Week 5 of the college football season is set to be a massive one, with a ton of ranked teams in action, including some notable ranked vs. ranked matchups, including Oregon at Penn State and LSU at Ole Miss. Interested in college football betting on the total, or Over/Under? Be sure to check out our top total picks for Week 5 of the college football season for five of Saturday's top games.
Best over/under picks for Week 5
Oregon vs. Penn State: Over 51.5
The game of the day on Saturday is in the Big Ten when Penn State hosts Oregon in a rematch of last year's Big Ten Championship Game, which the Ducks won. Both squads made the College Football Playoff a year ago and appear on track to do so again this season. Both Oregon and Penn State have blown out lesser competition en route to undefeated starts, and both are ranked in the top 10 of the latest AP poll with Oregon at No. 6 and the host Nittany Lions ranked No. 3.
The Ducks have done a great job retooling their roster under Dan Lanning, while James Franklin has an experienced roster with nearly every key contributor from last year's CFP team back in Happy Valley, including quarterback Drew Allar. Oregon is averaging over 50 points per game, while Penn State has scored 44 per game. The Ducks won the Big Ten title game 45-37, and while we may not see 82 points scored again, Over 51.5 seems like a good bet the way these offenses have kicked off 2025. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every college football game 10,000 times, has the Over hitting in more than 50% of simulations.
USC vs. Illinois: Over 60.5
The Trojans' worst offensive output of 2025 was 33 points in a win over Purdue. Lincoln Riley's team appears to have found one of the best quarterbacks in college football in Jayden Maiava, who already has over 1,200 passing yards and nine touchdowns in four games. We know USC can put points on the board, and it appears Illinois is struggling to keep points off the board. In their first real test of 2025, the Illini failed miserably, allowing 63 points to Indiana last week.
The Trojans' offense appears to be very potent, so if last week is any indication, Maiava and Co. could have a big day on offense against Illinois' defense, putting Over 60.5 well within reach. The SportsLine Projection Model has Over 60.5 hitting in 65% of simulations.
LSU vs. Ole Miss: Over 54.5
This one was already shaping up to be fun with two undefeated SEC squads facing off, but it was revealed on social media that Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin's daughter is dating LSU linebacker and team captain Whit Weeks. Kiffin, who loves to create a stir on social media, had a great three-word response to a post about the relationship: "Take the Over." Who are we to go against the coach's wishes?
The Tigers are 4-0 after a blowout win over Southeastern Louisiana last week in the team's best offensive performance to date. The Rebels, meanwhile, are 4-0 and have scored at least 30 in all four of their wins. Kiffin's offense has shined this year regardless of who's starting at quarterback, and LSU has the firepower to put points on the board, especially when quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is humming. Over 54.5 hits in 53% of model simulations.
Auburn vs. Texas A&M: Over 52.5
Jackson Arnold didn't get the homecoming he was looking for last week when the Tigers fell to his former team, Oklahoma, in a low-scoring affair where Arnold got beat up pretty badly. The Aggies, meanwhile, are fresh off a bye after a thrilling 41-40 win at Notre Dame two weeks ago. Mike Elko's squad has averaged over 40 points per game this year and the Aggies have also struggled defensively, even against some less than stellar competition.
Arnold had a great start to 2025 before last week's loss at Oklahoma, so this one does have the makings of a shootout. Will it be as high-scoring and back-and-forth as the Aggies' win at Notre Dame? That's probably unlikely, but the firepower is there on both sides to eclipse 52.5, which happens in roughly 50% of model simulations.
Indiana vs. Iowa: Over 48.5
The total here seems low after what we saw from both of these teams in Week 4. While it's common for Iowa to be in low-scoring games, the Hawkeyes allowed Rutgers to score 28 points last week in a 38-28 conference win, and Indiana just dismantled Illinois to the tune of 63-10. Iowa appears to have both a better offense and worse defense than we've seen in recent years, while Indiana looks to be just as dangerous as last year's squad that made the College Football Playoff.
Curt Cignetti's Hoosiers may have the best quarterback in the nation in Fernando Mendoza. The Cal transfer can do no wrong right now, with just under 1,000 yards along with 14 touchdowns to no interceptions on the year. If Mendoza and the Hoosiers put up 63 on what was supposed to be a very good Illinois defense, Over 48 seems like the most likely outcome on Saturday, especially with Cignetti always looking to prove a point in his team's victories. The Over hits in 50% of model simulations.
