The New York Mets are in a bad spot right now. New York has lost 23 of 37 since the start of August, and after contending for the NL East for most of the year, the Mets now just lead the Cincinnati Reds by two games for the final National League wild card spot. To make matters worse, the Mets need a win on Thursday otherwise they'll be swept in four games by the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies. First pitch at Citizens Bank Park is set for 7:15 p.m. ET, and the game will be shown nationally on FOX.
Those interested in MLB betting at the top sportsbooks can get the latest Phillies vs. Mets odds, predictions and player props from the SportsLine Inside the Lines team, which simulates every game 10,000 times.
David Peterson (9-5, 3.72 ERA) gets the start for the Mets while Jesus Luzardo (14-6, 4.01) goes for Philadelphia. Peterson was an All-Star this year for the first time and has been a stabilizing force for the Mets this year. He won his last start against the Reds, which is also the last time New York won. On the other side, Luzardo hasn't lost a decision over his last four starts.
FanDuel Sportsbook has Peterson set at over/under 5.5 strikeouts (Over -108, Under -125), while Luzardo is set at 6.5 strikeouts (Over -106, Under -125). While the Inside the Lines team's projection model doesn't have a strong lean on these strikeout props, it does rate Peterson Over 15.5 outs record a 4/5 play, as it projects Peterson to record 18 outs.
Mets first baseman Pete Alonso has the shortest odds to homer at FanDuel at +280, followed by Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber (+330), who recently hit his 50th home run of the season. Following them are Juan Soto (+390), Francisco Lindor (+420), Mark Vientos (+470), Bryce Harper (+500), Harrison Bader (+540) and Nick Castellanos (+600).
Here are the Inside the Lines team's picks for Phillies vs. Mets on Thursday:
NEW YORK METS at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES | 9/11 | 7:15 PM ET
Money line
Pick: Phillies -130
Philadelphia wins in 58% of simulations, bringing value at these odds
Run line
Pick: Mets +1.5 (-187)
New York covers in 63% of simulations
Over/Under
Pick: Over 8 (-115)
The Over hits in 60.8% of simulations
Projected score: Phillies 5.1, Mets 5
