Longshot prop bets for Bucs vs. Chiefs Monday Night Football in Week 9

Will Chiefs speedster Xavier Worthy break free for an explosive play? Check out those odds and more

In a rematch of Super Bowl LV, the Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) on Monday Night Football this week. The Chiefs are big favorites with a point spread of -9 to -9.5, while the over/under is set at 45.5 total points.

Both teams have suffered several injuries to star players on offense this season. The Chiefs lost wide receivers Rashee Rice and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown to season-ending injuries, while running back Isiah Pacheco has been out since Week 2. The Buccaneers lost wide receiver Chris Godwin and are currently missing Mike Evans as well. 

Those injuries have created opportunities for other players to step up, such as wide receiver Xavier Worthy for the Chiefs and tight end Cade Otton for the Bucs. They have also put more pressure on stars like Travis Kelce to carry more of the burden offensively. 

Could one of those players be primed for a big game under the primetime lights? This article looks at the best longshot prop bets in this Bucs vs. Chiefs matchup. For clarity, “longshot” in this case means any bet with betting odds of +400 or longer, which implies a probability of 20% or lower. 

Cade Otton 90+ receiving yards (+425, Caesars)

With the injuries to Godwin and Evans, Cade Otton has become Baker Mayfield’s best weapon in the passing game. In his last two games, Otton has had the two best games of his career, at least in terms of yardage. He had eight catches for 100 yards two weeks ago and nine for 81 and two touchdowns last week on National Tight Ends Day. Nine catches last week was a career high, as was 100 yards the week before that. 

Otton has a good chance to keep building on those performances this week in a matchup that sets up perfectly for him to have another big game. The Chiefs are heavy favorites, meaning the Buccaneers could be in a negative game script, and they are already the ninth-most pass-heavy team in the league (57.8% of plays). 

The Chiefs have an excellent defense overall, but their biggest weakness has been defending tight ends. They have allowed the most targets (8.7), receptions (7.0), and receiving yards (80.9) per game to the position. Three different tight ends have had games with at least 90 receiving yards against them: Isaiah Likely, Mike Gesicki and George Kittle. Otton could be the next tight end to join that list.

Not only do the Chiefs struggle against tight ends, but they are also excellent at defending the other positions. They are allowing the fewest receiving yards per game (108.6) and per catch (11.0) to opposing wide receivers, and they rank 11th and 15th, respectively, in those categories against running backs. The Buccaneers use their running backs heavily in the passing game, but that could be more difficult this week, which means more of those opportunities could go in Otton’s direction.

Everything lines up for the Bucs’ offense to run through Otton this week, and he is in the midst of the best stretch of his career. He has averaged over 90 receiving yards over the last two weeks, so getting +425 odds at Caesars for him to keep that going is the best longshot bet in this game. Or for an even bolder longshot bet, consider +700 odds at bet365 for Otton to have a 100-yard day.

Xavier Worthy longest reception 40+ yards (+650, bet365)

The Chiefs player who should be benefiting the most from the offensive injuries is rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy, but so far he has failed to capitalize on the opportunity. 

Worthy is known for breaking the NFL combine record in the 40-yard dash with a time of 4.21 seconds. In his first game it looked like that speed might translate to him being a dynamic, game-breaking weapon right away in the Chiefs’ offense. He had two explosive plays in Week 1 – one on the ground and one through the air – but he has only one such play since that dazzling debut.

This could be the week that changes. The Buccaneers’ defense has been vulnerable to explosive plays this season, especially through the air and especially over the last four weeks. In their last four games, the Bucs have allowed 19 explosive passing plays (20+ yards), tied for the most in the league. That is an average of almost five per game, or 11.6% of their opponent’s passing plays. 

If the Chiefs have five explosive passing plays in this game, there is a good chance that at least one of them goes to Worthy. While that could mean a gain of more than 20 yards but less than 40, his otherworldly speed gives him a chance that he could break one for 40-plus.

Kareem Hunt 100+ rushing yards (+525, bet365)

As noted above, the Chiefs are heavy favorites in this game. That means a more pass-heavy game plan for the Bucs, which was part of the argument for Otton to have a big game. It also means it could be a more run-heavy offense for the Chiefs this week, which means the potential for a 100-yard day by Kareem Hunt.

Hunt has been the Chiefs’ workhorse back since re-joining the team prior to Week 4. He is averaging a career-high 21 rushing attempts per game in his four games with Kansas City, and his 77.0 rushing yards per game is his most since his rookie season when he led the league with 1,327 yards (82.9 per game).

The Bucs are stronger against the run (10th in DVOA) than they are against the pass (19th), but they can still be exploited on the ground. They are allowing the third-most yards per carry (5.2) and have allowed three different running backs to go over 80 yards, including a 169-yard outburst by Derrick Henry. Hunt is not Henry, but he is more than capable of putting up some big numbers with enough opportunities. He already has one 100-yard game in four games with the Chiefs. 

There is also some value on the betting odds for this longshot bet. The same bet is priced as low as +340 at FanDuel. Getting significantly higher odds by betting at bet365 makes this even more appealing as a bet with long odds in this game.