Bijan Robinson TD total + four other Atlanta Falcons futures bets

Can the Falcons win the NFC South? What will Kirk Cousins’ first season in Atlanta look like? Here are five intriguing bets for the Falcons’ 2024 season.

The summer of 2024 was busy for the Atlanta Falcons, leading to substantial expectations for the franchise. Raheem Morris arrives in Atlanta as the head coach, bringing offensive coordinator Zac Robinson with him from the Los Angeles Rams to form a revamped staff after the Falcons parted ways with Arthur Smith. 

The Falcons also upgraded at quarterback, spending big on Kirk Cousins and Darnell Mooney in free agency, and Atlanta returns a talented and high-pedigree skill position trio of Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts to provide offensive firepower. On defense, the Falcons enter with mixed projections, but Atlanta did spring into action in August to add both Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons to position groups that needed help with a new-look group under the leadership of Morris. 

NFL betting is seldom straightforward, but with those upgrades, the Falcons enter the 2024 NFL campaign with an over/under win total projection of 9.5 victories, and with Super Bowl odds in between 25-1 and 30-1 at most sportsbooks. To set the tone for the upcoming season, here are five intriguing bets involving Atlanta.

Bijan Robinson Over 6.5 rushing touchdowns (-128, FanDuel)

Robinson is a popular breakout pick for obvious reasons. The No. 8 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft is one of the more talented running backs in the NFL, and he showed plenty of flashes in his rookie season while appearing in all 17 games. With that said, Atlanta’s usage of Robinson was controversial under former head coach and play-caller Arthur Smith, as the Falcons vexed observers with high-end usage of Tyler Allgeier and a seeming unwillingness to lean on Robinson. He yielded only four rushing touchdowns all season as a result, and through only that lens, a jump to a number like this requires some projection. Still, Robinson should be in line for a more frequent diet of usage and, in an offense that projects overall improvement given an upgrade at quarterback, Robinson can get to at least seven rushing scores and surpass this total at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Kirk Cousins Over 3,800.5 passing yards (-112, FanDuel)

Cousins is coming off an Achilles injury that sidelined him after only eight games in 2023 and, at the age of 36, it is not a lock that he is back to 100 percent of his previous form. However, that is perhaps creating a discount on Cousins from a production standpoint. Cousins comfortably exceeded this total in seven of eight seasons before 2023, and even with a potential downgrade in pass volume on a team with Bijan Robinson, he projects to zoom beyond 4,000 passing yards if he can stay on the field for 15-plus games. It also helps that Cousins will be working with a potential breakout wide receiver in Drake London and a dynamic tight end in Kyle Pitts.

Drake London Over 81.5 receptions (-110, DraftKings)

The third-year wide receiver jump is well-known at this stage, and London is in line for it. There are angles available on his receiving yards and touchdowns as well, but his receptions total is perhaps the most projectable avenue to exploit his uptick in usage. London’s career high of 72 receptions would fall well short of this number but, for the first time in his NFL career, the former No. 8 overall pick has an above-average quarterback to feed him the ball. London managed to be productive and consistent with woeful quarterback play in previous seasons, and Cousins has a reputation for feeding his top targets. Atlanta’s pass volume should jump and, if London can stay on the field, he could challenge for 90 or even 100 receptions over a full season of work.

Jessie Bates Over 2.5 interceptions (+100, DraftKings)

In an otherwise maddening season for the Falcons, Bates was an unquestioned bright spot. In his first season after arriving in Atlanta, Bates earned a Pro Bowl berth, second-team All-Pro honors, and a pair of NFC Defensive Player of the Week awards. He was a havoc-creating force for the Falcons, ending the season with six interceptions, three forced fumbles, and more than 130 combined tackles. While Bates could be in line for some regression from the best season of his career, he has a knack for securing interceptions. In fact, Bates has generated three or more interceptions in five of his six NFL seasons. With even money on this side at DraftKings, there is value to be had in riding that trend with an established veteran.

Atlanta Falcons to win NFC South (-135, Caesars)

The Falcons finished just 7-10 last season, landing two games behind both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints in the NFC South race. In 2024, Atlanta is the betting favorite at Caesars Sportsbook after a busy offseason. That might seem aggressive from a market standpoint but, if anything, the market is short on the Falcons. Atlanta was able to largely stay afloat despite hideous play from the most important position on the field in 2024, and Kirk Cousins is a substantial upgrade. Even if Cousins goes down, Atlanta has a first-round quarterback in Michael Penix who could step in and keep things on schedule. The Falcons also added a pair of potential impact defenders in Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons late in the summer, and for good measure, both the Buccaneers and Saints seem due for regression in 2024. Some projections also project one of the NFL’s easiest schedules for the Falcons and, even if the rest of the NFC South will face similar slates, that can only help in bolstering the team’s win total. Atlanta’s defense certainly has questions, but the combination of Cousins and a potentially fantastic skill position group should send the Falcons to the playoffs as the division winner.