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The Chicago Cubs have opened up a 4.5-game lead in the NL Central as we approach the halfway mark of the 2025 MLB season. On Sunday, they'll have a series rubber match against the Seattle Mariners. The Cubs hit five home runs in a 10-7 win over the Mariners on Saturday, and the offense continues to be the driving force in their success. They rank second in the MLB in runs scored (411), fifth in home runs (109), third in stolen bases (90) and fourth in OPS (.769). Even with Seattle sending Logan Gilbert (2.55 ERA) to the mound on Sunday, the Cubs generally tend to score runs in bunches, and the SportsLine Projection Model is all over Chicago +1.5 as one of its top MLB picks today.

It's backing Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki and Carson Kelly to continue to stay hot on Sunday as part of its MLB parlay on Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any MLB picks or building any MLB parlay picks, you'll want to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 13 of the 2025 MLB season on a 37-30 run on top-rated MLB sides picks. It has excelled making home run prop picks, returning more than 35 units of profit over the past two months. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

The model has broken down the MLB odds for Sunday and just revealed its top MLB picks. Combining the model's three picks into an MLB parlay at Caesars would result in a payout of +565 (risk $100 to win $565). New users can also double their winnings on their next 10 bets after their first wager of just $1 with the latest Caesars Sportsbook promo code.

Here are its best bets for the MLB slate on Sunday

  • Athletics money line vs. Guardians (+106)
  • Over 7.5 runs in Giants vs. Red Sox (-102)
  • Cubs run line +1.5 vs. Mariners (-140)
  • Combine these picks for a shot at a +565 payout (odds subject to change)  

Athletics money line vs. Guardians (+106)

The Athletics are in a state of transition as they play in Sacramento while awaiting a stadium to be built in Las Vegas, but they have managed to win six of their last nine games thanks in large part to improved starting pitching. Meanwhile, the offense has been solid throughout the season, ranking 13th in runs scored (335), seventh in home runs (98) and ninth in team OPS (.735). The Guardians, on the other hand, have lost 15 of their last 24, which is why the model predicts that the Athletics win in 55% of its simulations. FanDuel is offering the best price on Athletics ML, and you could also get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins with the latest FanDuel promo code.

Over 7.5 runs in Red Sox vs. Giants (-102)

The Red Sox's decision to trade Rafael Devers to the Giants earlier this week sent shockwaves through baseball and dramatically increased the stakes for a three-game series taking place between these two franchises this weekend. The Red Sox scored a 7-5 win in Game 1, but Devers hit a two-run homer in the third inning of Game 2 to help deliver a 3-2 victory for his new team to level the series. Now it will be Lucas Giolito vs. Robbie Ray in the rubber match, and the model is predicting that these two offenses get back on track. It predicts 8.9 combined runs on average, with the Over hitting in 62% of simulations. DraftKings is offering the best payout for over 7.5 runs, so don't forget to check out this DraftKings promo code before making any MLB bets.

Cubs +1.5 vs. Mariners (-140)

Gilbert is coming off a season where he made his first All-Star appearance and finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting, but he's only been able to make seven starts so far in 2025. Now he'll have to match up with a dynamic offense in just his second start back after missing six weeks with a right elbow strain. The Cubs have six players who have already reached double-digits in home runs this season, and five of their regular starters have an OPS of at least .800. The model says the Cubs cover the spread in 71% of simulations on Sunday, making Cubs +1.5 one of its A-rated picks.

Want more MLB picks for today?

You've seen some of the model's MLB best bets for Sunday. Now, get run line, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times. 

Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today's top MLB picks from expert Matt Severance, who's on a sizzling 168-93 roll on his last 261 MLB picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who's up nearly 19 units.