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Best bets, analysis and preview for Jets vs. Steelers in Week 7
See how oddsmakers are handicapping this Sunday Night contest
| WHO | New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers |
| WHEN | Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | Acrisure Stadium | Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania |
| HOW | NBC |
There’s never a dull moment with the New York Jets. The Tuesday after losing to the Minnesota Vikings in London, former head coach Robert Saleh was fired. Less than 24 hours following a Monday night home loss to Buffalo came the news that New York acquired receiver Davante Adams, reuniting him with former teammate Aaron Rodgers.
The Jets were in win-now mode from the outset of the season. At 2-4, the urgency has only heightened. New York dropped a winnable game against the Bills in which it committed 110 yards worth of penalties, the offense struggled in the red zone, the defense allowed 149 rushing yards, and Greg Zuerlein missed a pair of field-goal tries.
While New York is desperate for a win, the Steelers got well in Las Vegas, trouncing the Raiders, 32-13, behind their two calling cards. Pittsburgh’s defense was dominant after surrendering an opening-drive TD. They forced three turnovers, including a T.J. Watt forced fumble at the 1-yard line in the fourth quarter. On offense, the Steelers had their most impressive rushing output of the season. Najee Harris did the most damage with 106 yards on 14 carries and the team totaled a season-high 183 yards.
Despite the Steelers having the better record and home-field advantage, the Jets are a slight road favorite for Sunday night. Here are some of the most recent odds that can be found at some of the top online sportsbooks.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets spread | -1.5 (-105) | -1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-110) |
| Steelers spread | +1.5 (-115) | +1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) |
| Jets moneyline | -124 | -122 | -125 |
| Steelers moneyline | +106 | +102 | +105 |
| Over | Over 38.5 (-105) | Over 38 (-110) | Over 38 (-110) |
| Under | Under 38.5 (-115) | Under 38 (-110) | Under 38 (-110) |
Why bet on the Jets
It remains to be seen how Adams adapts to his new team. And for the sake of this upcoming game in Pittsburgh, how quickly he becomes acclimated to the offense. Having connected on 615 completions and 68 touchdowns over eight seasons, he and Rodgers might need just a little time to regain their old rhythm.
Each of the Jets’ last three losses was by six points or fewer. As frustrating as that may be, there’s the mindset that those could have easily been victories if not for self-inflicted mistakes such as penalties, special teams and finishing drives.
Rodgers threw for a season-best 296 yards against Buffalo, including a Hail Mary touchdown to conclude the first half. That, plus Hall’s success on the ground (111 yards) and in the short passing game, showed a reinvigorated offense with Todd Downing doing the play-calling instead of Nathaniel Hackett.
The Steelers might have their own adjustments to make with the possibility of Russell Wilson supplanting Justin Fields as their starting quarterback. Regardless, Pittsburgh’s offense is fairly one-dimensional which should, at worst, allow the Jets to stay in yet another close game. Neither Wilson nor Fields should be able to beat them on their own.
Why bet on the Steelers
Movable object meets irresistible force. Pittsburgh’s successful ground game against Las Vegas further underscored this group as a top-10 rushing attack. Not only did it pile up the yardage, but the return of Jaylen Warren can complement Najee Harris and give the Steelers the duo they were hoping for at the start of the season.
Pittsburgh’s defense got another big performance from Watt, who has now caused three fumbles to go along with eight tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. He didn’t bring a quarterback down in Week 6, but applied plenty of heat on the quarterback to slant the outcome in his team’s favor.
Rodgers is one of the worst in the league under pressure, with a 74.5 QB rating. He’s also been prone to turnovers lately, throwing four interceptions over the past two games. Pittsburgh has forced 11 takeaways for the season, the fifth-most in the NFL.
Whatever success the Jets found in running the ball could very well be mitigated by what the Steelers have done so far in stopping it. Pittsburgh is allowing the league’s second-fewest yards per carry at 3.6.
Best bet for Jets vs. Steelers: Under 38.5 total points (-110, FanDuel)
Call it the Davante effect. The Steelers opened as two-point favorites on some books as recently as Tuesday morning before flipping to the Jets. The betting markets went as high as -2 before the buyback on Pittsburgh settled things to New York at -1.5 at most sportsbooks, including BetMGM.
Having a feel for how this game will play out is particularly difficult considering the variables and changing personnel. One aspect that might be easier to determine is the strength of the defense on either side.
New York’s inability to prevent the Bills, who were missing their top running back James Cook, from gaining significant rushing yardage is a weakness the Steelers can also exploit, and they run the ball with more frequency than every other NFL team except the Ravens. A methodical offense that causes long drives will minimize scoring.
There’s no reason to believe that Pittsburgh’s defense, which has been consistently great all season long and highly ranked in several advanced defensive metrics, is going to change, even if the Jets are undergoing upgrades to their offense.
Although the Jets put up nearly 400 yards against Buffalo, Rodgers and the offense consistently came up short in third-down situations, red-zone possessions, and two-minute drills. It’ll be hard to alleviate those issues against the Steelers, who make a habit of preventing opponents from getting into the end zone, boasting the third-lowest touchdown percentage inside the red zone. It’s what’s helped the Steelers stay under the total in four of their six games in 2024 and, with an over/under of 38.5 points this week, that could become five times in seven games on Sunday night.