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To get you ready for your fantasy football draft, we have a series of 'Would You Rather' style videos to break down who you should take for your lineup.
Patrick Mahomes will be one of the first quarterbacks off the board in your fantasy draft, but is it worth waiting a few rounds to draft another crafty quarterback? We break down the QB1 situation.
Riley Greene (DET) +475, BetMGM
Greene has 3 career plate appearances against Shane Baz and is 2-2 with a home run, a single, and a walk. He's hit 22 home runs this season—21 of them against right-handed pitchers—while batting .311 with a .991 OPS in those matchups. Baz has allowed 16 home runs in 17 starts this season. While he's actually been better against left-handed hitters, Greene's strong splits and success against Baz make this a worthwhile play. We set Greene's line at +370 to homer.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) +450, DraftKings
Landen Roupp doesn't allow many home runs, but anytime you can get Schwarber at this price, our model sees value. Schwarber has 27 home runs in 90 games this season. While he's dominated lefties this year, he's historically been stronger against right-handed pitching, with a career .521 slugging percentage. We set Schwarber's line at +350 to go deep.
Ketel Marte (ARI) +450, DraftKings
Marte at +450 is excellent value, especially considering his line is as low as +255 on FanDuel—right around where we'd set it. He's back on the road, where he's slashing a ridiculous .336/.421/.709 with 11 home runs in just 30 games. Marte is 11-38 with 2 home runs in his career against Yu Darvish, who is making his season debut after missing the first half with an elbow injury. At nearly 39 years old, Darvish may show some rust. We set Marte's line at +260 to homer.
Ben Shelton over Sonego & Iga Swiatek over Tauson ML Parlay -150 (FanDuel)
Both enter today in top form. Shelton hasn't dropped a set and faces a worn-down Sonego coming off a grueling five-setter. Swiatek's consistency, grass-court improvements, and 2–0 record against Tauson make her a confident pick to reach the quarters.
Week 1 Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 (-115 FanDuel)
Our model projects a seven-point victory for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1, giving them a 63% chance of covering the -2.5 spread. Tampa Bay has consistently performed better on the road than at home over the past two seasons. In 2023, they averaged four more points per game on the road, and in 2024, they maintained a three-point road advantage. Their defense has also been remarkably consistent, allowing the same number of points regardless of venue. Last season, the Bucs posted a +5.4 point differential on the road, which improved to a phenomenal +8.2. Their run defense has been especially good, holding opponents to just 3.7 yards per carry in 2024 and 3.8 in 2023. Notably, they limited Falcons star Bijan Robinson to just 63 and 61 rushing yards in their two meetings last season — with 63 being his career high against Tampa Bay.
Top Win Total Wager: San Francisco 49ers Under 10.5 Wins (-115 FanDuel)
While the 49ers are undeniably a Super Bowl-caliber team when fully healthy, our model projects them to finish with just 9.2 wins this season. This projection is largely due to the strength of their division, where rivals like Seattle are expected to exceed their own win totals. The 49ers' success hinges on the health of several key players, many of whom are aging or have a history of injuries. Left tackle Trent Williams is nearing 37 years old. Tight end George Kittle, who turns 32 in October, has never played a full 17-game season. Running back Christian McCaffrey missed most of 2024 and was a shadow of his former self when he did play. Quarterback Brock Purdy is not the type of player who can carry a depleted roster — his passer rating dropped 17 points when the team was banged up, and the 49ers won just six games with him under center last year. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk missed 10 games. Even backup running back Isaac Guerendo, who has flashed potential, has durability concerns dating back to college.
If the 49ers stay healthy, they could win 13 games. But our model estimates only a 25% chance of that happening. With even one or two key injuries, their ceiling drops to 11 wins or fewer — making the under a strong play.
Value Pick to Win Division: Los Angeles Chargers +310
The Kansas City Chiefs remain the favorite to win the AFC West, but the Los Angeles Chargers offer the best value. Our simulations give the Chargers a 34% chance to win the division, compared to just 24% implied by their +310 odds.
This is a regular season bet, and the Chargers are built to succeed over 17 games. Despite a disappointing playoff loss to Houston, there are plenty of reasons to believe this team is on the rise. Quarterback Justin Herbert started slowly under new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, averaging just 163 passing yards and 25 attempts per game over the first five weeks. However, he finished the season strong, averaging 255 yards and 32 attempts per game, along with 2.25 passing touchdowns over his final four regular season games. He's poised to return to his 3,800-yard, 30-touchdown form.
After a slow-ish start, Ladd McConkey averaged nearly six receptions, 88 yards, and half a touchdown per game down the stretch. The Chargers' backfield is also in great shape with Najee Harris and first-round pick Omarion Hampton, both of whom are younger and healthier than last year's injury-prone duo of Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins.
Value Pick to Miss Playoffs: Cincinnati Bengals +130
The Bengals are being priced as a playoff contender, but our model suggests otherwise. Cincinnati misses the playoffs in 57% of simulations, which would imply odds closer to -130 — not the +130 currently available.
The team has several red flags. Their defense remains a concern, and now star pass rusher Trey Hendrickson may hold out. First-round pick Shemar Stewart still hasn't signed. Offensively, they retained Tee Higgins, but that move doesn't address their core issues. The AFC is stacked, and it's hard to see which 2024 playoff team the Bengals are likely to leapfrog. The Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills are near locks to make the postseason. The Texans are favored to win the AFC South again, and both the Chargers and Broncos are ascending teams with strong point differentials. Even the Steelers look improved with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and D.K. Metcalf replacing George Pickens.
Cincinnati also plays in the toughest division in football (AFC North) and plays the other toughest division, the NFC North. Toss in the fact that many of their "weaker" opponents from last season — including the Jaguars, Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins — are expected to be significantly better in 2025, and you have a real uphill climb for an non-playoff team last season to make it this season.
Best Bet to Win Conference: Buffalo Bills +350 to +375
The Buffalo Bills are being undervalued in the AFC Championship market. While the odds imply a 22% chance of winning the conference, our model gives them a 37% probability — a massive edge.
Buffalo has a 60% chance of securing the No. 1 seed, thanks to a relatively soft division and a favorable schedule that includes home games against the Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals, Eagles, and Buccaneers. The first-round bye is a huge advantage in the playoffs. Even a seven-point favorite in the Wild Card round only wins about 75% of the time — but a bye guarantees 100%. Home-field advantage in Buffalo, especially in January, is another major factor that boosts their chances.
Pick to Win Super Bowl: Baltimore Ravens +700
This bet is paired with Buffalo to win it all for a reason — if either team wins, you're up still up +500. The Ravens and Bills combine for a 37% chance to win the Super Bowl, according to our model, while their odds imply just 16.6% each.
Baltimore enters the season with a revamped secondary. Their biggest weakness last year was poor safety play by veterans Marcus Williams and Eddie Jackson the first two+ months of the season. But that's been addressed with the addition of rookie Malakhi Starks and the move of Kyle Hamilton to free safety. They also added former All-Pro corner Jaire Alexander and top free agent from last season, Chidobe Awuzie to replace Brandon Stephens. Offensively, Lamar Jackson now has DeAndre Hopkins and a fully healthy Keaton Mitchell to work with.
Value Pick to Win Super Bowl: Buffalo Bills +700
Buffalo is also a strong Super Bowl value play. Our model gives them a 20% chance to win it all, compared to just 12.5% implied by their current odds. Even if they lose to Baltimore in Week 1, they remain a great value — and if their odds drift to +1000 or higher from a week 1 loss, they become an even stronger buy, assuming no major injuries.
Top Player Stat Future: Brian Thomas Jr. Over 6.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-110)
Brian Thomas Jr. is poised for a breakout season, and our projections suggest he could hit the over on 6.5 receiving touchdowns before November. Even if Travis Hunter commands 25% of team receptions — the same share BTJ had as a rookie — Thomas could still see 30% or more, given the lack of depth at wide receiver and tight end.
Hunter's presence will only make Thomas more efficient. Last season, Thomas accounted for 25% of team receptions, 35% of receiving yards, and a staggering 53% of receiving touchdowns. He's the rare player who can dominate both in volume and efficiency, with the potential to reach 100 receptions while also benefiting from Hunter drawing defensive attention.
With Trevor Lawrence's passing touchdown line set between 21.5 and 22.5, it's hard to imagine Thomas not accounting for at least seven of those scores. If he doesn't, who will? Brenton Strange? Dyami Brown? Parker Washington? Even if Hunter has a strong season, Thomas is the clear red zone threat and should easily surpass this total.
Best Bet for Rookie of the Year: Travis Hunter (+900 to +1000)
Travis Hunter offers tremendous value in the Offensive Rookie of the Year market. While Cam Ward and Ashton Jeanty are the current favorites (+250 to +350 range), Hunter's unique two-way impact gives him a narrative edge that voters won't ignore.
Although the award is technically for offensive performance, Hunter's ability to contribute on defense will influence the voters who won't be able to stop themselves from saying "it's amazing he can put up numbers at WR while also playing defense". If he intercepts Cam Ward in the same game he scores a touchdown, that moment alone could swing the vote. Unlike the Heisman race, where team record wasn't a major factor in his winning, NFL voters will reward him for winning more than the other top candidates. Jacksonville has a 40% chance to make the playoffs — significantly higher than Tennessee or Las Vegas — and if they do, Hunter will be seen as the biggest reason why. All 3 teams were at 4 or 3 wins last season.
Pick to Win MVP: Joe Burrow (+650)
Joe Burrow is in prime position to win MVP this season. Much like Josh Allen last year, Burrow can benefit from the "lifetime achievement" narrative and the perception that he's winning with less talent. Outside of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the Bengals' roster is arguably one of the weakest in the league.
Burrow's MVP case hinges on Cincinnati making the playoffs, which our model gives a 43% chance. If they do, it will almost certainly be because Burrow puts up monster numbers. In 85%+ of those playoff-bound simulations, he wins MVP. This is a one-year window — if he wins it in 2025, the narrative won't be there in future seasons.
It's the best time of year for tennis fans: Wimbledon is here. Starting Monday, you'll be able to wake up and watch the world's top players battle it out on the grass courts of the All England Club. Here are two futures to make the fortnight even more exciting:
Novak Djokovic +105 (BetMGM) & Taylor Fritz +400 (Caesars) To Reach The Semi Finals
Djokovic has fallen to Carlos Alcaraz in each of the past two years, but this time he's landed in a different quarter of the draw, giving the seven-time winner a clearer path to the semis. Meanwhile, Fritz finds himself in the tournament's most open quarter. Fritz has twice reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals, including last year, and he's carrying strong momentum after winning the title in Eastbourne. His grass-court form makes +400 an intriguing price.
The Rays are just 1.5 games back of the Yankees, who have been struggling mightily over the past month. Tampa Bay's biggest weakness is at shortstop, but they should be getting Ha-Seong Kim back shortly, and top prospect Carson Williams has been raking in the minors over the last month. The potential return of Shane McClanahan in the next month would also be a major boost. The Rays are winning the division in 25% of simulations, so this is a good longshot play at +500 (16.7% implied odds).
The Phillies were our pick to win the NL East before the season, and we like this bet even more now with the Mets on a downward trend. Philadelphia is winning the division in around 80% of simulations, making this a strong value even at -180.
The Brewers are making the playoffs in 75% of our simulations. While they don't have a ton of star power, they feature solid pitching and a lineup full of hit-over-power players — a formula that works well for regular season success. Young players like Caleb Durbin and Joey Ortiz struggled early but have improved recently. The potential returns of Brandon Woodruff and Nestor Cortes could further strengthen their roster.
This play complements the Brewers' playoff chances and reflects the limited number of postseason spots. The Cardinals would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but they have four teams within three games of them. Despite exceeding expectations, this was supposed to be a rebuilding year. The Cardinals are more likely to sell at the deadline than buy, and this price could inflate soon.
This is a value-based play focused on selling high on Jacob Misiorowski and buying low on Baldwin. Misiorowski has made just three MLB starts and, while dominant, has a history of command issues and the injury risk that comes with throwing 100+ MPH. He's currently -175 at most books. Baldwin, meanwhile, has a .805 OPS at a premium position. If the Braves make a run, Baldwin's odds could rise significantly.
Kyle Stowers (MIA) +540, FanDuel
Stowers started the season showing a lot of power before cooling off in June with just 3 home runs, but he's already hit 3 HRs in July and has 5 over his last 9 games. All 16 of his home runs this season have come against right-handed pitchers, and he faces RHP Brandon Woodruff today. Woodruff is making his first start in nearly two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery. While he's elite when healthy, it's reasonable to expect some rust as he returns to MLB action—especially against a red-hot bat like Stowers'. We set Stowers' line at +450 to homer.
Pete Alonso (NYM) +450, FanDuel
Alonso crushed two home runs against the Yankees yesterday and now faces one of the league's top pitchers in Max Fried. Despite the tough matchup, Alonso has solid career numbers against Fried and has thrived in day games this season, hitting .323 with a 1.037 OPS in 34 such games. Fried doesn't give up many home runs, but he did allow two in his last start, and today's Home Run Index is a perfect 10 out of 10. We set Alonso's line at +290 to homer.
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) +550, BetMGM
Witt enters today's game on a 9-game hitting streak, including 4 multi-hit games, though he hasn't shown much power this season with just 11 home runs. After back-to-back 30-HR seasons in 2023 and 2024, we expect some positive regression in the power department. He faces Anthony DeSclafani, a pitcher who has bounced between the majors and minors and has been prone to giving up home runs. We set Witt's line at +385 to go deep.
James Wood (WAS) +375, BetMGM
Red Sox SP Walker Buehler has allowed at least one home run in each of his last 7 starts—10 total in that span. He's especially struggled against left-handed batters, who are hitting .329 against him this season. Wood has a .979 OPS and 15 home runs against right-handed pitchers this year. With the Home Run Index at a perfect 10 out of 10, this is a strong matchup based on both batter and pitcher splits. We set the line at +350 for Wood to homer.
Ketel Marte (ARI) +525, BetRivers
We're going back to Marte, who's been extremely reliable in HR props this season. Michael Wacha has allowed multiple home runs in 4 of his last 7 starts. While Marte is just 1-5 off Wacha in his career, that's too small a sample to be concerned. Left-handed batters have only hit three home runs off Wacha this season, but they are batting .275 against him. Marte has 15 of his 19 home runs against right-handed pitchers and a 1.072 OPS against them. We set the line at +330 for Marte to homer.
Christian Yelich (MIL) +540, FanDuel
Yelich is swinging a hot bat and facing his former team this weekend—two factors that make this play stand out. He's hit 16 of his 17 home runs this season against right-handed pitchers. While Cal Quantrill is better against lefties than righties despite being a right-handed pitcher, Yelich is seeing the ball so well right now that it may not matter. We also hit on Ketel Marte to homer off Quantrill last week in a similar spot. We set the line at +375 for Yelich to go deep.
Juan Soto (NYM) to Record a Walk -120 (DraftKings)
Soto has walked in 4 out of 6 career plate appearances against Carlos Rodón. Given how hot Soto is swinging the bat right now, Yankees pitchers may pitch around him or even intentionally walk him depending on the game situation. We would set this line closer to -150, so there's solid value at -120.
Rafael Devers (SF) to Record a Walk +125 (Bet365)
This is a value play that the model has hitting in around 70% of simulations. While Devers doesn't have great career numbers against Luis Severino, the Yankees' right-hander is struggling right now and may avoid giving Devers anything good to hit. Strong value at plus money.
Brandon Lowe (TB) to Record an RBI +140 (BetMGM)
Lowe is swinging a hot bat and faces a rookie right-handed pitcher today. He has 46 RBIs in 242 plate appearances against RHPs and has recorded an RBI in 5 of his last 8 games. We would price this closer to -110, so +140 offers excellent value.
Pittsburgh vs. Seattle NRFI -120 (Caesars)
This is our top NRFI (No Run First Inning) play of the day. The key matchup is Michael Burrows vs. Cal Raleigh. The Pirates rank near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories, and the Mariners aren't much better—especially if Raleigh doesn't come up with men on base. If Burrows can retire Raleigh with two outs, this NRFI should cash.
Potgieter is the youngest player on tour, but he's been playing like a seasoned pro the last two weeks. His aggressive style and long drives are a great fit for the John Deere Classic, where distance can be heavily rewarded. Risking 1.6 units to win 1 unit on the under.
Back-to-back weeks picking the winner (+57 units), and we're bringing that momentum to TPC Deere Run.
Michael Thorbjornsen To Win +2700 (Bet365), Top 10 +275 (Bet365)
The 23 year old made a Sunday charge here last year with an 8-under 64, rattling off six birdies in a row to finish T2. He's been knocking on the door of his first PGA Tour win ever since, thanks to elite ball-striking — he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 2nd in Total Driving. Coming off a T4 at the Rocket Classic, Thorbjornsen looks primed to break through this week.
Denny McCarthy To Win +2500 (BetMGM), Top 10 +275 (BetMGM)
Another player hunting his first PGA Tour win, Denny McCarthy is a model of consistency this season, making the cut in all 16 starts and landing in the top 25 in half of them. He's also a TPC Deere Run specialist, posting finishes of T6, T6, and T7 over the past three years. Ranked 9th in Strokes Gained: Putting, McCarthy's elite touch on the greens makes him a top-10 machine and a real threat to finally break through.
Jake Knapp To Win +3500 (Bet365), Top 10 +350 (BetMGM)
Knapp's course-record 61 at the Rocket Classic is enough for me to put money on him this week. He missed the playoff by just one stroke, notching his third top-10 finish of the year. Ranked 8th in Birdie Average and 18th in Scoring Average on Tour, his aggressive game sets up perfectly for the forgiving, birdie-friendly layout at TPC Deere Run.
Juan Soto (NYM) +390, FanDuel
Soto just won June NL Player of the Month and is looking to stay hot against his former team, the New York Yankees. He is 3-10 with a home run in his career against Marcus Stroman, who he knows well from their time as teammates last season. While Stroman was strong in his first start off the IL, he struggled in his rehab outings, and we expect some regression based on his recent seasons. We set the line at +290 for Soto to hit a home run.
Junior Caminero (TB) +360, BetMGM
Caminero's average line is under +300, so you're getting strong value at +360. He has hit 16 of his 21 home runs against right-handed pitchers, so our model almost always finds value when he's facing a righty. Chris Paddack gave up 2 HRs in his last start, and over his last 5 starts, opponents are hitting .317 with a .925 OPS against him. Caminero is also 2-3 in his career against Paddack, which is encouraging. We set the line at +290 for Caminero to homer.
Ronald Acuña (ATL) +450, BetMGM
Acuña has cooled off slightly over the last week after a torrid start to the season, but he's still hitting .344 overall. He's crushed right-handed pitching this year, hitting .382 with 8 of his 9 home runs against righties. Like Soto, Acuña is facing a former teammate in Charlie Morton, who has allowed right-handed batters to hit .294 against him this season. Morton didn't allow any home runs in June, but he gave up 10 in his first 13 starts, so we expect some regression. We set the line at +310 for Acuña to homer tonight.
Cam Smith (HOU) +500, FanDuel
Smith, who played just 32 minor league games before making the Opening Day roster this season, has had to adjust on the fly and has been one of the better hitters in baseball since May. He hit above .300 in both May and June. The model loves Smith today because he is facing a LHP and is in hitter-friendly Coors Field. Smith has a 1.018 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season, and 4 of his 13 hits against lefties have been home runs. Right-handed batters are hitting .340 with a .881 OPS against Kyle Freeland this season. At Coors, batters are hitting .387 with a .998 OPS against him. The splits are in Smith's favor, and we set his line at +475 to homer.
Pete Alonso (NYM) +360, BetRivers
Alonso has only faced José Quintana three times in his career, but he is 1-3 with a home run in those at-bats. Alonso has also played with Quintana as a teammate, so he is plenty familiar with his arsenal. He hasn't homered in 11 games, so he's due. While Alonso has been solid throughout his career against LHPs, he has struggled this season with just a .222 average and 3 home runs against them. Still, we like him in this spot due to his historical success. We set the line at +340 for Alonso to homer.
Rhys Hoskins (MIL) +540, BetRivers
Hoskins has dominated David Peterson in his career, going 7-16 (.438) with 2 home runs and 3 doubles. Peterson enters this game having allowed 10 earned runs over 8.2 innings in his last two starts, so he's not at his best right now. Hoskins has always been strong against left-handed pitchers, with a .890 career OPS against them. Peterson has only given up 6 home runs all season, but 5 of them have come against right-handed batters, who are hitting .256 against him. We set Hoskins' line at +450 to homer.
Nick Kurtz (ATH) +470, FanDuel
Kurtz doesn't have a hit in the first two games of the series, but we like this spot for him today. He's hitting .272 with a .929 OPS vs. RHPs and is facing RHP Ryan Pepiot, who didn't make it out of the second inning in his last start. Pepiot has allowed 12 HRs in 11 home starts this season, but he does neutralize left-handed batters with a great changeup. If Kurtz can get into a fastball count, then he has a strong opportunity to do damage against Pepiot, but he needs to lay off of Pepiot's changeup — the reason why the line is where it's at. We set the line at +380 for Kurtz to homer.
Riley Greene (DET) +400, BetMGM (Game 1)
With yesterday's game being rained out, we are going back to this play. Greene is coming off of back-to-back games with a HR and gets a favorable matchup against Trevor Williams today. He has a .993 OPS with 18 of his 19 HRs against right-handed pitchers, and he's also been better on the road, where he is hitting .318 with 11 HRs in just 39 games. Trevor Williams has been getting hit hard by left-handed hitters all season. Lefties are hitting .373 with a .992 OPS against Williams over a large 16-game sample size this season. We set the line at +350 for Greene to homer today.
Junior Caminero (TB) +390, BetRivers
The model likes Caminero when he is at home and when he faces RHPs, and today he checks both of those boxes. Caminero has 16 of his 21 HRs this season against RHPs, and he is hitting .318 with 14 HRs at home. A's starter Mitch Spence doesn't allow many HRs, but he also doesn't go too deep into games. The A's 5.77 bullpen ERA is the second worst in MLB, and their 47 home runs allowed is tied for the worst of any bullpen. Caminero has seen Spence before and is 1-3 with a single. We set the line at +330 for Caminero to homer.
Riley Greene (DET) +425, BetRivers
Greene is coming off back-to-back games with a home run and gets a favorable matchup against Trevor Williams today. Greene has a .993 OPS with 18 of his 19 home runs against right-handed pitchers, and he has also been better on the road, where he is hitting .318 with 11 HRs in just 39 games. Trevor Williams has been getting hit hard by left-handed hitters all season. Lefties are hitting .373 with a .992 OPS against Williams over a large 16-game sample size this season. We set the line at +350 for Greene to homer today.
Juan Soto (NYM) +390, FanDuel
While the Mets have been struggling as of late, Juan Soto has not. Soto finished June with a .322 average and 11 home runs over 27 games. Brewers' SP Freddy Peralta has been dominant at home (1.76 ERA with 3 HRs allowed in 8 games) but has been just okay on the road (4.02 ERA with 9 HRs in 9 games). Soto gets road Peralta today, which should help. Soto is just 1-10 in his career against Peralta, but that one hit was a HR. We set the line at +345 for Soto.
Byron Buxton (MIN) +460, BetRivers
Buxton continues to rake when he is healthy. He is up to 19 HRs in 67 games this season. In the month of June, Buxton hit 9 HRs in just 24 games. Edward Cabrera is having a strong season for the Marlins, but he is susceptible to giving up the occasional longball. Buxton has seen Cabrera before and has 1 HR in just 2 ABs against him. We set the line at +290 for Buxton to homer today.
There were a flurry of moves in day 1 of free agency. The table to the left has our latest full season projection and the table to the right has our forecast from June 30 early am. Here are notable shifts:
We understand why the Steelers would want to improve their pass coverage. They need to keep the Bengals at bay and they've gone all in at WR. The Ravens have the best WR room in their history. They re-signed DeShon Elliott so it's more important to have a good to great safety and a good to great corner than to have two good to great safeties. Pat Freiermuth is a very good receiving TE still in the prime of his career. They really didn't need a second good receiving TE in Jonnu Smith. It's not like Aaron Rodgers is Tom Brady who once racked up huge stats with Gronk and Hernandez. Rodgers likes having two great WRs, not two TEs, both of whom are not considered great run blockers or pass protectors.
Ramsey's defensive passer rating allowed (depending on the source) went from a stellar 66 to between 90 and 100 last season. He is getting older too. Minkah Fitzpatrick is no longer considered the best safety in the league and his coverage metrics were not great last season, but his tackling was and he is younger (and cheaper) than Ramsey.
If they were able to keep Minkah Fitzpatrick, add Jonnu Smith AND have a healthy, happy, contract extended T.J. Watt then we'd project the Steelers for:
9.8 Wins, 30% chance to win the AFC North, 62% to make the playoffs, 5.5% to win the AFC and 2.5% to win the Super Bowl
But instead we have them exactly where we had them yesterday before these moves:
9 wins, 16% tow in the AFC North, 54% to make the playoffs, 3.8% to win the AFC, 1.5% to win the Super Bowl
While we don't project improvement we still have the Steelers as an excellent value to make the playoffs at +140 (FanDuel, bet365). This implies just a 41.6% chance.
Ben Shelton over Bolt + Lorenzo Musetti over Basilashvilli PARLAY -147 (FanDuel)
The American enters as the No. 10 seed, bringing big power and solid form to his opener. Musetti, seeded No. 7 and fresh off a French Open semifinal run, is a strong favorite against Basilashvili. We're expecting straightforward wins for both, with Musetti likely cruising in straight sets.
Side: Seattle Mariners ML (-160, Caesars) vs. Kansas City Royals
George Kirby's numbers are a bit misleading. If you throw away his first two starts this season when coming back from injury, he has a 3.54 ERA in 5 starts. The Royals are really struggling and come into this game having dropped 7 of their last 8 games. A majority of those losses came at home, and now they're back on the road in Seattle. The Royals have lost 3 of the last 4 games started by Michael Wacha, while the Mariners have won 3 of the last 4 games started by George Kirby. We would set this line at -190 in favor of Seattle.
Total: Mariners vs. Royals First Inning U 0.5 Run (-122, BetRivers)
This is by far our best NRFI (No Run First Inning) of the day by several percentage points. Both Michael Wacha and George Kirby have been strong in the first innings since last season. Wacha has allowed a run in the first inning in just 17% of his starts, while Kirby is around 27%. Get this line at BetRivers while you can because most books have this around -140.
Prop: Cole Young (Seattle) O 0.5 Strikeout (-135, DraftKings)
Young has at least one strikeout in 16 of the 23 games he has played this season (70%). -135 odds imply a 57.4% chance of Young striking out, so we are getting a line well below Young's actual stat output. Young has never been a high strikeout player in the minor leagues, but the major leagues are a whole different level of competition. Young is just 21 years old and will be facing Michael Wacha, who turns 34 years old tomorrow. Wacha is not a high strikeout pitcher, but he is coming off a 9-strikeout appearance and has the experience advantage in this matchup.
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) +420, FanDuel
Reds' rookie was unhittable in his first few innings before surrendering a home run to Ben Rice and two more runs in the 4th inning. Burns has elite stuff, but major league hitters will make him pay if he misses his locations. Abreu has all 14 of his home runs this season against right-handed pitchers. He has been struggling a bit after a hot start to the season, but he had a HR and a double in his last start on Saturday. We set the line at +360 for Abreu to homer today.
Ketel Marte (ARI) +600, BetMGM
We don't have as much value on Marte as we have had the past few days, but why not go back to the player that has been so good to us in HR props. Marte hit his 17th HR in just 57 games when he went deep yesterday. Fourteen of those 17 home runs have been against right-handed pitchers. In 25 June games, Marte has hit 9 home runs. Logan Webb has been very good against Marte in his career, limiting him to just a .208 batting average, but Webb is allowing lefties to hit .261 against him this season and Marte is seeing the ball incredibly well right now. We set the line at +420 for Marte to homer.
Josh Jung (TEX) +600, BetMGM
This is more of a longshot play, but we are betting on Jung's career splits being strong against left-handed pitchers. Jung has an .840 career OPS against left-handed pitching, and while he's struggled this season, he has recorded a hit in 4 out of his past 5 games including a HR. Trevor Rogers was incredibly inconsistent last season and has spent a majority of this season in the minor leagues. In his 3 MLB starts this season, Rogers has looked very good, but we expect some regression, especially considering he had a 5.51 ERA in the minor leagues before getting called up. We set the line at +575 for Jung to homer.
DeAndre Ayton's stat line looks very good offensively - 15 pts, 57% FG%, 10.5 Boards in two seasons in Portland. But his 55 and 40 GPs and less than 1 block per game look bad. And if you look at how the team performs defensively with and without him in the lineup it's striking... their defensive FG% is VASTLY improved without Ayton.
Over the past 2 seasons the Blazers played 95 games with Ayton and allowed opponents to shoot 57.5% from 2pt range (while shooting 51.3% themselves) and they lost these games by an average of 7.3 points. In 69 games without Ayton they only lost by 4.2 pts per game, shot nearly the same % from 2pt range (50.6%) but most importantly allowed just 54.2% 2pt shooting.
The model still sees Ayton as someone worth over 2 wins to Portland, but the actual results indicate they could be better without him as they won 37.7% of games without him vs just 32.6% with him. Donovan Clingan's defensive impact was massive even as a rookie. When he played 25+ minutes (21 games) held opponents to just 50.9% 2pt shooting vs 55.7% when he did not play major minutes. Portand won 57% of these 21 games and had a +2.3 pt differential.
If they get any production from Robert Williams, who basically is always hurt, but if he can stay healthy is a phenomenal defensive player and shocking first round draft pick Hansen Yang then Portland is a legit playoff contender.
The other key player who Portland moved recently is Anfernee Simons, who also negatively impacted the team's defense. The team is definitely moving in the 'defense wins championships' direction that HC Chauncey Billups believes in and displayed leading the Pistons to a championship.
With 45 eagles and a new course record, the 2025 Rocket Classic has had plenty of fireworks, but we're not done yet. Here are some of our favorite plays heading into the weekend.
Taft: Aldrich Potgieter To Win +2200 (Bet 365), Top 10 +175 (Bet 365)
The 20-year-old South African is the longest player on Tour and ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Total for the tournament. His 10-under 62 gave him a share of the lead after Thursday, and he has the power and grit to stay at the top of the leaderboard this weekend.
Jake: Ben Griffin To Win +1200 (Bet 365), Top 10 -105 (Bet 365)
Ben Griffin already has 2 wins and 8 top 10s on the PGA Tour this year, and he's in prime position this weekend at Detroit Golf Club.
Despite Jayson Tatum's injury the model still had Boston potentially winning 57+ games if they decided to run it back with Jrue Holiday and Krystaps Porzingis (minus his horrific illness that plagued him for 3 months). But everyone knew that team could still win the East but probably would not be able to compete with the Thunder or whoever was able to beat the Thunder.
Interestingly moving Porzingis didn't really move the needle. Two seasons ago when Boston traded "team leader" Marcus Smart and acquired Porzingis we made Boston the favorite to win the title because Porzingis' shot blocking made up for whatever was lost in perimeter defense without Smart (especially when they acquired Jrue Holiday). But Porzingis ~40% 3pt shooting on 5+ attempts per game was a huge upgrade over Smart's 32% on the same 5 attempts. Throw in 8 rebounds by Porzingis and it was a major upgrade for Boston.
But based on the past season and Porzingis' strange illness that resulted in the single greatest 12 month drop-off in impact in recent memory his departure in Boston didn't hurt them measurably vs the dropoff they showed after the Holiday for Simons trade. He looked like a shell of himself vs the Knicks.
But he is a big value add to Atlanta who improved much more than Boston dropped off. If Porzingis goes back to his '23-24 form he could take them from being a -1% 2pt differential team to a +1% team, a -2 3pt differential team to a breakeven 3pt differential team and a breakeven rebounding team to a +1.5 rebounding differential team.
Nick Kurtz (ATH) +420, BetRivers
Kurtz hit his 7th home run in 13 games when he went deep vs. the Yankees yesterday. He's swinging a strong bat and gets a favorable matchup today. Yankees' SP Marcus Stroman is making his first start in over two months and wasn't particularly effective before suffering his injury. Stroman allowed 12 ERs in just 9.1 IP to start the season. He also wasn't particularly effective in his rehab outings, allowing 13 hits and 8 ERs in 10.1 IP. The weather is hitter-friendly and Kurtz rakes against right-handed pitching. We set his line at +340 to homer.
Junior Caminero (TB) +450, BetRivers
Caminero has 4 ABs against Dean Kremer and is 3-4 with a walk as well. This is a strong matchup for Caminero, who is hitting .274 with 16 of his 20 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season. Kremer has allowed just 2 HRs in his last 7 starts, but we expect some regression to kick in, especially with the home run index at a 10. We set Caminero's line at +300 to hit a homer.
Ketel Marte (ARI) +500, BetRivers
We continue to believe that Marte's home run line is mispriced. Unfortunately, we weren't on him yesterday when he hit a home run, but we like him today given his +500 line. Marte is 3-11 with a HR in his career against Cal Quantrill. Over the last month, Marte has 8 home runs in just 24 games played. Despite being a right-handed pitcher, Quantrill is good against left-handed batters but has been getting destroyed against right-handed batters, who are hitting .368 with a 1.059 OPS against him. Marte is 0-5 in his career in right-on-right matchups, but perhaps he decides to bat righty against Quantrill given those splits. We set the line at +323 for Marte to homer.
Rolling into Detroit with momentum after cashing Keegan Bradley at +3500 — Captain America delivered. So who's next? Here are three guys we're riding this week.
Rickie Fowler To Win +5000 (FanDuel), Top 5 +1000 (Bet365)
Why not ride a past champ again? That was the play with Bradley last week — and Rickie Fowler is quietly rounding into form. After narrowly missing a U.S. Open spot in a playoff, he bounced back with a 64–67 weekend at the Travelers. He ranks among the Tour's best in total driving which is one of the reasons why his game shapes up well for Detroit Golf Club. A return to Detroit might be just what the 2023 Rocket Classic champion needs to reclaim those major exemptions.
Luke Clanton To Win +4000 (FanDuel), Top 10 +400 (Caesars)
Luke Clanton finished T10 here last year — as an AMATEUR. Now with a Tour card, this will be his first time playing the same PGA Tour event for a second time. Add in a strong weekend at the Travelers with rounds of 68-70, and Clanton's poised to be in the mix on Sunday.
Cam Champ To Win +12500 (BetMGM), Top 20 +400 (BetMGM)
Cam Champ's elite length makes him built for Detroit Golf Club, with its wide fairways and minimal rough. While he's spent most of the year on the Korn Ferry Tour, Champ still led the PGA Tour in driving distance in 2024 — just as he did in 2022 and 2019. He came off the alternate list in his last PGA Tour start at the RBC Canadian Open and finished T9 with three rounds in the 60s. Don't sleep on his upside in a field like this.
Riley Greene (DET) +425, BetMGM
Twins' SP Bailey Ober has been struggling heading into this game. Over his last 4 starts, Ober has allowed 10 home runs. Batters have a .946 OPS against Ober in the month of June. Riley Greene has 16 of his 17 home runs this season against RHPs, against whom he is batting .317 with a .966 OPS. Greene is just 3-13 in his career against Ober, but given Greene's hot hitting against righties and Ober's recent struggles, we believe he is due. We set the line at +375 for Greene to homer.
Colton Cowser (BAL) +400, BetRivers
Cowser has seen the ball well against Zach Eflin. Cowser is 4-11 with 2 HRs in his career against Eflin. Getting +400 here is strong value considering the average line for Cowser to hit a HR is +328. Cowser is swinging a hot bat. Over the last 10 games, Cowser has 3 home runs and a 1.099 OPS. He's also a strong play against RHPs, against whom he has a .270 average and .974 OPS compared to just a .150 average and .411 OPS against lefties. We set the line at +400 so there's fair value here, but this is worth a play considering the Home Run Index at a 10 out of 10 and Cowser's success against Eflin.
Francisco Lindor (NYM) +390, FanDuel
Lindor is 3-10 against Falter in his career, but he does have 5 walks to 1 strikeout against Falter and has reached base in 8 out of 15 plate appearances against him. This indicates that he sees the ball well out of Falter's hand. Lindor has been better against RHPs this season, but his career numbers are slightly better against lefties than righties. Falter has allowed 7 of his 9 home runs this season against right-handed batters. We set the line at +330 for Lindor to homer.
Nick Kurtz (ATH) +500, FanDuel
Kurtz has been swinging a hot bat. Over his last 10 games, Kurtz has hit 5 home runs. This type of run is not out of the ordinary for Kurtz, who hit 11 home runs in a 7-game span at Wake Forest last season. The reason you can get +500 odds is the weather is supposed to be pitcher-friendly (3 out of 10 on the home run index), but Kurtz is a left-handed batter that gets to work with the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium. Warren hasn't given up many home runs, but left-handed batters are hitting .273 against Warren and have hit 5 of the 6 home runs that he has allowed on the year. We set the line at +415 for Kurtz to homer.
Juan Soto (NYM) +450, FanDuel
After batting just .219 with a .801 OPS in May, Juan Soto is batting .325 with a 1.223 OPS over a large 24-game sample size in June. Soto has 10 homers in those 24 June games, including 5 over his last 6 games. Soto doesn't have a home run against Mitch Keller, but he is 4-10 with 2 walks in his career against him, indicating he sees the ball well when Keller is pitching. We set the line at +380 for Soto to homer.
Ketel Marte (ARI) +525, BetMGM
Marte's home run line is all over the place. You can get +525 on BetMGM, but it's as low as +320 on DK and +340 on Caesars. Marte just snapped a streak of 5 straight multi-hit games in his last start. He had 3 home runs in those 5 starts. Marte is hitting .343 with 12 of his 15 HRs against RHPs. He has also been scorching hot in June, hitting .365 with 7 home runs in just 22 games. Marlins' SP Eury Perez hasn't given up a home run in his three starts this season after missing all of last season recovering from Tommy John Surgery. Perez did allow 1.5 HR/9 in 2023 before he got hurt, so we expect some regression going forward. He likely won't go too deep in this game, so expect Marte to see several bullpen arms. The Marlins' bullpen ranks towards the bottom of the league in ERA and home runs allowed. We set Marte's line at +300 to homer.
Luke Clanton (PGA) U 68.5 Strokes
26 Golfers are at 4-under (68) or better so far today. Clanton just turned pro, but he has put together some solid rounds as of late and finished 34th last week at the travelers.
Andreas Obst (Bundesliga Basketball League) U 2.5 3PM
Obst was great in the first game of the German basketball championship series, but he has three straight games with less than 3 threes since Game 1 when he had 5. Ulm has made it a focus to guard Obst when he touches the ball behind the arc.
A'ja Wilson (WNBA) O 0.5 Pt
Just needs 1 points as its a free square.
There isn't a single Ravens fan who didn't think if they played the Bills at home in the playoffs that they wouldn't have won the game. The re-match in Week 1 on Sunday Night has massive playoff implications. The Bills have a much less competitive division and plays all of their toughest non-division games at home (BAL, KC, CIN, TB, PHI) which is why despite being lower than the Ravens in our power ranking we give Buffalo a 60 to 22% edge in getting home field advantage as the AFC One Seed. The combination of a first round bye and home field advantage makes them a very good value to win the Super Bowl (+700, 12.8% at FanDuel).
The Bills are -1.5 favorites and are winning 57% of the simulations vs Baltimore. If they win (as expected) they nearly lock up the one seed (over 70%) after just one week and their chances of winning the Super Bowl jump to nearly 22%.
However, Baltimore is out for 'vengeance' and has significantly upgraded the secondary. It won't be cold in Buffalo in Week 1 and Mark Andrews presumably will be able to catch a short pass and not fumble. The Ravens committed 3 turnovers (Buffalo 0) and in the model they are averaging 1.6 per sim vs just 0.7 for Buffalo. If the Ravens do not commit more turnovers than Buffalo they would be the model's favorite.
If the Ravens win Week 1 their Super Bowl chances jump to nearly 21%.
The Ravens wouldn't be a lock to get the one seed like Buffalo would be if they win. Last year Baltimore crushed Buffalo in the regular season but Buffalo still got the better playoff seed.
While we may only have the Rockets improving by roughly 2 wins, it's a huge 2 wins when you consider 2 games was the difference between finishing 3rd in the West and 8th in the West in 2024-2025. Kevin Durant's superior offensive efficiency (he was worth 10 pts on the spread for Phoenix when he played vs when he didn't) and still respectable ability to load up the stat sheet gives Houston exactly what they were looking for.
The Suns are looking to rebuild and probably will tank and do even worse than the 8 win drop we have them projected for in 2025-2026.
DraftKings has the Rockets at +750 to win the Championship and ESPN has them at +800. These imply around an 11% chance so our 4.2% chance is nowhere near good value. Perhaps if Kevin Durant was still an 8 rebound (not 6), and 3 STL+BLK (not 2) player who could dominate defensively like he did 10 years ago then we would have them at closer to 10%. A young KD with Amen Thompson defending opposing wings would be terrifying for opposing teams.
Rushing and Rising TE/WR Makes Murray the Much Better Value
We would not only take Murray in the 8th or 9th over Mahomes in the 4th to 5th, we would take Murray straight up based on the projection. Now we would never draft Murray in the first 6 rounds because you do not need to. Mahomes is a great scrambler but usually wait until the playoffs to really start running wild. Murray's schedule includes a weaker average run defense (19th in yards per carry) than Mahomes' opposition (16th in ypc allowed). Kyler also has more opportunities to play from behind. Arizona is favored in just 8 of their games and he should be in position to get big chunk plays (passing and running) vs prevent defenses when they are down 10+ in the 2nd half. Mahomes and the Chiefs are favored in 13 of their games and are far more likely to be playing conservatively in the 2nd halves of games. We also like that Murray's top targets are rising, young players like TE Trey McBride and WR Marvin Harrison Jr. with upside (McBride start getting TDs, Harrison across the board) vs last season as opposed to Mahomes who has an aging (declining) Travis Kelce.
Kyler Murray Best Future Bet: Over 475 Rushing Yards -110 DraftKings
This pick is 100% correlated to staying healthy. When he has played 16+ games he has had 544, 819, and 572 yards, when he played under that he had 423, 418 and 244. It is encouraging that he had his highest ypc last season (7.3) which shows he is as explosive a runner as ever. He and the coaching staff know it's better for Kyler to be a major running threat and play like "good Kyler" for another 3 or 4 years than it is to stop running, have you height limit your vision, and be like old Russell Wilson and kind of suck for 6 to 8 more years.
Patrick Mahomes Best Future Bet: Over 27.5 Passing Touchdowns -110 DraftKings
The Chiefs had so much success winning close games the last few seasons with a vastly improved defense that htey got used to waiting until final drives before Mahomes would play like Mahomes 2018-2022. This formula was totally broken by the Eagles in the Super Bowl. While Travis Kelce is trending down, Mahomes has chain moving WR, Rashee Rice, back to help the team get in the Red Zone more and in the RZ, TE2 Noah Gray had 5 TDs (Kelce just 2 in '24). While the Chiefs are favored in 13 of 17 games they are only favored (7+ pts) in 4 of the games. Expect more shootouts vs improved offenses in their own division and Mahomes will need to put on the Superman Cape at the start of games and not just in late game situations.
