Best touchdown scorer prop bets of Week 1

Four running backs lead our list of the top bets to consider for Week 1 touchdown scorer bets

Following a long summer of anticipation, the 2024 NFL season is finally here. All 32 teams in the league will see action from Thursday through Monday.

While there are a variety of ways to attack the slate from a handicapping perspective, one popular avenue is through anytime touchdown scorer prop bets. In this space, we will dive into five players who bring value in the season opener, all with an eye toward turning a profit in this emerging market.

Raiders RB Zamir White (+165, DraftKings)

Josh Jacobs is not walking through the door in Las Vegas, paving the way for Zamir White as the lead back. The Raiders did not invest heavily in another option, adding a marginal player in Alexander Mattison as the backup, and Las Vegas does not project to have a dynamic passing game. As such, White could be in line for big volume, both overall and near the goal line. He showed tremendous overall upside in the final four games of 2023, accounting for well over 400 rushing yards, and while White does not have a track record for scoring touchdowns, this is an advantageous matchup.

Even when accounting for the arrival of Jim Harbaugh and a new approach for the Chargers, Los Angeles allowed a whopping 18 rushing touchdowns last season, ranking firmly in the bottom third of the NFL. The over/under total at most online sportsbooks for this matchup is modest, which may have pushed the price at DraftKings down on White, but he projects as the most likely player on either team to find the end zone.

Chargers WR Joshua Palmer (+280, DraftKings) 

This is the investment with the longest odds on our card, but Joshua Palmer is highly appealing in this matchup. Palmer has only nine receiving touchdowns in his first three seasons, but gone are the days in which he was merely a role player for Los Angeles.

In fact, Palmer might be the No. 1 overall target for Justin Herbert and, at the very least, he is the incumbent leader of the pass-catching group for the Chargers. The former third-round pick has a physicality that comes in handy in tight spaces, and Palmer is also capable of outrunning the defense. The Raiders have a reasonably stout defense on paper after a strong 2023 on that side of the ball, but this DraftKings line seems mispriced.

Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III (-105, DraftKings)

All indications point to Kenneth Walker III being the clear lead option in Seattle’s backfield, and he has a nose for the end zone. The third-year back generated nine touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, accounting for 18 touchdowns in 30 NFL games, and Walker III also posted 19 touchdowns in his final collegiate season.

The volume should be there for Walker III in this game, and Seattle enters as a significant betting favorite, which only heightens the value. Denver allowed 15 rushing touchdowns to go along with eye-popping rushing yardage totals a year ago, and Walker III is capable of finding paydirt either in a goal-to-go situation or with a big play.

Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. (+210, FanDuel)

The Buccaneers’ defense has been outstanding against the run for the last few seasons, perhaps leading to a real discount on Brian Robinson Jr.’s price to score in the opener.

Washington does have a relatively big-name No. 2 running back in former Chargers standout Austin Ekeler, but that inclusion is overvalued when it comes to its impact on the role of Robinson Jr. this season. He projects to be the clear lead option on rushing downs for the Commanders, and Robinson used his physical running style to find the end zone on nine occasions in 2023. With odds above 2-1 on this FanDuel prop, Robinson is a strong anytime touchdown option this week.

Rams RB Kyren Williams (-115, DraftKings)

Kyren Williams has one of the highest implied odds to score a touchdown of any player in Week 1, which might scare off handicappers to some degree. There isn’t the “jackpot” quality with this investment, but it is also a play that can return value.

Williams scored 15 touchdowns in 12 games last season, finding the end zone in 75% of his outings. That rate may not be sustainable in 2024, but it doesn’t need to be for this handicap to be favorable, and the biggest concern about Williams from a season-long perspective is durability. The reservations about his size and ability to stay on the field for the long term don’t come into play much in a one-game scenario, and the Lions also allowed 15 rushing touchdowns in 2023.

In addition, there might be value in Williams to score multiple touchdowns, with odds in the +500 range available in the market.