Longshot prop bets for Dolphins vs. Rams on Monday Night Football

Will Puka Nacua have a big game after getting ejected last week?

In what likely is the last chance for them to keep alive their season, the Miami Dolphins (2-6) head to SoFi Stadium to take on the peaking Los Angeles Rams (4-4) on Monday Night Football. Los Angeles is a small 1.5-point favorite on the point spread, with Miami is about a +110 underdog to win the game on the money line. With Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (wrist) questionable to play, the over/under has moved from 50.5 down to 48.5. 

Miami also will be missing guard Austin Jackson (knee) on the offensive line, and safety Jevon Holland (knee) was listed as questionable on the final injury report. For the Rams, right tackle Rob Havenstein (ankle) is out and right guard Kevin Dotson (ankle) is questionable. On defense, linebacker Christian Rozeboom (neck) also is questionable, as is safety Kamren Curl (knee). 

In a sense, the biggest player returning from missing time last week is wideout Puka Nacua, who only caught one pass for 11 yards at Seattle before being ejected. He should return to being a primary weapon for Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. 

NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport said Sunday morning that Tyreek HIll is a true game-time decision for Miami on MNF. 

Could that open the door for another Dolphins weapon to have a big game in primetime? Her are three potential longshot prop bets for Monday Night Football. Each has betting odds of +300 or longer, with an implied probability of 25% or less. 

The longshot bets are taken from some of the best sportsbooks in the US.

Puka Nacua 100+ receiving yards and anytime touchdown (+425, BetMGM)

After getting ejected last week, Nacua has a great chance to bounce back against the Dolphins in a high total game. In his first contest back from injury against the Minnesota Vikings two weeks ago, Nacua led the Rams in targets with nine and finished with seven receptions for 109 yards. 

Red-zone targets and targets inside the 10-yard line were evenly split between Nacua and Cooper Kupp last year. So while Nacua doesn’t have a red-zone target in one full game and two others in which he left early, Stafford is more likely to look his way than throw to Demarcus Robinson (six red-zone targets in 2024) moving forward. 

The matchup also is appealing to bet on a boom week for Nacua. Over the past four weeks, the Dolphins dropback success rate allowed is 50.4%, just 24th in the NFL during that span. Miami’s defensive metrics by EPA per play, both overall and by dropback, also are outside the top 20. Factor in that Holland is banged up, as he only logged two limited participation practices this week and is questionable to play. 

De’Von Achane 150+ rushing and receiving yards (+320, FanDuel)

Hill looks legitimately questionable for this game with his wrist injury. He was a midweek addition to the injury report, logging DNPs on Friday and Saturday. He still is listed as questionable, but midweek additions to injury reports typically put players on the wrong side of that tag. At best, he likely will be a game-time decision. 

So why is the pick here for longshot prop bets on Monday Night Football running back De’Von Achane and not wideout Jaylen Waddle? The matchup and nature of the Dolphins’ offense is the answer. 

The Rams’ defense has less than stellar and mostly below-average advanced metrics on the season. In the past four weeks, though, Los Angeles has played extremely well, with EPA per play and success rate metrics ranking in the top five in the NFL on defense, both overall and by dropback on designed passing plays. This coincides with the Rams getting back top cornerback Darious Williams from injured reserve. That could make it tougher for Waddle to have a big game if Hill is limited or out. 

As for the Dolphins’ scheme, no quarterback has a faster snap-to-throw time than Tua Tagovailoa at 2.39 seconds, according to NextGen Stats. It makes sense, as head coach Mike McDaniel likely is trying to protect his QB, who has suffered several scary concussions. Tagovailoa led all quarterbacks in this metric last year at 2.36 seconds. 

How this has manifested on the field in his first two games back from his latest head injury is big volume for Achane as a checkdown option in the passing game. Last week, Achane led the team with eight targets. In Week 8, he also had eight, only one fewer than Hill for the team lead and two more than Waddle. 

Tagovailoa appears to be getting to his checkdown option quickly with Achane if his first read is not there. With Achane’s efficiency as both a runner and receiver, and Hill potentially out, this could be a big volume week for the Dolphins’ explosive backfield weapon. 

Last week, Achane finished with 20 touches for 121 total yards at Buffalo. Against Arizona at home a week earlier, he racked up 147 scrimmage yards on 18 opportunities (rushing attempts + targets). 

If Hill misses this game, it’s very possible Achane plays an increased amount of snaps out wide with fellow running back Raheem Mostert also on the field in 21 or 22 personnel. 

Achane has three career performances of 150+ rushing and receiving yards. 

Raheem Mostert 2+ touchdowns (+1300, Caesars)

The gap in price between Achane to score 2+ touchdowns at +400 and Mostert at +1300 doesn’t make a ton of sense. Mostert still is the preferred option down near the goal line and found the end zone twice just two weeks ago in Tagovailoa’s return from a concussion. 

Do not forget Mostert recorded 18 rushing touchdowns a season ago and added three more through the air. With Hill also dealing with his wrist injury, and McDaniel not using the word “optimistic” like he typically does with players who are on the injury report but expected to play, Achane could be called upon to take on more of a receiving role. 

The Rams’ defense appears to have improved in recent weeks, but it still has a rushing success rate allowed mark of 41.8% on the season, which ranks outside the top 20 in the NFL. Los Angeles also ranks just 17th in rushing EPA per play allowed. 

The Dolphins may be small underdogs, but with the spread under the key number of three in a game with a total of 48.5, the odds projected more situation neutral possessions than a big negative game script for Miami.  

Meta Description: Hill is a true game-time decision. Nacua is back. Who could cash longshot prop bets for Rams vs. Dolphins on Monday Night Football?