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Georgia vs Ole Miss: Game preview, stats and best bets
Ole Miss’ playoff chances could ride on the outcome of this game against Georgia
The Ole Miss Rebels host the Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday, and you can argue that no team has more at stake this week than Ole Miss.
Ole Miss (7-2) is No. 16 in the College Football Playoff rankings – but with a loss to 3-6 Kentucky and no wins over ranked teams (though South Carolina, which the Rebels beat 27-3, could climb into the top 25). No. 3 Georgia is the final ranked opponent on Ole Miss’ schedule.
With a win, Ole Miss would firmly vault into the playoff race with a signature quality victory. With a loss, the Rebels would all but be eliminated.
Ole Miss has developed into a strong program under Lane Kiffin. The Rebels will reach their fifth straight bowl game, have finished in the top 11 in two of the last three seasons and are coming off of an impressive 63-31 win over Arkansas last week.
However, they’ve never beaten Georgia or Alabama in Kiffin’s tenure (beginning in 2020).
Georgia (7-1) looks elite as usual, with wins this season over No. 5 Texas and No. 23 Clemson. The Bulldogs’ only loss was to No. 11 Alabama.
Ole Miss hasn’t beaten a team that finished top 10 since 2015. They have 13 straight losses against those teams, and by an average score of 49-24 (including a 52-17 beatdown by Georgia last year). Ole Miss hasn’t beaten a Georgia team that finished ranked since 1976.
The odds suggest the Rebels could break through Saturday. Georgia is favored by just 2.5 points across the board and is -135 to win at DraftKings. Ole Miss is +120 to win at Caesars Sportsbook.
The over-under is 54.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook and 55.5 at Caesars Sportsbook.
Why bet on Georgia
Georgia has won 52 straight games against teams other than Alabama. Ole Miss is not Alabama.
The Bulldogs’ defense is loaded with first-round prospects: edges Jalon Walker (5.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks) and Mykel Williams (5.5 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks in six games) and safety Malaki Starks. Defensive lineman Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (8.0 tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks) has also been quite disruptive.
Running back Trevor Etienne (453 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground and 130 receiving yards) can be dynamic. Receivers Arian Smith (31 catches for 503 yards and three touchdowns), Dominic Lovett (38 catches for 389 yards and three touchdowns) and Dillon Bell (30 catches for 360 yards and four touchdowns) give quarterback Carson Beck options.
Ole Miss will be down one of its weapons, as running back Henry Parrish Jr. (678 yards and 10 touchdowns rushing) got hurt last week and will be out for this game.
Why bet on Ole Miss
While Georgia has only lost one game this season, the Bulldogs are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games. Ole Miss, on the other hand, are 7-3 ATS in their last 10.
Quarterback Jaxson Dart (72% completion rate for 3,210 yards, 21 touchdowns and three interceptions) leads Ole Miss’ explosive passing offense.
His primary target, Tre Harris (59 catches for 987 yards and six touchdowns), was hurt last week. So, Dart turned to Jordan Watkins, who had eight catches for 254 yards and five touchdowns against Arkansas.
The Rebels generate pressure throughout their front seven. Suntarine Perkins, Princely Umanmielen, Jared Ivey and Walter Nolen have combined for 37.5 tackles for loss 25.5 sacks.
That pressure could further rattle Carson Beck, who has thrown 11 interceptions in his last five games (vs. just 10 touchdowns)
Best bet for Georgia vs. Ole Miss
Ole Miss first half winner (-104, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Ole Miss has been a hot-starting team, leading at halftime in seven of its nine games, even including a loss to LSU. The only games the Rebels trailed at halftime (against Kentucky and Oklahoma) saw them leading until the final 30 seconds of the second quarter.
Georgia has trailed three times at halftime – against Kentucky, Alabama and Florida last week. Even when still leading against lesser teams, the Bulldogs have taken a while to pull away.
In fairness, Georgia jumped to a 23-0 halftime lead at Texas. But when you look at the rest of their box scores, that games seems like an outlier.