Four Potential U.S. Open First Round Upsets

Which round 1 underdogs can pull off an upset in the US Open?

The U.S. Open draw is out and we’ve highlighted four underdogs who are likely to win outright in Round 1. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Katerina Siniakova (+270) vs Madison Keys

Madison Keys is one of the most accomplished players on Tour without a Grand Slam title. She’s made the finals here once and the semifinals two additional times. Her season thus far has been decent for her standards, however, she’s struggled with her fitness since Wimbledon, sporting a left thigh injury. She has played one match since Wimbledon and had to retire down 3-6 7-5 3-0 to Peyton Stearns. 

She’s had the left thigh wrapped in practice throughout the week and appears susceptible to a first round upset.

Katerina Siniakova is always a threat to beat nearly anyone on Tour despite her form or what surface she is playing on. She is the top doubles player in the world but is still strong playing singles. In 2024, Siniakova is 6-8 and +2.45u (17.5% ROI) as an underdog. At the US Open in her career, she is 4-7 and +0.50u (2.3% ROI) as an underdog.

Given the fitness concerns for Keys, Siniakova is an extremely worthwhile bet on the money line and game spread. This line is a gift for a Siniakova bettor, as she would have been worth a bet at +150.

Elina Avanesyan (+140) vs Beatriz Haddad Maia

Beatriz Haddad Maia has been on a downward trend this season after experiencing the best stretch of tennis of her career from 2022-2023. Having played 177 matches since the start of 2022, there may be more wear and tear on her body than Haddad Maia can handle. She retired midway through her first round match in Toronto three weeks ago due to a lower back issue. The following week in Cincinnati, she lost in the first round to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. She’s found some form so far this week in Cleveland, albeit versus lesser competition.

Avanesyan is a talented 21-year-old who has surprised many people in 2024, her first-year full time on the WTA Tour. To wit, as an underdog this year, she is 10-24 and +11.55u (34.0%). Her results on hard courts are more impressive; this year she is 6-7 and +9.95u (76.5% ROI).   

Avanesyan has no A+ weapons, but her all-around game is solid. The slower hard courts of the US Open should suit her game well, as she has shown with a 4-2 record in New York (including qualifiers). 

Having got her citizenship and playing under the Armenian flag over the summer, she has a very good chance here to get her first Grand Slam victory for Armenia.

Yafan Wang (+310) vs Maria Sakkari

Maria Sakkari has had a rather disappointing 2024, which has been her worst year on Tour since 2017. She’s attributed her issues this year not to her physical tools, but to her mental game. After being upset in the first round of the French Open she said she was having “intense anxiety” before the match, and it hampered her preparation and play.

After being upset in the third round at the Olympics by Marta Kostyuk, she took a month-long break and returned to Queens as the ninth seed. Perhaps the break will benefit her mental state. But she has a tough first round opponent in Yafan Wang.

Already 30 years old, Yafan Wang is seemingly on a different trajectory right now than Sakkari. Once a promising top-100 player, Wang struggled to find her form post-Covid. Last year, she committed herself to racking results on the ITF circuit and it has paid some dividends in 2024. On tour-level, hard courts in 2024 she is 16-11 and +8.65u (21.7% ROI). She’s 5-3 on the North American hard-court swing and should still be fresh for New York/ She’s 11-3 lifetime, including 5-4 as an underdog, at the US Open (including qualifiers).

If Sakkari is mentally rejuvenated, she is the better player and should win the match. She made the semifinals here in 2021 but lost as a -400 favorite in 2022’s second round and as a -350 favorite in 2023’s first round. As an underdog in good form, Wang is a real threat to upset Sakkari.

Thanasi Kokkinakis (+275) vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas has had a truly disappointing 2024 on hard courts given his talent. He has not made it to a semifinal on the surface this year. On top of that, he just fired his coach (his own father) two weeks ago.

His best win on a hard court this year was against Frances Tiafoe. Tsitsipas is 11-8 on hard courts this year, and in every loss but one, he was favored. His results in New York also have not been that promising. He has never reached the fourth round and has lost twice in the first round, once as a massive -2500 favorite.

Kokkinakis is not a top-50 player, but he has a big serve that can win him a match on any given day. He has had a decent summer lead-up run with a 5-2 record, with both losses coming in a third set to players on Tsitsipas’ level (Hubert Hurkacz and Sebastian Korda).

If Kokkinakis can serve well and pressure Tsitsipas’ backhand throughout the match, he will be able to force Tsitsipas to back-pedal and struggle. The price is too large to not fade Tsitsipas in the midst of a volatile stretch of the Greek’s career.

Two potential late-round upsets

Mirra Andreeva has a good chance to beat Iga Swiatek in their potential Round of 16 match. Andreeva is having a fantastic summer and is reaching new heights in her career, while Swiatek is experiencing a bit of a downturn in form. The downturn could be due to moving to hard court or a strenuous year that included a disappointing, by her lofty standards, bronze medal in Paris.

On the men’s side, Daniil Medvedev could beat Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals. Despite winning the Cincinnati 1000 tournament, Sinner did not look healthy during any match and it’s still difficult to trust Sinner’s body to hold up across two weeks of five-set matches. Also, his mental game could be anywhere considering the doping scandal that hit the media this week. Medvedev has had a disappointing hard court lead up to New York City, but he will be fresh and rarely disappoints at the US Open.