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College football longshots: Three underdogs who can win the CFP
Is there any chance Boise State hoists the ultimate trophy?
Texas and Ohio State have emerged as the clear top two teams in the country so far this season. Alabama (despite losing to Vanderbilt) and Georgia (despite losing to Alabama) have shown the ability to play at that level, too.
But which longshots have a better chance of winning the national championship than their odds at college football sportsbooks suggest?
Tennessee (+2000, FanDuel)
The Volunteers’ defense has been better than expected, their offense less explosive than expected. But, despite a loss at Arkansas last week, this is still an overall excellent team with an offensive breakthrough more likely than a defensive regression since its quarterback, redshirt freshman Nico Iamaleava, is in his first season as the starter.
Highly touted edge rusher James Pearce Jr. has not fully unleashed himself yet, but the defense is stout against both the run and pass, anyway.
Iamaleava has flashed his talent but isn’t yet fully operational. He could make the leap at any moment. If that happens this season, Tennessee (4-1) will be right back in the championship race. Coach Josh Heupel knows how to scheme a high-powered offense if he has a quarterback capable of executing it.
The loss to Arkansas was a setback but not a killer in this new 12-team playoff era. Tennessee doesn’t likely need to beat both Alabama and Georgia down the stretch to make the playoff. In fact, such a tough schedule will help the Volunteers in the eyes of the CFP selection committee.
If they play well enough to make the playoff, they will be battle-tested, making their futures odds at FanDuel enticing.
Miami (+2200, DraftKings)
Many college football observers believe that Miami (6-0) was lucky to beat Virginia Tech and Cal the last two weeks. Yes, the Hurricanes beat Virginia Tech only after the Hokies’ game-ending Hail Mary touchdown was overturned and needed a 25-point second-half comeback to beat the Bears.
But the bottom line is that Miami won both games.
The Hurricanes are excellent offensively. Quarterback Cam Ward is arguably the best quarterback in the country. Damien Martinez is a proven running back who was one of the top players at his position in the transfer portal for a reason. The receiving corps is deep. Defensively, Miami stops the run and gets after the passer.
And now the Hurricanes are winning close games, which will be invaluable if they can qualify for the playoff.
DraftKings Sportsbook is currently offering Miami to win it all at +2200.
Miami is arguably the best team in the ACC. If the Hurricanes win the conference, a first-round playoff bye is highly likely.
Boise State (+20000, BetMGM)
Imagine if the great Broncos teams of the past, with coach Chris Petersen and quarterback Kellen Moore, had a chance to compete in a 12-team playoff for the national championship.
Petersen and Moore may be gone, but all these years later, Boise State (4-1) might finally get the chance to do just that, with the Broncos gaining status from sportsbooks.
Though they are widely projected to be the No. 12 seed among bracketologists, Boise State could actually earn a first-round bye. The top four highest-ranked conference champions as determined by the CFP selection committee will each earn a bye. If, say, the Big 12 champion has two or even three losses, which is more than plausible, the Broncos can finish above that team.
They could potentially be 12-1 with their lone loss being a three-point defeat on the road to an Oregon team that figures to be seeded quite high. Boise State should be favored in the rest of its games, though the team must still play at UNLV later this month and, if the Broncos get there, the Mountain West Championship Game.
A Group of Five team like Boise State winning a national championship is obviously quite the longshot, and its odds at BetMGM are priced accordingly. But winning three playoff games is easier than winning four, and that shorter path is a possibility for the Broncos.