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Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills in Week 11: Game preview, picks and best bets
Sportsbooks are making Patrick Mahomes an underdog for the second time this season. He has an insane record as an underdog.
| WHO | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills |
| WHEN | Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | Highmark Stadium | Orchard Park, N.Y. |
| TV | CBS |
The Chiefs remain the last undefeated team in the NFL, at 9-0, despite back-to-back close calls against the Bucs in overtime and the Broncos. Now, the 8-2 Bills get Kansas City in their stadium, and the best sportsbooks are making Buffalo a 1.5- or 2.5-point favorite, with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs around a +115 underdog on the money line. The over/under is 46.5.
This is just the fourth time in the Super Bowl era that a 9-0 or better team is an underdog.
Odds movement on the point spread early in the week moved Buffalo from about -1 to the current line. Note: Limits for professional bettors are lower early in the week compared to the increased limits going into the weekend. The total has come down through the key number of 47 from the lookahead line last week.
Let’s preview this pivotal AFC rivalry from a handicapping perspective, including the key injuries to monitor, matchups, reasons why one might bet either side of the spread and a best bet.
Key injuries to monitor
Both teams have found success this season despite being heavily impacted by injuries. Here’s an injury update for Week 11.
Chiefs injuries
Kansas City running back Isiah Pacheco (broken fibula) has been designated to return from injured reserve by the Chiefs. That does not necessarily mean he’ll be activated this week, but practice reports bear monitoring now. He has a 21-day practice window and could be added back to the active roster at any time during that window.
Defensive end Charles Omenihu, who had seven sacks for Kansas City last year before tearing his ACL in the AFC Championship Game, also had his 21-day practice window opened for a potential activation from injured reserve.
WR Juju Smith Schuster (hamstring) did not return to practice last week.
Offensive tackle Wanya Morris hurt his knee early in the second quarter against Denver on Sunday but returned for the Chiefs’ final drive in the fourth quarter.
Bills injuries
Standout rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman (wrist) has already been ruled out this week, but he’s not the only pass catcher in danger of missing the game. Tight end Dalton Kincaid (knee) went down against the Colts, tried to come back later in the game and could not continue. Receiver Amari Cooper is also dealing with a wrist injury and did not play against Indianapolis.
On the other hand, star linebacker Matt Milano (biceps) had his 21-day practice window opened, making a potential return from injured reserve possible this week. That would essentially get a strong Buffalo defense back to full health.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs spread | +1.5 (-105) | +2.5 (-112) | +2.5 (-115) |
| Bills spread | -1.5 (-115) | -2.5 (-108) | -2.5 (-105) |
| Chiefs money line | +116 | +110 | +115 |
| Bills money line | -136 | -130 | -135 |
| Over | Over 46.5 (-105) | Over 46 (-110) | Over 46(-110) |
| Under | Under 46.5 (-115) | Under 46 (-110) | Under 46 (-110) |
Why the Chiefs can cover
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are almost enough of a reason to bet Kansas City to cover 2.5 points. Mahomes is 12-3 straight up and 13-1-1 against the spread in his career as an underdog. That includes a win at San Francisco this season. The rest of the NFL since 2000 wins games as an underdog about 32% of the time.
In this matchup, the Chiefs defense is catching the Bills offense at an opportune time. The cluster of injuries to the Buffalo pass catchers led to Mack Hollins leading the team in receiving at Indianapolis last week. The injuries are likely going to be a bigger problem against the Chiefs than they were against a struggling Colts defense.
The injured wide receivers in recent weeks have begun to show in some of quarterbacks Josh Allen’s metrics. Over the past four weeks, he has a negative completion percentage over expected. If Kincaid misses this week, too, that will only make things tougher for Allen in a big step up in class compared to several bottom-half-of-the-league opponents over the past five games.
With health issues in the pass game, that plays right into the strength of the Kansas City defense. That is if Buffalo wants to run the ball even more than it already has been (53.3% pass play percentage, No. 22 in the NFL). The Chiefs are allowing -0.175 rushing EPA per play, ranked No. 4 in the league. This defensive unit’s rushing success rate allowed is 33.7%, top three in the NFL.
When Mahomes has the ball, he continues to operate a patient offense and take what defenses give him. That has led to success rate rankings of No. 2 overall, No. 4 by dropback and No. 2 in rushing success rate.
Buffalo’s defense has benefitted from some positive turnover variance (No. 1 in the NFL in turnover margin, at +13). It ranks only 20th in dropback success rate, allowing a successful passing play 47.2% of the time. The EPA per play numbers look strong on the surface sitting top 10 overall, allowing -0.049 EPA on each snap. However, if you exclude plays with turnovers, the Bills defense drops to No. 17 by overall EPA per play and 22nd by dropback EPA.
This appears to be more of a bend-but-don’t-break defense that is not really slowing down offenses from consistently moving the ball.
With a pressure rate of just 19% (26th in the NFL), Mahomes will have all the time he needs to operate.
Why the Bills can cover
The Chiefs offense is in a rut. There is no denying Kansas City is extremely fortunate to not have already taken a loss (maybe two) over the past two weeks against teams rated as below average in betting market power ratings.
Working backwards, here is Kansas City’s yards per play in recent weeks:
- 4.6 vs. Broncos
- 4.6 vs. Bucs
- 4.9 at Raiders
- 4.8 at 49ers
The Chiefs have slipped to 19th in the NFL in yards per play, with the current league average at 5.4. Last season, Kansas City ranked No. 9. Over the past three games, the Chiefs are averaging just 4.7 YPP, bottom seven in the NFL over that span. Even Carolina has averaged more during these last few weeks.
So while the season-long success rate splits still show a Chiefs offense that is top two in the league, it has slipped to No. 11 by overall success rate and No. 14 by dropback success rate since Week 8.
Here are the drive summaries for each touchdown the Chiefs have scored over the past three games, working backwards:
- 11 plays, 70 yards
- 10 plays, 70 yards
- 15 plays, 78 yards
- 12 plays, 70 yards
- 11 plays, 70 yards
- 8 plays, 38 yards
- 13 plays, 70 yards
- 9 plays, 70 yards
Kansas City even mixed in a 19-play, 87-yard drive against the Raiders that ate up 9:43 of clock and ended in a field goal.
When defenses are playing two split safeties deep, this is what the Chiefs offense has looked like for a season and a half now. If the down-to-down efficiency doesn’t bounce back from the last few weeks, combined with the Bills also running a very slow offense (28th in plays per game), it creates the type of game state that is ripe for higher variance and a wider range of outcomes.
Best bets for Chiefs vs. Bills
Total: Under 46.5 (-110, FanDuel or BetMGM)
The Chiefs have been playing with their food a little bit in recent weeks, and there appear to be some red flags in the context of a Super Bowl threepeat. But for this week, the injuries to Buffalo’s pass catchers make this a far easier assignment for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Kansas City has the personnel to commit more men to the box to blitz or help in the run game and leave its corners one-on-one in coverage if he wants.
Combined with the Chiefs being required to put together long drives to score every week, Under 47 in this game makes sense, especially if Kansas City is content to run the ball more, traditionally where Buffalo has been more vulnerable with strong cover corners in the pass game.
At the time of writing, this has ticked down to 46.5 at most sportsbooks. See if it ticks back up later in the week before swallowing the 46.5. It’s a marquee game of the week and Mahomes vs. Allen. There’s a decent chance a lot of Over money comes in, similar to a primetime game and this gets back to the key number of 47.
Chiefs +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Mahomes is an underdog. He’s covered the spread in 85% of his games as an underdog. If you add the one push, he’s either pushed or covered in just under 93% of those games.