The Indianapolis Colts have finally settled on their quarterback for the rest of the season. After bouncing between veteran Joe Flacco and dual-threat Anthony Richardson, the latter led Indianapolis into MetLife Stadium on Sunday and left with a comeback win.
Looking to continue their winning ways, the Colts (5-6) face the toughest task of any football team in Week 12: the Detroit Lions.
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Rarely does the NFL see this level of dominance out of a team, but the Lions (9-1) continue to play the role as an unstoppable force. Detroit has won eight straight and remains the heavy favorite to win the NFC (+120, BetMGM).
This matchup between the Lions and Colts carries the highest total of the Week 12 slate (as of Tuesday). The Lions have ballooned to a 7.5-point favorite as of Tuesday morning at FanDuel Sportsbook. Here are the current odds for Lions vs. Colts at some of the best NFL sportsbooks. As always, odds are subject to change, so be sure to line shop before placing wagers.
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Why the Lions can cover
The Lions have the best offense in football leading the league in scoring (33.6 points per game), more than three points better than the next best team. Explosive plays come aplenty, and there are too many weapons for a defense to take away.
A week after his five-interception performance against the Texans, quarterback Jared Goff starred against the Jaguars and soared back into the top three of MVP odds (+550, Caesars Sportsbook). He leads this Detroit offense that ranks second in offensive DVOA and leads the league in rushing.
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The Lions have two running backs who serve as perfect complements for one another. David Montgomery has become the short-yardage bruiser back, though he has the potential for much more. Jahmyr Gibbs is the finesse runner and the more explosive of the two, averaging a team-best 6.0 yards per carry.
The success in the run game allows for more play-action and success down the field. Receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is having an incredible season yet again and has scored at least one touchdown in eight straight games. But the return of Jameson Williams has lifted this passing game another level.
Against the Jaguars he hauled in a 64-yard touchdown and broke the century mark on just four catches. He has caught a pass for 35-plus yards in five of eight games (63%) and 50-plus in four of them.
That’s not to mention the fact that this defense is also second in DVOA despite the loss of Aidan Hutchinson. There aren’t many weak points for coach Dan Campbell’s squad that continues to roll week after week.
Why the Colts can cover
Richardson is coming off his best game of the season.
Prior to his return on Sunday against the Jets, Richardson had completed just 44% of his passes and had almost twice as many interceptions (seven) as touchdown passes (four). The offense sputtered with him under center. That was until Week 11.
But on Sunday he threw for 272 yards and ran for a pair of touchdowns. He was more alert in the pocket, made better decisions and was not afraid to use his legs (10 carries, second most this season).
With Richardson and superstar running back Jonathan Taylor in the backfield, the Colts have the potential to dominate the ground game. Controlling the time of possession battle is key against a Detroit team with an explosive offense.
The Colts defense will have its hands full against the Lions, but there are some positives to take from the last couple of weeks. While the Bills scored 30 points against Indy, the Colts intercepted Josh Allen twice. And while the Jets scored 27 points, Indianapolis limited New York to 253 yards of offense.
Also Lions quarterback Jared Goff ranks 27th out of 36 quarterbacks in turnover-worthy play rate (minimum 150 dropbacks), per Pro Football Focus. For what it’s worth, Will Levis (3.8%) ranks slightly better than Goff (3.9%).
Best bet for Lions vs. Colts: Colts +8 (-110, BetMGM)
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When will the Lions express train run out of gas? This is a well-oiled machine and the market has been unable to catch up. The Lions are the No. 1 team against the spread in the NFL (8-2).
There comes a point in time, however, when the line becomes a tad too high. Week 12 vs. Indianapolis is that time.
The Colts finally looked like a much more complete team against the Jets. Even with the run game struggling mightily—Taylor finished with 24 rushes for 57 yards—Indianapolis scored 28 points.
Those struggles behind a stout offensive line won’t persist. The Colts know this game can’t turn into a shootout and have the ability to take advantage behind a dual-threat quarterback and elite running back.
Note: This game is in Indianapolis. Goff sees a dip in production away from Ford Field, where the Lions average 37.6 points per game (against 29.6 on the road).
Richardson and the Colts (+8) keep things close. This spread has ballooned too high.
