juan-soto-mets-imagn-images.jpg
Imagn Images

After signing a 15-year, $765 million contract to join the New York Mets this offseason, expectations were for Juan Soto to take the Mets over the top. Through 71 games, New York is sitting first in the NL East with a 45-26 record and Soto has made contributions with a .384 OBP, 13 home runs, and 36 RBI. Tampa Bay took the first two games of the series and will go for the sweep by sending Shane Baz (5-3, 4.97 ERA) to the mound, while the Mets will counter with Griffin Canning (6-2, 3.22 ERA) for anyone making MLB best bets.

Both teams hit right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching, one of the reasons why our computer model is using Over 8 runs between these two teams in its Sunday MLB parlay picks. You can also check out our Sunday MLB prop picks and Sunday MLB home run picks.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 12 of the 2025 MLB season on a 27-23 run on top-rated MLB sides picks. It has excelled making home run prop picks, returning more than 35 units of profit over the past two months. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

The model has broken down the MLB odds for Sunday and just revealed its top MLB picks. Combining the model's three picks into an MLB parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +1044 (risk $100 to win $530). New users can even take advantage of the DraftKings promo code offering $300 in bonus bets instantly with a $5 wager:

Here are its best bets for the MLB slate on Sunday

  • Over 8 runs in Mets vs. Rays (-105)
  • Mariners +1.5 vs. Guardians (-182)
  • Rockies money line vs. Braves (+278)
  • Combine these picks for a shot at a +1044 payout (odds subject to change)  

Over 8 runs in Mets vs. Rays (-105)

Both of these offenses are top-four in their respective leagues in runs scored and there were 12 runs scored in each of the first two games of this series. The Over has hit in five of the last six times that these two teams have met at Citi Field and the total has also gone over in eight of the last 10 games between these two teams overall. On Sunday, the model is projecting that these two teams combine for 9.3 runs on average and it's BetMGM where you can get the best price.

Mariners +1.5 runs vs. Guardians (-182)

This is the model's only A-rated pick for Sunday, as it predicts that Seattle covers on the run line in 75% of simulations. Cal Raleigh continues to carry the Mariners offensively with an MLB-leading 26 home runs and a .997 OPS on the season. The Mariners will be looking to complete the sweep on Sunday and Cleveland has lost seven of its last nine games overall. FanDuel is offering the best odds here and new users can also bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets if their first bet wins with this FanDuel promo code:

Rockies money line vs. Braves (+280)

A value play helps round out this Sunday MLB parlay, as the model has the Rockies winning outright in 34.0% of simulations to outpace the 26.3% chance of victory implied by the odds. Colorado has had a historically bad season at 13-57 entering Sunday, but the Rockies have a shown a bit more life since firing manager Bud Black. The Braves are perhaps having an even more disappointing season, as the expected pennant contenders are just 31-38 on the season. 

Pythagorean thinks that Colorado's record should be several games better and this is the stage of the season where you can find value in betting positive regression. We're playing this at +278 in our DraftKings MLB parlay but the best price is available at BetMGM and you can also add some first-bet insurance with the latest BetMGM promo code:

Want more MLB picks for today?

You've seen some of the model's MLB best bets for Sunday. Now, get run line, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times. 

Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today's top MLB picks from expert Matt Severance, who's on a sizzling 162-82 roll on his last 244 MLB picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who's up over 24 units.