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Bills vs. Texans game preview: Odds, picks, predictions and best bets
Get the latest betting odds and best bet recommendations for the Bills vs. Texans matchup in Week 5
| WHO | Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans |
| WHEN | Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | NRG Stadium | Houston, Texas |
| HOW | CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket |
Two of the top Super Bowl favorites in the AFC square off in Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season when the Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills. The Bills and Texans are both 3-1 and strong favorites to win their divisions and only the Chiefs and Ravens have better odds to win the AFC than these teams. Not only does that make this one of the best NFL games to bet on this week but it also could be a potential playoff preview.
After a scorching hot 3-0 start, the Bills were knocked back down to earth in a blowout loss to the Ravens on Sunday Night Football last week. The defense was the biggest culprit, as it allowed over 250 rushing yards to Derrick Henry (199) and Lamar Jackson (54). The injuries on the defense finally caught up with Buffalo, as the absence of linebackers Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard and nickel corner Taron Johnson made a big difference in that game.
The Bills will look to bounce back against a Texans team coming off a bounce-back game of its own. After getting trounced by the Vikings in Week 3, Houston won a hard-fought divisional game against the Jaguars last week. C.J. Stroud had his best game of the season with 345 passing yards, most of which went to star WR Nico Collins, who is now leading the league in receiving yards after catching 12 passes for 151 yards and a touchdown in the game.
Here are the current betting odds for Bills vs. Texans at some of the best online sportsbooks. These odds are current as of the most recent update of this article and will be updated daily throughout the week.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills spread | +1.5 (-112) | +1 (-110) | -1 (-110) |
| Texans spread | -1.5 (-108) | -1 (-110) | +1 (-110) |
| Bills moneyline | +108 | -102 | -120 |
| Texans moneyline | -126 | -118 | +100 |
| Over | Over 47.5 (-105) | Over 47.5 (-108) | Over 47.5 (-110) |
| Under | Under 47.5 (-115) | Under 47.5 (-112) | Under 47.5 (-110) |
Why bet on the Bills
The Ravens game was bad a matchup for Buffalo, whose biggest weakness (run defense) is one of Baltimore’s greatest strengths. The Ravens were also playing with desperation at home trying to avoid a 1-3 start. That lopsided outcome should not create too much doubt about the strength of this Bills team.
If you chalk up the Ravens game as just a bad matchup and a blip on the radar, then the Bills are still one of the best teams in the NFL. Buffalo entered last week No. 1 in DVOA and No. 1 in net EPA. Naturally they have fallen in both advanced metrics after struggling against Baltimore, but they are still 5th in DVOA and 3rd in net EPA. Those marks are well above Houston’s current standing in each of those categories (11th in DVOA, 17th in net EPA).
The Bills may be on the road, but getting points while betting on the stronger overall team is generally a good bet to make. The Bills’ offense should have success against the Texans’ defense, while the run defense should not be nearly as big a problem as it was against Baltimore. This should be a tightly contested matchup that could easily go either way, which means there is some nice value betting on the Bills this week.
Why bet on the Texans
Cue up the Stefon Diggs revenge game.
The Bills’ long-time No. 1 wide receiver was traded to Houston this offseason and has made a significant impact on the Texans’ offense. He has scored a team-high three touchdowns and is second on the team in both catches (25) and receiving yards (233) behind Nico Collins. He is sure to be playing with extra motivation this week as he faces his former team whom he did not leave on the best of terms.
Of course, the Diggs storyline alone is not a great reason to bet on the Texans, but their home-field advantage is one. C.J. Stroud plays significantly better in the friendly confines of NRG Stadium. Since the start of his rookie season, Stroud throws for nearly 80 more yards per game and has scored more than twice as many touchdowns when he plays at home (20) compared to on the road (9). Houston went 7-3 at home last season (including playoffs) and is 2-0 so far this season.
While they are not nearly as effective running the ball as a team like Baltimore, Houston also may be exploit the Bills’ run defense in a similar way as the Ravens. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik loves to establish the run early in games, and he could have workhorse Joe Mixon back for this game, even if he doesn’t start. Mixon probably won’t gain 199 yards like Derrick Henry just did, but he could be an X factor in this game if he is able to retun from an ankle sprain that kept him out last week.
Ultimately, this should be anyone’s game, and the betting odds suggest it’s essentially a pick’em. With that being said, the home team with the explosive offense is also a solid bet.
Best bet for Bills vs. Texans: Bills moneyline (+108, FanDuel)
We may be able to make a case for both sides of this exciting Week 5 matchup, but we have more confidence in the Bills right now. They may have looked terrible against the Ravens, but they looked like the best team in the AFC before that. They have looked much more dominant in their three wins than the Texans have.
Houston has not won any of its games convincingly the way Buffalo has, and its three wins have come against three underperforming teams this season in the Colts, Bears, and Jaguars. They needed a last-second touchdown last week to beat a Jaguars team that got trounced 47-10 by the Bills the previous week. The Texans are 0-3-1 against the spread so far this season while the Bills are 2-2.
Rather than taking the points, we like the Bills’ moneyline as the best bet in this game. There is some real value here late in the week after the Bills have gone from slight favorites in this game to a slight underdog. That means taking the +108 moneyline odds at FanDuel Sportsbook is a much better bet than simply taking the points.