Longshot prop bets for Saints vs Broncos: Bo Nix breakout?

Alvin Kamara and Bo Nix could significantly outperform their betting lines in this game.

Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton is returning to the New Orleans Superdome this week for the first time since his highly successful 15-year run as the Saints’ coach came to an end after the 2021 season. Payton’s return to New Orleans is sure to be one of the big storylines of the Thursday Night Football broadcast as his Broncos try to stay afloat in the playoff race.

A few weeks ago, nobody would have expected the Broncos to be 2-point road favorites against the spread in this game. The Saints were 2-0 with two dominant wins and they were soaring up the board in the Super Bowl futures markets. Meanwhile, the Broncos were 0-2 and rookie quarterback Bo Nix was off to a rocky start. Since then, the Broncos have gone 3-1 while the Saints have dropped four straight games and quarterback Derek Carr suffered an oblique injury. 

Rookie Spencer Rattler is expected to make his second straight start this week filling in for Carr. The former Oklahoma and South Carolina QB made a few nice throws last week in his NFL debut, but also threw two interceptions that contributed to the Saints’ blowout loss to the Buccaneers. Star wide receiver Chris Olave also left that game with a concussion and is expected to miss this game. 

In a matchup of two defensive-minded teams with rookie QBs, it’s no surprise that the over/under is set at just 37 points for this game at most of the best online sportsbooks. That might mean limited options for betting the Over on prop bets, but there are still some intriguing bets to be found. This article will discuss three Thursday Night Football longshot bets, with “longshot” being defined as bets with betting odds of +400 or longer. Those odds translate to a 20% implied probability or lower. 

Devaughn Vele 70+ receiving yards (+550, Caesars)

The Broncos do not have much depth at wide receiver behind Courtland Sutton, especially since veteran Josh Reynolds was placed on injured reserve last week. Rookie seventh round pick Devaughn Vele took advantage of that opportunity against the Chargers last week, hauling in four of his six targets for a team-high 78 receiving yards. 

Vele has only been active for two games so far this season, but he has been productive in both of those games. Back in Week 1, he led the Broncos with eight catches (on eight targets) and gained 39 yards, but was a healthy scratch in every game since then until last week. With good production in both of his games so far this season, Vele has a role in the Broncos’ offense as a slot receiver. He is a big-bodied target (6-foot-5, 210 pounds) with good speed (4.47-second 40-yard dash) and reliable hands.

This week’s matchup presents a good opportunity for Vele to have another standout performance as the Saints have struggled against slot receivers. Just last week Chris Godwin torched them for 11 catches, 125 yards and two touchdowns, and he gained 109 of those yards from the slot. The week before that, JuJu Smith-Schuster racked up 130 yards on seven receptions, including 63 yards from the slot. Overall, the Saints are giving up the fourth-most receiving yards per game this season (262.2). 

Of course, this is still a longshot. It will only be Vele’s third career game, and betting on him to gain more than 70 receiving yards in back-to-back games is risky. But his production and the chemistry he has shown with Nix cannot be ignored. As longshot bets go, this is one of the best bets in this game.

Bo Nix 250+ passing yards (+600, DraftKings)

Let’s double down on exploiting the Saints’ vulnerable pass defense. Over their last five games, quarterbacks facing the Saints are averaging 299.6 passing yards. Granted, those quarterbacks have been Dak Prescott (293 yards), Jalen Hurts (311), Kirk Cousins (238), Patrick Mahomes (331), and Baker Mayfield (325). Those are all experienced, veteran quarterbacks who have already had plenty of success in the league. Still, those numbers are hard to ignore. 

Nix has drawn plenty of criticism from Broncos fans, especially after a shaky start to the season with four interceptions and no passing touchdowns in his first two games. However, he has steadily improved as the season has progressed. Over the last two weeks he has completed 63.3% of his passes and tossed four touchdowns compared to just one interception. He still has a ways to go before he proves that he can be the long-term answer under center in Denver, but he has already shown enough to have some confidence in him this week, especially given the matchup.

Nix came close to clearing this number back in Week 2 when he threw for a season-high 246 yards against the Steelers. He may not light up the Saints the way some other quarterbacks have recently, but his recent performance and a favorable matchup provide some optimism that he could have his first career game with 250+ yards. 

There is also some value just from placing this bet at DraftKings with +600 odds, as the same bet is priced at +490 at FanDuel and +440 at Caesars.

Alvin Kamara 75+ receiving yards (+750, bet365)

The third longshot bet for this game focuses on the other side of the matchup. This should be a very busy game for Kamara, partly because Chris Olave (concussion) is unlikely to play and Rashid Shaheed (meniscus) is out. That could translate to even more opportunities for Kamara in the passing game. 

Kamara has seen at least eight targets in three straight games and was a reliable safety blanket for Spencer Rattler last week. Rattler looked to Kamara for checkdowns multiple times when he was under pressure, and he could face even more pressure from the Broncos this week. Denver is third in the league in blitz rate, fourth in pressure rate, and second in sacks. That could be part of the reason that the Broncos have faced the ninth-most targets to opposing running backs this season, which is a trend that is likely to continue for Kamara this week.

Kamara has also been dominating against man coverage this season, and Denver runs the second-highest percentage of man coverage in the league. Kamara is averaging a ridiculous 3.37 yards per route run (YPRR) against man this season, and 2.51 YPRR overall, which is second-best among running backs. If he’s expected to play a bigger role in the passing game because of the wide receiver injuries and the potential pressure facing Rattler, and he maintains that type of efficiency, that could translate to a huge game for Kamara through the air.

It might seem crazy to bet on a running back to have 75+ receiving yards, but it’s not that out of the ordinary for Kamara. He has 20 career games with at least 70 receiving yards, and has at least one such game in every season of his career. He has already come close once this season with 65 yards in Week 2. The odds at bet365 also represent a value, as BetMGM has the odds for 70+ receiving yards set at +575 and DraftKings has the same bet priced at +500, so getting odds up to +750 for just five more yards is much more appealing.

Another option here could also be betting on Kamara’s longest reception to be 30+ yards (+500 at Caesars) or 40+ yards (+1100).