Comparing Week 3 betting lines to pre-Week 2 lookahead lines

The Saints-Eagles matchup has had a drastic switch following each team’s Week 2 performance

Betting on the NFL truly is a difficult endeavor in which to succeed. One of the main reasons for that is the week-to-week variance we see from teams and players. We’ve all played fantasy football and had a bench player go off for 25 points. You put him in your lineup the following week and he scores three points and costs you your matchup. So much changes on a week-to-week basis. Most successful bettors don’t overreact too much to the highs and lows. That being said, they also know when they need to adjust their power rankings and opinions of teams based on what’s happening on the field.

Most online sportsbooks post lookahead lines for the NFL. This simply means that users can bet on Week 3 games before Week 2 is played. The dangers of betting lookahead lines is obvious; mitigating factors such as injuries can happen in Week 2 that certainly will impact the handicap and betting lines for Week 3. However, if you think you have a good idea of the market, it also could make sense to place an earlier bet. 

Let’s take a look at some of the betting lines for Week 3 that have moved the most, compared to the lookahead lines posted prior to Week 2. Are these movements justified, or are they based on recency bias and overreaction?

All betting lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. 

New Orleans Saints (2-0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)

One of the more shocking storylines to open the season has been the play of the New Orleans Saints. In Week 1, they throttled the Carolina Panthers. A lot of people didn’t react much to that win because the Panthers aren’t a very good team. But in Week 2, New Orleans went into Dallas as a significant underdog and beat the Cowboys rather easily. Through two weeks, New Orleans has outscored its opponents 91-29. 

If awards were handed out after two weeks, Derek Carr would have a real case for NFL MVP. Alvin Kamara appears to have returned to the form he had a few seasons ago, when he was one of the most feared running backs in football. Rashid Shaheed looks like one of the most dangerous receivers in the game. 

Sportsbooks have reacted to the strong start by the Saints. In the lookahead lines, New Orleans was a 3.5-point underdog against the Eagles for Week 3. As of Tuesday morning, New Orleans has become a 1.5-point favorite. A five-point swing is very significant in NFL betting, making this a very curious case.

It’s worth noting that the line moved to 1.5 (with the Eagles favored) before Monday night. After Philadelphia’s disappointing home loss to Atlanta on Monday Night Football, the line swung another three points toward the Saints, making New Orleans the favorite.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) vs. Denver Broncos (0-2)

We mentioned above that Carr might be one of the top contenders for MVP if the season ended today. Another name that would be right up there is Baker Mayfield, who has been extremely efficient in leading the Buccaneers to a 2-0 start, contributing with both his arm and legs. 

Tampa Bay went on the road in Week 2 and beat the Detroit Lions as a 7.5-point underdog. It was an extremely impressive victory and highlights that the NFC South still goes through Tampa Bay. It seems like a lot of fans and (maybe the oddsmakers themselves) didn’t believe that the Buccaneers, who won a playoff game last year, were going to repeat that performance this season. So far through two games, Tampa Bay has proven them wrong. 

On the other side of this matchup, Denver looks bad, to say the least. Bo Nix hasn’t shown much in his first two career games and he doesn’t have much in terms of weapons to support him. It feels like it will be a season with a lot of growing pains for the Broncos and head coach Sean Payton. 

Lookahead lines had the Buccaneers as 4.5-point favorites in this game. After an impressive showing by Tampa Bay and a poor one by Denver, the line is now up to 6.5 points. There is some juice on the Buccaneers side, so it’s probable that the next movement in this game would be trending toward making them a full touchdown favorite.

Detroit Lions (1-1) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-1)

Entering the season, the Lions were a popular pick to win the Super Bowl. While it’s entirely too early to rip up that futures ticket if you own one, it’s also hard to claim they’ve been impressive to open the season. Detroit needed overtime to beat the Los Angeles Rams in its opener and followed with a loss as a big home favorite against the Buccaneers. 

While it’s fair to say the Lions should be downgraded a bit from their preseason numbers, it’s also wise to say that the Cardinals might be significantly better than a lot of people expected. In their opener, they led the Buffalo Bills for a large part of that game and lost by a single possession. In their second contest, they dismantled the aforementioned Rams. 

Kyler Murray has been through the wringer the last couple of seasons, enduring injuries and criticism from fans and media alike. However, when he’s healthy and on top of his game, he’s one of the more dynamic quarterbacks in the NFL. Marvin Harrison Jr. entered the league as one of the most heralded wide receiver prospects in recent memory, and he showed why in his second game. 

Combine the downgrade of Detroit with the upgrade of Arizona, and you may not be shocked to hear that the Week 3 line has moved in favor of the Cardinals. Detroit was a 4.5-point favorite on the lookahead line, but currently, it is just a 3-point favorite. Those are some significant numbers to move across, but the Cardinals have impressed everyone, including the oddsmakers.

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) vs. Los Angeles Rams (0-2)

The 49ers looked extremely impressive in their season opener against the New York Jets, but they appeared just as unimpressive in their Week 2 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. That being said, they have the pedigree to earn the benefit of the doubt. A short week likely didn’t help as they played on Monday night in Week 1. You might be inclined to downgrade the 49ers after their Week 2 loss, but that might be an overreaction. 

One team that seems worthy of a downgrade is the Rams. They played the Lions tough in their opener, losing in overtime. But in Week 2, they were throttled by the Cardinals. Not only did they get beat up on the scoreboard, but they now are beat up physically. After losing Puka Nacua in Week 1, Cooper Kupp went down in Week 2. This is in addition to an already depleted offensive line. The television broadcasters in the Week 2 game also speculated that Matthew Stafford didn’t look to be 100% either. 

So despite losing outright as a favorite in Week 2, the Week 3 line has moved in favor of the 49ers. They originally were posted as a 4.5-point favorite over the Rams on the lookahead line. Now, San Francisco is laying 7.5 points, despite the expected absence of Deebo Samuel.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) vs. Buffalo Bills (2-0)

Trevor Lawrence entered the NFL and was considered by most to be a generational quarterback prospect. A lot of draft pundits called him the best prospect to enter the league in more than a decade. He struggled as a rookie, but almost all of that blame went to then-head coach Urban Meyer. He rebounded nicely in his sophomore season, leading the Jaguars to the playoffs. Then he took a step backward last year.

Now in his fourth NFL season, one has to wonder how much longer Lawrence will be given the benefit of the doubt. Through two games, the Jaguars are 0-2 and have scored just 30 points. The team has invested in him significantly, bringing in Doug Pederson, who is viewed as a quarterback-friendly head coach. In addition, they’ve signed weapons such as Christian Kirk and Evan Engram while drafting the likes of Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Etienne Jr. Despite that, Lawrence appears to have stagnated, if not regressed in his development. Jacksonville is viewed as a young team that could take that next step, but that’s unlikely unless its quarterback develops. 

On the other side of the matchup, the Bills are 2-0. They started slowly against Arizona in their opener but rebounded well enough to win. They controlled the game entirely against the Miami Dolphins in Week 2. This is a team that has proven itself in the regular season for years now, so it has earned the trust of most pundits.

Buffalo opened as a 4-point favorite over Jacksonville on the lookahead line. Now, the Bills are 5.5-point favorites after the Jaguars lost as home favorites against the Cleveland Browns.

Other movement

Most games saw some type of movement, compared to the lookahead lines. Other notable movements include:

• Las Vegas went from -5.5 to -7.0 against Carolina, but that has gone back to 5.5 following the announcement that Bryce Young is being benched in favor of Andy Dalton.
• Cincinnati went from -7.0 to -8.5 against Washington. The Bengals looked like a good team again, despite losing as time expired at Kansas City in Week 2. Washington beat the New York Giants, but Jayden Daniels has yet to throw a touchdown pass. 
• Indianapolis went from -2.5 to -1.5 against Chicago. Neither Anthony Richardson nor Caleb Williams looked impressive in Week 2. The Bears’ defense at least did enough to frustrate C.J. Stroud. 
• Houston went from -3.5 to -2.5 against Minnesota. This is a key move through a critical number. The Vikings were impressive last week, beating the 49ers, and Sam Darnold has looked good to start the season. The Texans won their game but struggled to put away Chicago. 

It’s worth noting that these lines will continue to move as the week progresses. Part of the handicapping process is deciding which line movements are worthy reactions and separating them from those deemed to be overreactions.