On paper, this week's Thursday Night Football game between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins is a major mismatch. The difference in the teams is so vast, in fact, that even the point spread (the Bills are 12-point favorites) only begins to explain the gulf between the AFC East rivals.
SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and projection model have crunched the numbers on Thursday's game at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., as well as every game for the rest of the season. The simulations say that Josh Allen and Buffalo (2-0) enter Week 3 with a 99.9% chance of reaching the postseason. With a victory over Miami, that number would improve to 100.0%, and with a loss, that figure would drop to just 99.3%.
In addition, the Dolphins (0-2) have a 9.5% chance of reaching the playoffs, according to the ITL team's model. And if they are able to upset the Bills, that number would improve to only 17.6%. (Nine teams can improve their chances more with a Week 3 win than Miami.) And if the Dolphins lose, their postseason prospects would drop slightly to 8.0%.
Translation: Buffalo is so good that even a loss won't significantly diminish its chances of making the playoffs, and Miami is so bad that even a win won't significantly improve its chances of making the playoffs.
| CHANCES OF MAKING THE PLAYOFFS | |||
| TEAM | CURRENT | AFTER WIN | AFTER LOSS |
| Arizona Cardinals | 37.9% | 50.4% | 28.8% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 20.9% | 25.7% | 13.0% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 95.0% | 96.0% | 88.7% |
| Buffalo Bills | 99.9% | 100.0% | 99.3% |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Chicago Bears | 2.5% | 4.3% | 1.2% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 49.6% | 60.2% | 42.6% |
| Cleveland Browns | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 25.1% | 31.3% | 15.6% |
| Denver Broncos | 65.8% | 75.5% | 55.4% |
| Detroit Lions | 64.3% | 72.8% | 58.2% |
| Green Bay Packers | 96.9% | 97.8% | 89.7% |
| Houston Texans | 27.3% | 36.3% | 17.5% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 79.2% | 83.3% | 66.6% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 30.6% | 39.4% | 19.6% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 56.3% | 60.2% | 44.4% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 17.5% | 26.2% | 14.4% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 87.6% | 90.8% | 77.6% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 60.6% | 73.3% | 53.6% |
| Miami Dolphins | 9.5% | 17.6% | 8.0% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 42.2% | 47.4% | 31.7% |
| New England Patriots | 14.7% | 24.4% | 8.7% |
| New Orleans Saints | 10.6% | 16.9% | 6.6% |
| New York Giants | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| New York Jets | 7.8% | 12.8% | 5.9% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 92.1% | 93.0% | 82.5% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 52.5% | 60.7% | 37.3% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 76.5% | 81.7% | 62.5% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 30.5% | 36.0% | 20.0% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 90.9% | 91.8% | 83.3% |
| Tennessee Titans | 5.5% | 9.2% | 2.8% |
| Washington Commanders | 47.6% | 51.2% | 34.1% |
The Bills are, unsurprisingly, rated highly by the Inside the Lines team. Buffalo, which already owns a key victory over AFC contender Baltimore, enters Week 3 at No. 1 in the model's power rankings. Once the model also factors in the Bills' strength of schedule for the rest of the season (second-easiest in the league, at 45.0%), Buffalo wins the Super Bowl in 26.2% of simulations. That's significantly more than the team with the next-best percentage, the Packers (17.3%). That also means the +650 price being offered on the Bills to win the Super Bowl (a 13.3% implied probability) represents significant value.
On the other hand, the Inside the Lines team is not a fan of the Dolphins. Miami ranks 26th in the model's power rankings. The model also says that the Dolphins finish with just 6.4 wins this season; just six teams in the league are projected to finish with fewer.
But Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen, who is 13-2 in his career against the Dolphins while accounting for 45 touchdowns, is not overlooking Miami.
"They're playing a lot better than maybe what their record shows," Allen said on Tuesday. "Their front over there is filled with a lot of guys that can get after the quarterback."
