Top 10 Early NFL Bets for 2025
Week 1 Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 (-115 FanDuel)
Our model projects a seven-point victory for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1, giving them a 63% chance of covering the -2.5 spread. Tampa Bay has consistently performed better on the road than at home over the past two seasons. In 2023, they averaged four more points per game on the road, and in 2024, they maintained a three-point road advantage. Their defense has also been remarkably consistent, allowing the same number of points regardless of venue. Last season, the Bucs posted a +5.4 point differential on the road, which improved to a phenomenal +8.2. Their run defense has been especially good, holding opponents to just 3.7 yards per carry in 2024 and 3.8 in 2023. Notably, they limited Falcons star Bijan Robinson to just 63 and 61 rushing yards in their two meetings last season — with 63 being his career high against Tampa Bay.
Top Win Total Wager: San Francisco 49ers Under 10.5 Wins (-115 FanDuel)
While the 49ers are undeniably a Super Bowl-caliber team when fully healthy, our model projects them to finish with just 9.2 wins this season. This projection is largely due to the strength of their division, where rivals like Seattle are expected to exceed their own win totals. The 49ers' success hinges on the health of several key players, many of whom are aging or have a history of injuries. Left tackle Trent Williams is nearing 37 years old. Tight end George Kittle, who turns 32 in October, has never played a full 17-game season. Running back Christian McCaffrey missed most of 2024 and was a shadow of his former self when he did play. Quarterback Brock Purdy is not the type of player who can carry a depleted roster — his passer rating dropped 17 points when the team was banged up, and the 49ers won just six games with him under center last year. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk missed 10 games. Even backup running back Isaac Guerendo, who has flashed potential, has durability concerns dating back to college.
If the 49ers stay healthy, they could win 13 games. But our model estimates only a 25% chance of that happening. With even one or two key injuries, their ceiling drops to 11 wins or fewer — making the under a strong play.
Value Pick to Win Division: Los Angeles Chargers +310
The Kansas City Chiefs remain the favorite to win the AFC West, but the Los Angeles Chargers offer the best value. Our simulations give the Chargers a 34% chance to win the division, compared to just 24% implied by their +310 odds.
This is a regular season bet, and the Chargers are built to succeed over 17 games. Despite a disappointing playoff loss to Houston, there are plenty of reasons to believe this team is on the rise. Quarterback Justin Herbert started slowly under new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, averaging just 163 passing yards and 25 attempts per game over the first five weeks. However, he finished the season strong, averaging 255 yards and 32 attempts per game, along with 2.25 passing touchdowns over his final four regular season games. He's poised to return to his 3,800-yard, 30-touchdown form.
After a slow-ish start, Ladd McConkey averaged nearly six receptions, 88 yards, and half a touchdown per game down the stretch. The Chargers' backfield is also in great shape with Najee Harris and first-round pick Omarion Hampton, both of whom are younger and healthier than last year's injury-prone duo of Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins.
Value Pick to Miss Playoffs: Cincinnati Bengals +130
The Bengals are being priced as a playoff contender, but our model suggests otherwise. Cincinnati misses the playoffs in 57% of simulations, which would imply odds closer to -130 — not the +130 currently available.
The team has several red flags. Their defense remains a concern, and now star pass rusher Trey Hendrickson may hold out. First-round pick Shemar Stewart still hasn't signed. Offensively, they retained Tee Higgins, but that move doesn't address their core issues. The AFC is stacked, and it's hard to see which 2024 playoff team the Bengals are likely to leapfrog. The Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills are near locks to make the postseason. The Texans are favored to win the AFC South again, and both the Chargers and Broncos are ascending teams with strong point differentials. Even the Steelers look improved with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and D.K. Metcalf replacing George Pickens.
Cincinnati also plays in the toughest division in football (AFC North) and plays the other toughest division, the NFC North. Toss in the fact that many of their "weaker" opponents from last season — including the Jaguars, Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins — are expected to be significantly better in 2025, and you have a real uphill climb for an non-playoff team last season to make it this season.
Best Bet to Win Conference: Buffalo Bills +350 to +375
The Buffalo Bills are being undervalued in the AFC Championship market. While the odds imply a 22% chance of winning the conference, our model gives them a 37% probability — a massive edge.
Buffalo has a 60% chance of securing the No. 1 seed, thanks to a relatively soft division and a favorable schedule that includes home games against the Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals, Eagles, and Buccaneers. The first-round bye is a huge advantage in the playoffs. Even a seven-point favorite in the Wild Card round only wins about 75% of the time — but a bye guarantees 100%. Home-field advantage in Buffalo, especially in January, is another major factor that boosts their chances.
Pick to Win Super Bowl: Baltimore Ravens +700
This bet is paired with Buffalo to win it all for a reason — if either team wins, you're up still up +500. The Ravens and Bills combine for a 37% chance to win the Super Bowl, according to our model, while their odds imply just 16.6% each.
Baltimore enters the season with a revamped secondary. Their biggest weakness last year was poor safety play by veterans Marcus Williams and Eddie Jackson the first two+ months of the season. But that's been addressed with the addition of rookie Malakhi Starks and the move of Kyle Hamilton to free safety. They also added former All-Pro corner Jaire Alexander and top free agent from last season, Chidobe Awuzie to replace Brandon Stephens. Offensively, Lamar Jackson now has DeAndre Hopkins and a fully healthy Keaton Mitchell to work with.
Value Pick to Win Super Bowl: Buffalo Bills +700
Buffalo is also a strong Super Bowl value play. Our model gives them a 20% chance to win it all, compared to just 12.5% implied by their current odds. Even if they lose to Baltimore in Week 1, they remain a great value — and if their odds drift to +1000 or higher from a week 1 loss, they become an even stronger buy, assuming no major injuries.
Top Player Stat Future: Brian Thomas Jr. Over 6.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-110)
Brian Thomas Jr. is poised for a breakout season, and our projections suggest he could hit the over on 6.5 receiving touchdowns before November. Even if Travis Hunter commands 25% of team receptions — the same share BTJ had as a rookie — Thomas could still see 30% or more, given the lack of depth at wide receiver and tight end.
Hunter's presence will only make Thomas more efficient. Last season, Thomas accounted for 25% of team receptions, 35% of receiving yards, and a staggering 53% of receiving touchdowns. He's the rare player who can dominate both in volume and efficiency, with the potential to reach 100 receptions while also benefiting from Hunter drawing defensive attention.
With Trevor Lawrence's passing touchdown line set between 21.5 and 22.5, it's hard to imagine Thomas not accounting for at least seven of those scores. If he doesn't, who will? Brenton Strange? Dyami Brown? Parker Washington? Even if Hunter has a strong season, Thomas is the clear red zone threat and should easily surpass this total.
Best Bet for Rookie of the Year: Travis Hunter (+900 to +1000)
Travis Hunter offers tremendous value in the Offensive Rookie of the Year market. While Cam Ward and Ashton Jeanty are the current favorites (+250 to +350 range), Hunter's unique two-way impact gives him a narrative edge that voters won't ignore.
Although the award is technically for offensive performance, Hunter's ability to contribute on defense will influence the voters who won't be able to stop themselves from saying "it's amazing he can put up numbers at WR while also playing defense". If he intercepts Cam Ward in the same game he scores a touchdown, that moment alone could swing the vote. Unlike the Heisman race, where team record wasn't a major factor in his winning, NFL voters will reward him for winning more than the other top candidates. Jacksonville has a 40% chance to make the playoffs — significantly higher than Tennessee or Las Vegas — and if they do, Hunter will be seen as the biggest reason why. All 3 teams were at 4 or 3 wins last season.
Pick to Win MVP: Joe Burrow (+650)
Joe Burrow is in prime position to win MVP this season. Much like Josh Allen last year, Burrow can benefit from the "lifetime achievement" narrative and the perception that he's winning with less talent. Outside of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the Bengals' roster is arguably one of the weakest in the league.
Burrow's MVP case hinges on Cincinnati making the playoffs, which our model gives a 43% chance. If they do, it will almost certainly be because Burrow puts up monster numbers. In 85%+ of those playoff-bound simulations, he wins MVP. This is a one-year window — if he wins it in 2025, the narrative won't be there in future seasons.
