Comparing Week 5 NFL betting lines to lookahead lines

he Minnesota Vikings finally appear to be earning some respect from oddsmakers

Week 4 of the NFL season is in the books. The Vikings look as if they might never lose again, and Sam Darnold looks as if he was never a bust. Is Washington’s Jayden Daniels the best rookie quarterback ever? The Baker Mayfield MVP train is back on track after a temporary derailment in Week 3. 

As NFL fans react—and overreact—so does the betting market. Each week, sportsbooks post lookahead lines for the slate of games two weeks out. Bettors can wager on, say, Week 11 matchups before Week 10 is even played. Lookahead lines can be a worthy tool to see which lines changed the most and identify where there’s value in the market. 

Let’s look at some of the Week 5 NFL lines that saw major movement since Week 4’s games went final. All betting lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) at Atlanta Falcons (2-2)

The Buccaneers were blown out on their home field by the Broncos in Week 3. Tampa Bay followed up that clunker by dominating the Eagles in Week 4. Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield started the game 12-for-13 for 138 yards and two touchdown passes. Just a minute into the second quarter, he had three touchdowns to his name. 

The Buccaneers are 3-1, and the three teams they’ve beaten are a combined 8-1 in their other games. Also, the loss to Denver doesn’t look nearly as bad now after the Broncos defense manhandled Aaron Rodgers and the Jets in Week 4. Any doubt over Tampa Bay entering Week 4 should be gone after its latest performance. 

On the lookahead line for Week 5, Atlanta was a 3-point home favorite for Thursday night against the Buccaneers. As of Tuesday, the Falcons are just 1.5-point favorites. Atlanta beat New Orleans by two points as a 2.5-point favorite in Week 4, so the line movement is not likely to be the result of anything the Falcons did last week. This movement seems like a reaction to the impressive Tampa Bay victory as a home underdog in Week 4. 

New York Jets (2-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-0) in London

Oddsmakers were reluctant to buy into a Sam Darnold-led Vikings team in 2024, making the team the biggest longshot to win the NFC North. Since being drafted in 2018, he provided bad quarterback play to the Jets, subpar quarterback play to the Panthers and then sat a year as a backup for the 49ers. Not much was expected from Minnesota entering the season even before the season-ending injury to No. 10 overall pick J.J. McCarthy in the preseason. 

Minnesota was an underdog in three of its first four games. The lone game in which it was favored was against the Giants in Week 1, when oddsmakers had the Vikings as 1-point favorites in a game they would end up winning by 22. Despite its underdog status for much of the season, Minnesota is 4-0 and appears to be for real. Darnold might just be the league MVP through four weeks. 

Prior to Week 4, oddsmakers had the Jets as 1.5-point favorites over the Vikings in London. As of Tuesday at FanDuel, the Vikings are 2.5-point favorites. 

While much of the line movement can be attributed to the play of Darnold and the Vikings, the Jets also haven’t been overly impressive. They were held to nine points in a home loss to Denver in Week 4. Outside of a shellacking of New England in Week 3, the Jets haven’t played like the Super Bowl contenders they were expected to be prior to the season. Will that change in London?

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)

The Ravens began the season by losing their first two games, but any concern from that start is gone. They’ve since dominated the Cowboys and Bills in back-to-back weeks and are showing the full potential of a Lamar Jackson-Derrick Henry backfield. 

For Cincinnati, the Bengals finally got their first win of the season last week at Carolina but did little to answer the questions about their defense. Andy Dalton and the Panthers scored 24 points with running back Chuba Hubbard eclipsing the 100-yard mark on the ground. Luckily for Cincinnati, Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Chase Brown proved to be too much for Carolina. 

On the lookahead line, the Ravens and Bengals were a virtual pick ’em. As of Tuesday, Baltimore is a 2.5-point road favorite at FanDuel. The total has also moved from 47 to 50.5 points. Those two movements suggest that bettors are reacting to the leaky Cincinnati defense. 

Cleveland Browns (1-3) at Washington Commanders (3-1)

Through four weeks, the Browns have been a bad football team. Quarterback Deshaun Watson hasn’t shown much since 2020. He’s had injuries and suspensions, and when he’s been on the field, the results haven’t been pretty. Cleveland was better with Baker Mayfield prior to Watson’s arrival. The Browns also have been better behind Watson’s backups, such as Jacoby Brissett and Joe Flacco. As more time passes, the less likely Watson will magically return to his MVP-caliber form from half a decade ago. The Browns can only hope running back Nick Chubb returns healthy and looks like his pre-injury self.

On the flip side, rookie Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has been tremendous in his first four games. He’s completing over 82.1% of his passes and has accounted for 1,115 yards and seven touchdowns through the air and on the ground. After losing its opener, Washington has won three straight games and is quietly looking like a very solid group. 

The lookahead line had Washington favored by a point, but with Week 4 in the books, the Commanders are now 3-point favorites on their home field. That’s a display of respect to Daniels and the Commanders, while also being an indictment on the Browns and Watson. 

Other notable movements

There are other Week 5 matchups that have seen movement compared to the lookahead lines.

• Raiders at Broncos: The Denver offense might be a roller coaster, but the Broncos defense is the real deal. Denver held Aaron Rodgers and the Jets out of the end zone in Week 4, a week after shutting down Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers’ potent offense. Cornerback Patrick Surtain II has already shut down DK Metcalf, George Pickens, Mike Evans and Garrett Wilson this season. If Davante Adams suits up for Las Vegas, he could suffer a similar fate. Denver is now a 2.5-point favorite in this game after the lookahead line had this game as a pick ’em. 
• Cowboys at Steelers: Last week Pittsburgh lost for the first time this season, and Dallas picked up its first victory since Week 1. Despite that, the line has moved in favor of the Steelers. Original projections had the Cowboys as slight road favorites, but as of Tuesday Pittsburgh is favored on its home field. 
• Saints at Chiefs: Kansas City improved to 4-0 last week, but the Chiefs didn’t look impressive in the process. They scored just 17 points and lost their top wide receiver, Rashee Rice, to a scary-looking injury. Meanwhile New Orleans lost its second straight game. Despite all of that, the oddsmakers still slightly moved this line for Monday night’s game in favor of the Saints. After opening as a 6.5-point underdog, New Orleans is just a 5.5-point underdog as of Tuesday. More notably, the total dropped from 45.5 to 42.5 points. 

Other games have seen movements of half a point in certain directions, but that is common in the NFL betting market. The above games saw the most significant movement. Now bettors must decide whether they agree with the market’s reactions, or if they think a potential overreaction has created an opportunity.