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USATSI

From Tuesday, Feb. 18 to Sunday, March 9, there is at least one Big Ten basketball game every single day. Tonight's is a heavyweight matchup, with No. 14 Michigan State and No. 12 Michigan squaring off at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, Mich., at 8 p.m. ET. These two rivals are atop the conference standings, with the Wolverines (12-2) just edging out the Spartans (12-3) for first place. CBS Sports' Jerry Palm projects Michigan to be a No. 3 seed in the East region this year's NCAA Tournament, while his bracketology forecasts Michigan State to be a No. 4 seed in the Midwest. 

Michigan State at Michigan odds

  • Spread: Michigan -2.5
  • Total: 152.5
  • Money line: Michigan -152, Michigan State +127

Michigan opened as a slight 2.5-point home favorite and remains in that position as of Friday morning. The total has been nudged slightly, creeping up from 151.5 to 152.5. The Wolverines are -152 on the money line (wager $152 to win $100) while the Spartans are +127 (wager $100 to win $127). 

The SportsLine Projection Model model leans to the Under in this matchup and projects one side of the spread to hit over 50% of the time. You can see the model's latest projections, along with expert picks for Michigan State-Michigan, on SportsLine. SportsLine experts Matt Severance, Bruce Marshall and Chip Patterson have already locked in plays for this showdown as well.

Michigan head coach Dusty May has made major strides in his first campaign in Ann Arbor after coming over from Florida Atlantic. After finishing 8-24 last season, Michigan is one of only seven teams to be ranked in the top 25 on KenPom in both adjusted offensive efficiency (20th) and adjusted defensive efficiency (22nd). The Wolverines' biggest Achilles' heel is giving the basketball away, as they're 346th in the country with 14.4 turnovers per game. As a result of so many empty possessions, they play a lot of close games—all six wins on their current winning streak were by four or fewer points. Leading Michigan in scoring is a pair of 7-foot transfers, with former FAU center Vladislav Goldin at 15.7 points per game and former Yale big man Danny Wolf at 12.9. 

Tom Izzo made history last game after he passed Bobby Knight for the most Big Ten conference wins ever, thanks to Michigan State picking up a huge road win over No. 13 Purdue. After the Spartans started off conference play with nine straight victories, they've gone 3-3 in their past six contests. Michigan State has plenty of depth, as it has 10 players that average at least 15 minutes and 5 points per game. Senior guard Jaden Akins (13.1) and freshman guard Jase Richardson (10.4) are the team's two double-digit scorers. Michigan State could have a big edge late, as it's the seventh-best free-throw shooting team in the country (80.3%), whereas Michigan is 148th (73.0%).