The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can visit SportsLine for our model's main market bets (spread, total, money line) but if you are looking for ALL our personal best bets for free, check out our recently launched Inside the Lines blog. These are just a fraction of our best bets, which are all free on our new blog. We will be providing our team's personal best bets for every NFL game during the 2025 season.
Here are our picks for Monday Night Football:
Main Markets
The early lookahead consensus lines were Baltimore -3.5, 49.5, but that has moved to Ravens -4.5, 52.5, which has resulted in minimal main market value. The Ravens cover in 52% of simulations, the game goes over in 52% of simulations and the Ravens win outright in 62% of simulations.
Technically the best value is on Detroit ML at +205 (implies under 33%, sim has them at 38%) on Caesars and maybe as a Ravens fan I should take this to "hedge happiness," but I can't.
After the teams combined for 93 points in Week 2, the steam on the over isn't surprising. If you like that action, then you'll want to grab 52.5 right away because the line appears to be moving even higher 53.5 (-105 over). While the model leans over, keep in mind that Baltimore scored 14 points from defense (Roquan Smith 60+ yard scoop and score) and special teams (blocked punt leading to short field) and the Lions' 52 points came against a horrendous Bears defense.
Baltimore's defense was abysmal in the final five minutes versus Buffalo because they were gassed (85 snaps for the game). They really only allowed 10 to Cleveland because one TD was a two handed tip from Marlon Humphrey on 4th down to the Browns' WR.
Lamar Jackson Over 215.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Oddsmakers still can't get it through their heads that Lamar Jackson is a great passer with great wide receivers. His career sub-200 yards per game was a reflection of the Greg Roman era, a few games where he exited early due to injury and a lack of wide receivers. Since last season, Lamar has averaged 240 passing yards per game and has gone over this line 13 of 21 games.
He had 287 passing yards versus Detroit a few seasons ago in a game where the Ravens dominated and he didn't even play in the 4th quarter. The model projects him for nearly 250 yards, which can come in two different game flow scenarios. One, he gets off to a fast start versus a defense that is still getting used to playing without the departed DC Aaron Glenn. Or, this becomes a shootout like he's had against Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Either way, this should cash because we don't expect the Ravens to run it for 250 yards.
Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-180 Fanatics)
The line implies around a 64% chance, but with a 2.2 projection our model has this closer to a 75% chance. Isaiah Likely may be back, which allows them to take Mark Andrews off the field. He does not seem right after the AFC Divisional debacle versus Buffalo. Fewer two TE sets is actually a good thing for Lamar's passing TDs since it's been replaced with more 3 WR sets. That 3rd WR is now the combined touchdown beast of DeAndre Hopkins and Tez Walker.
Hopkins was robbed of one TD last week. He should have 3 TDs on 4 receptions as a Raven. Tez Walker has 3 career receptions all for touchdowns.
Jared Goff Over 0.5 Pass Interception (-120 BetMGM)
Goff is not interception prone, but he does average +0.1 more on the road and has thrown a pick in over half of his road games. He's also had an interception in his last 3 games versus quality competition (Green Bay week 1, playoffs vs Washington, Week 18 game vs Minnesota for the division).
Our model has Goff at 0.77 INTs, which translates to around a 68% chance, good value against the 54.5% the line implies. Baltimore's talented secondary was unusually bad catching interceptions since Geno Stone left for the Bengals. They should have had two last week, but Marlon Humphrey tipped an INT off both of his palms, resulting in a TD.
The Ravens have emphasized turnovers as the key to getting their defense back to elite levels and a particular emphasis on catching interceptable balls. Even though he dropped on in Week 1 rookie Malaki Starks, 2nd year CB Nate Wiggins, and even Jaire Alexander (if he plays) all can actually catch the ball when it comes to them.
Props Cheat Sheet
Don't like the picks you see above? These are 'automated picks' based on straight projection vs best line/price as of Thursday afternoon. The lines may not be the same as above because this was updated later.
QUARTERBACKS
Jared Goff [31.5] Under 34.5 (-102 FD) Pass Attempts | Last 20: 14-6 | CS: 1-1
Jared Goff [0.77] Yes Pass INT -120, 54.5% (FD) | Last 20: 8-12 | CS: 1-1
Lamar Jackson [248] Over 215.5 (-114 FD) Passing Yards | Last 21: 13-8 | CS: 1-1
RUNNING BACKS
Derrick Henry [16.4] Under 18.5 (-105 MGM) Rush Attempts | Last 21: 11-10 | CS: 2-0
Derrick Henry [93] Over 85.5 (-105 FAN) Rushing Yards | Last 21: 12-9 | CS: 1-1
Derrick Henry [0.85] Yes Anytime TD -210, 67.7% (FD) | Last 21: 16-5 | CS: 1-1
David Montgomery [12.6] Over 9.5 (+100 MGM) Rush Attempts | Last 17: 12-5 | CS: 2-0
Jahmyr Gibbs [12.9] Over 12.5 (-105 MGM) Rush Attempts | Last 20: 11-9 | CS: 0-2
RECEIVERS
DeAndre Hopkins [0.45] Yes Anytime TD +375, 21.1% (CS) | Last 21: 7-14 | CS: 2-0
Tylan Wallace [0.15] Yes Anytime TD +950, 9.5% (FD) | Last 13: 2-11 | CS: 1-0
Brock Wright [0.19] Yes Anytime TD +1100, 8.3% (FD) | Last 11: 3-8 | CS: 1-0
Jameson Williams [3] Under 3.5 (-118 MGM) Receptions | Last 18: 8-10 | CS: 1-1
Zay Flowers [4.6] Under 5.5 (-135 MGM) Receptions | Last 19: 11-8 | CS: 0-2
Devontez Walker [0.22] Yes Anytime TD +1100, 8.3% (FD) | Last 3: 2-1 | CS: 1-0
What makes a bet an "Inside the Lines Best Bet?"
These are ones where:
1) Best Projection: Our SportsLine Model's projection shows clear value versus the line and we love certain statistical trends, X's and O's and subjective supporting data that supports our side but isn't directly factored into the model. For example, say we love a running back to go Over 14.5 carries and his backup is projected for 5.5 carries, but the backup is questionable and there's a chance he can be ruled out, which surely will change our projection to 16.5 (third-stringer gets 3.5) and the line would likely go from 12.5 to 15.5. If we have value on a side and the only unknown factors that will change are in our favor, we'll consider it our "Best Projection."
AND
2) Best Price: There is an outlier best price that we should take advantage of before it steams in "our direction." In most of these cases, the best-priced book is using "standard odds making logic" to set the line, but our team has identified a unique situation where standard odds rules don't apply. For example, maybe a player is -110 to throw an interception, but in his last three seasons he has averaged just 0.4 interceptions on the road compared to 0.7 at home because the team plays on a fast track at home and averages 5+ more pass attempts at home.
Step 1 provides greater accuracy and Step 2, especially when combined with a nice Profit Boost or Promotion, significantly lowers the bar for being profitable ... which is why we like to feature our best line sportsbooks offers.
