Two National League East rivals square off on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball this week when the Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves at 7:10 p.m. ET. Philadelphia has rebounded from being swept by the New York Mets earlier this week by taking each of the first three games from Atlanta. The Braves will look to avoid a dreaded four-game sweep when they visit the Phillies Sunday night, while Philadelphia aims to keep winning and increase its lead in the NL East as we enter the final month of the regular season.
It's a matchup of youngster versus veteran as young right-hander Hurston Waldrep gets the nod for Atlanta while the Phillies turn to lefty Jesus Luzardo. Waldrep has been stellar in his brief MLB stint this year, posting both a 4-0 record and lowly 0.90 ERA. The former first-round draft pick has not allowed more than one earned run in any of his six appearances this season. Luzardo, meanwhile, is enjoying a solid year for the Phillies with a 12-6 record and 4.23 ERA. He had a rougher outing his last time out against the Mets, allowing four runs, but before that he struck out 12 over six innings of one-run ball against Seattle.
The Phillies enter Sunday as -165 money-line favorites (wager $165 to win $100) according to SportsLine consensus odds. On the other side, the Braves are +139 underdogs (wager $100 to win $139). The over/under for total runs scored is 9, with the Over priced at -101 and Under favored at -119.
Angelo Magliocca, also known as "Amags," is a regular contributor to The Early Edge and CBS Sports HQ, is a seasoned MLB handicapper up 123.5 units over the last three MLB seasons. He's put together a same-game parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday Night Baseball that includes star Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper.
Sunday Night Baseball Same-Game Parlay: +242, DraftKings (0.5 units)
The Phillies opened this series with a 19-run outburst on Thursday thanks in large part to a historic four-homer game from Kyle Schwarber, and while Philly won the next two games as well, those were much closer with both Friday and Saturday's victories coming by just a single run each time. The Phillies simply look like the better team in this matchup, but at the same time, it's tough and rare for any team to secure a four-game sweep over another in MLB, making Sunday's series finale especially interesting.
Jesus Luzardo 5+ Ks
Luzardo will take the mound after being ejected from his last start, albeit he was pulled from the game and ejected as he walked off the mound while mouthing off to the umpire. He threw fewer than 90 pitches for the third time in five August starts but still struck out better than one hitter per inning as he tallied five strikeouts across four innings of work. I'm going to take a shot tonight that Luzardo is highly motivated for a great start, and he doesn't need to do too much better than last start to hit a fifth strikeout here. Him getting upset with the umpire in his last start was due to multiple close pitches (probably strikes) being called balls, which caused him to walk extra batters. He once again won't have the benefit of umpire help, as tonight's home plate umpire is hitter leaning, but at the same time, Luzardo is a guy with a near 14% swinging strike rate who relies more on whiffs than called strikes for his strikeouts. If you want to boost the odds up even more, I don't hate going to six strikeouts here, but at that point I may want to look at Over 16.5 outs instead.
Bryce Harper 1+ hits
Bryce Harper had his 12-game hitting streak snapped yesterday with an 0-4 effort at the plate, but I think he gets right back on the board tonight against Waldrep. The young right-hander has been significantly worse against left-handed batters during his short stint in the majors, allowing a .275 average to lefties while holding righties to just a .109 average with five hits across 14+ innings. The 16 hits and six walks allowed to lefties in 14.2 innings paints a much different picture of outcomes, and tonight, I think the veteran Harper should have the upper hand. We need just one hit to cash this piece of the parlay, and I like getting to back Harper at home, where he's hit .308 this year, as opposed to a .238 average on the road. If they try to match up left on left later in the game, the Philly first baseman should still be in a fine spot, as he's actually been better facing lefties this year with a .286 average compared to a .258 against righties.
Braves +1.5
Lastly, despite the struggles against left-handed batters, Waldrep has been solid at preventing runs, having allowed just three runs in 30 innings so far at the MLB level. This game projects to be rather close and has potential to be lower scoring, in my opinion, so I'm going to do a little negative correlation here and play the Braves at +1.5 on the run line. This would have hit each of the last two nights, and it really would not surprise me to see Atlanta win the final game of the series here after coming close the past two days. But even if they don't win, we just need the Braves to keep it close as they look to avoid the sweep here. I think the Braves do just that. Atlanta was 14-6 coming into this series, and losing four games in a row should always be tough, but after how the team was rolling, you'd think they Braves have to win at least one of these games.
