Longshot prop bets for Bills vs. Jets Monday Night Football Week 6

Can Josh Allen find the end zone with his legs? Multiple times?

The winner of the Week 6 Monday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets will take over first place in the AFC East. 

This will be the Jets’ first game since firing head coach Robert Saleh and elevating defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich to the interim head coach position. Ulbrich then promptly demoted offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and named passing game coordinator and QB coach Todd Downing as the team’s new offensive play-caller.

What immediate impact those moves will have on this game will be interesting to watch. The Bills are -2.5 favorites against the spread, but could the Jets be inspired and galvanized enough by these moves to pull off an upset? Since 2000, 39 teams have fired their head coach mid-season, and those teams have won their next game 41% of the time and covered the spread 54% of the time.

Betting on the Jets’ moneyline at +114 odds would not exactly be a longshot bet, but there are other longshots that make for intriguing bets at some of the best online sportsbooks. In this article, three preferred Monday Night Football prop bets will be discussed, with “longshot” in this case being props with odds of +400 or longer, which translates to a 20% probability or lower. 

Breece Hall to score 2+ touchdowns (+750, FanDuel), Breece Hall to score the first TD (+550, FanDuel)

The last time these two teams met on Monday Night Football was Week 1 of last season, which many remember as the night Aaron Rodgers’ long-awaited Jets debut ended after just four snaps. What is not as remembered is that it was also Breece Hall’s return from his season-ending ACL injury the previous season. Hall announced his triumphant return with a 26-yard run on the Jets’ first offensive snap and an 83-yard jaunt on their first play of the second quarter.

If anybody on the Jets is going to have a massive breakout game and help lead the team to another emotional upset victory, there is a good chance it will be Hall. The Bills are dead last in yards per carry allowed (5.2) in 2024. They have also yielded the most receptions (7.2 per game), receiving yards (62.4) and receiving touchdowns (3) to opposing running backs so far this season. Seven different running backs have received at least 10 touches against the Bills this season, and five of them have scored touchdowns.

Also consider the history of Downing as an OC. When he was the OC of the Titans in 2021, they were the most run-heavy team in the league and were third in rushing yards. Granted, they had Derrick Henry in the backfield, so that offensive philosophy made sense. Hall may not be Henry, and he is certainly not the same style of back, but he is still more than capable of filling a similar workhorse role in the Jets’ offense. 

Hall has only scored two touchdowns in a game once in his 29 career games, so this bet certainly qualifies as a longshot. But +750 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook is still a value, especially considering the odds on the same bet at other sportsbooks, like +375 at bet365 and +475 at DraftKings.

Garrett Wilson 100+ receiving yards (+425, BetMGM)

Another recommendation on the Jets, although it’s not necessarily recommended to bet on big games by both Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. But if one prefers to bet on the Jets’ passing game instead, here is another longshot to consider. Wilson just had his first 100-yard game of the season last week on a monstrous 23 targets. It seemed like the Jets finally realized that Wilson should be options 1, 2 and 3 in the passing game, and Rodgers force fed him the ball. That is not something that typically fades away a week later. 

Wilson was expected to have a breakout season with Rodgers throwing him the ball. It’s been a slow start so far, but last week may have been a sign that better things are coming from that duo. Of course, Wilson is unlikely to get 23 targets again, but double digit target seems realistic. That is more than enough for him to have a chance at hitting the century mark. 

Josh Allen to score 2+ rushing touchdowns (+950, FanDuel)

Some quick math: Josh Allen has played 99 career regular season games and has scored two rushing touchdowns 10 times. That’s a 10.1% clip. He has also played five career playoff games and scored two rushing touchdowns in one of those games. Again, that’s a 10% rate. With +950 odds to do it again this week, the implied probability is just 9.52%, which means you are getting some value with those odds. 

The best odds for Allen to score multiple touchdowns at another sportsbook is +800 at DraftKings, and Caesars has this same bet priced as low as +625. That’s another reason to like this bet purely based on the more favorable odds you can get right now at FanDuel.

There are also pure football reasons to like this bet as well. The Jets have the sixth-best pressure rate and the third-best adjusted sack rate in the league this season. While Buffalo has done a good job of protecting Allen, he still could face more pressure than he is used to in this game, which means there will be more situations when he needs to escape the pocket that could turn into scrambles. 

Allen also could be without starting running back James Cook in this game, which would put some more burden on the QB to make plays on the ground, especially in the red zone. Cook has run the ball on 27% of the Bills’ red zone snaps this season. While Ray Davis or Ty Johnson will fill some of that burden, Allen should also fill some of that void. 

The Bills need to win this game, and Allen has a tendency to put up big numbers in those situations. And when Allen goes into superman mode, it often leads to touchdowns.