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College Football Playoff 2024 odds shift after Week 3 action

The Tennessee Volunteers, among other programs, are seeing their odds change incrementally each week

Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel looks on from the sidelines during a game between Tennessee and Kent State at Neyland Stadium, in Knoxville, Tenn., Saturday, Sept. 14, 2024. Tennessee defeated Ken State 71-0.
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The third full week of the 2024 college football season largely went according to plan. In contrast to the previous week of action, upsets were few and far between, with only two ranked teams going down and both suffering losses to other ranked opponents. Still, there is movement in the national championship futures market, and liabilities are shifting in mid-September.

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Most impactful line shifts

BetMGM Sportsbook lists Georgia and Ohio State as the betting favorites to win the national championship, with Texas not far behind. Georgia opened at +500 over the summer, and Kirby Smart’s team has remained in the top spot throughout the process. Ohio State opened at +700 and, by virtue of an impressive start, is also garnering deserved attention at top sportsbooks.

The most notable movers in this week’s market, however, are in tiers below the top trio, and both come from the SEC. LSU began the summer at +1500 at BetMGM, but a season-opening loss to the USC Trojans in Las Vegas pushed the Tigers considerably down the board in comparison to other SEC foes. Prior to the team’s third game of the season, LSU was +5000 and attracting only a small handle, but the Tigers went on the road and engineered a comeback win over South Carolina. Brian Kelly’s squad trailed by as many as 17 points in the first half and needed a late touchdown to survive. However, that victory moved the Tigers from +5000 to +4000 in the market, and the emergence of the 12-team playoff keeps LSU’s goals on the table despite the early stumble.

From there, Tennessee continues to build buzz with impressive performances. The Volunteers, led by coach Josh Heupel, were +5000 over the summer, but that number has continued to drop. Tennessee was +3500 before the opener and +2200 prior to its third game following a standout win over NC State. Then, the Vols led 65-0 at halftime in a comical win over Kent State and could have threatened the century mark if not for the incentive to take the collective foot off the gas in the second half.

Tennessee has scored 51 points or more in each of the first three games and, in advance of the team’s biggest test to date in Week 4 with a trip to Norman, Okla, and a matchup with the Sooners, the Vols are down to +1600 to claim the national title at BetMGM. Tennessee has the fourth-highest percentage of tickets (6.7%) of any program.

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Where BetMGM is liable

The college football season is a marathon, not a sprint, but BetMGM has its biggest liability on three teams at this juncture. One is Tennessee at +1600 following its utter dominance through three weeks, and the Vols could only become more dangerous if they can pick up a road win in Week 4. Given the team’s placement in the SEC, Tennessee has a clear path to the 12-team playoff even with a loss or two, and the Vols face only three ranked teams the rest of the season.

Ohio State is another liability for BetMGM, which does not come as a surprise given the team’s massive national fan base. The Buckeyes have played only twice this season, but the team throttled Akron and Western Michigan by a combined score of 108-6. Ohio State faces a soft game on paper on Saturday against Marshall before the schedule picks up in considerable fashion. Coach Ryan Day’s team will face Michigan State, Iowa, Oregon, Nebraska and Penn State in succession, with the annual showdown against Michigan looming in the season finale in November. Ohio State has the largest ticket percentage (16.4%) of any team at BetMGM, with 17.1% of the total handle on the Buckeyes to win it all.

Finally, Alabama is enjoying early success in its first season following coach Nick Saban’s retirement, and bettors are noticing. The Crimson Tide moved from +1100 to win the national title before last week to +900 in the current market following a 42-10 road win over Wisconsin. Alabama was expected to hold serve in that matchup as a double-digit favorite, but the team won even more comfortably than projected behind a dominant two-way performance. At BetMGM, 12.8% of the total handle is on Alabama, trailing only Ohio State and Georgia. The Crimson Tide are enjoying a bye week before a much-anticipated home showdown against Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs on Sept. 28 in Tuscaloosa.