better bets to be found elsewhere.

When Mahomes is not looking for Kelce, his next read is usually rookie speedster Xavier Worthy, at least until Hopkins gets fully up to speed. Worthy has not taken as much advantage of the opportunities created by injury as some fans might have liked, but he has still be an effective weapon for the Chiefs. He leads the team with five touchdowns this season and has the second-most red zone targets (four) since Rice went down, as well as two other rushing attempts near the goal line.

Perhaps this is the week when Worthy has a breakout game. Tampa Bay has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers this season, which is primarily where Worthy lines up. They are also missing their top cornerback Jamel Dean, who is on IR. Worthy has a good chance to bust an explosive play in this game, and with his speed it’s always possible he could turn that into a house call.

Despite leading the team in touchdowns and being second in targets and receiving yards, Worthy’s anytime TD scorer odds are set longer than newcomer DeAndre Hopkins (+185, FanDuel). Worthy is being undervalued, which means that bettors are getting a slight edge with this pick.