Most of the major college football action for Week 5 will take place Saturday, Sept. 27, in the SEC, with No. 4 LSU visiting No. 13 Ole Miss in the Magnolia Bowl before No. 5 Georgia hosts No. 17 Alabama between the hedges. Will the Tigers, Rebels, Crimson Tide or Bulldogs make the cut in our five best spread picks for Week 5?
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Best spread picks for Week 5
TCU +2.5 vs. Arizona State
Sonny Dykes' team has looked awesome through three games, especially on offense. Josh Hoover is making his Heisman case and has 11 touchdowns through the air so far to only two interceptions. The Horned Frogs are coming off a huge win over SMU in the Iron Skillet game, which could lead to a potential letdown on Friday in Tempe. However, the Sun Devils simply aren't as good as they were a year ago. Sam Leavitt is on pace to turn the ball over more, and Arizona State hasn't been able to put away good competition as convincingly as you'd expect. The SportsLine Inside the Lines team model likes TCU as well, with the Horned Frogs covering in 62% of simulations and winning in 59% of them.
No. 22 Notre Dame -4.5 vs. Arkansas
The Irish simply have to win this game to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. Arkansas is coming off an emotional road loss to Memphis, a game that saw the Razorbacks give up a late touchdown and then lose a fumble when they were in position to kick a potential game-winning field goal. Notre Dame has the talent edge and will be motivated to make a statement on the road. The Irish cover in 66% of SportsLine model simulations.
USC -6.5 vs. Illinois
The Trojans have quietly been putting up amazing offensive numbers, and this is their moment to truly emerge as contenders in the Big Ten. Jayden Maiava and Lincoln Riley have this machine going, while Illinois comes into this contest after a humbling loss to Indiana in Bloomington. Bret Bielema's group entered the year with CFP expectations, and the Illini can still make a run, but I believe USC is the better offense and should be able to get a late score to cover this line. The SportsLine model has the Trojans covering in 56% of simulations.
No. 4 LSU +1.5 vs. No. 13 Ole Miss
This is going to be one of the most important Magnolia Bowl games in recent memory because the winner will get a clear edge in the CFP race while the loser takes a massive hit. LSU rattled off five straight wins in this rivalry from 2016-20, but Kiffin's Rebels have split the last four meetings with the Tigers. Both teams believe this is the year for them to finally break through, which is likely why this is effectively a pick 'em game. The Rebels have uncertainty at the quarterback position and might platoon Austin Simmons and Trinidad Chambliss, while the Tigers are set with Garrett Nussmeier. LSU's defense has improved from a year ago, and I'll take the Tigers to break Ole Miss hearts in Oxford Saturday afternoon. The SportsLine model is going with the home team, as the Rebels cover in 61% of simulations and win in 63%. The money line result is an "A" grade play.
No. 6 Oregon +3.5 vs. No. 3 Penn State
James Franklin is 4-19 against teams in the AP top 10 during his tenure at Penn State. He's 3-10 against AP top 10 opponents when his team is also in the top 10. The Nittany Lions believe this is their year to win a national title and certainly have the talent to do so, but they'll actually need to prove they can beat a good team for many to believe. The Ducks have been in hostile environments before and have an underrated defensive unit. Dante Moore has only thrown one interception this season, and in this game, keeping the ball out of harm's way will be critical. Penn State might win, but Oregon should cover in what will be a close game. The SportsLine model sees the Ducks covering in 54% of simulations.
