Longshot prop bets for Texans vs. Cowboys Monday Night Football in Week 11

Houston welcomes back WR Nico Collins, while Dallas has a new, sleeper workhorse running back.

Week 11 of the NFL season wraps up with the Houston Texans (6-4) having a golden opportunity on Monday Night Football to bounce back after two straight losses. The reeling Dallas Cowboys (3-6) await at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys will start Cooper Rush again at quarterback with Dak Prescott (hamstring) on injured reserve. Houston is a 7-point favorite on the point spread at FanDuel Sportsbook, with the Cowboys at +300 on the money line to pull the upset. The over/under is 41.5, with a backup quarterback getting the start being a contributing factor. 

The Cowboys will also be without two cornerbacks, DaRon Bland (foot) and Jourdan Lewis (neck). Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb was a surprise addition to the final injury report Saturday with back spasms, but all indications are that he will play.

For the Texans, two starters on the defensive line are out: edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. (ankle) and tackle Foley Fatukasi (foot). Cornerbacks Kamari Lassiter (concussion) and Jeff Okudah (quad) are also listed as questionable on the injury report. 

Could these injuries play a role in some Monday Night Football player prop markets? Here are two potential longshot prop bets for Monday. Each has betting odds of +500 or longer, with an implied probability of 16.7% or less on betting apps. 

Same-game parlay: Rico Dowdle 15+ Rush Attempts and 75+ Rush Yards (+550, bet365)

Dowdle has ceiling outcomes in play this week after coach Mike McCarthy declared no more running back by committee. 

“Definitely, you have to get him the ball,” McCarthy said about Dowdle. “That’s my focus to continue to get him opportunities. He’s the lead back. I thought he had a really good first half [against the Eagles], and I think that’s really illustrated by the attempts. Rico needs to touch the ball.”

The projected negative game script here is the big hurdle with the Cowboys 7-point underdogs, but that’s also priced into this longshot player prop bet. 

If McCarthy is implying Dowdle is now a bell cow back, then Dowdle getting more volume than he already has in the past two weeks is more than reasonable:

• Week 9: 71% snaps, 12 carries, 75 rush yards, five receptions, 32 receiving yards, receiving TD
• Week 10: 52% snaps, 12 carries, 53 yards, three receptions, three receiving yards

The advanced metrics also add optimism to a potential ceiling outcome for Dowdle. In the past two weeks when Dowdle handled 24 of 33 running back touches, the Cowboys have posted a 54.5% success rate on rushing plays, No. 1 in the NFL and 4.5% higher than the next closest offense. 

Success rate measures down-to-down efficiency and consistency. A play is considered successful if the team gains:

• 50% of the necessary yardage on first down 
• 70% of the necessary yardage on second down 
• 100% of the necessary yardage on third and fourth down

Meanwhile, the Texans’ defense is still dealing with those injuries on defense. Most important to a defense’s ability to stop the run is the middle of the defensive line, and tackle Fatukasi is out. Anderson being out doesn’t hurt Dowdle’s chances either.

Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) was a limited participant this week, and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (hip) was a limited participant on Friday. Both will play. 

The Texans are among the most conservative teams in the NFL in rushing players back from injury, too. Last week, receiver Nico Collins was held out one more week in his return from a hamstring injury. So keep an eye on the status of the players they’ve listed as questionable when inactives arrive 90 minutes before kickoff. 

Nico Collins 125+ receiving yards (+550, bet365)

Firstly, the Texans unquestioned alpha at wide receiver seems ready to return from his hamstring injury with no concerns; Collins told reporters Friday he was fully healthy. He was a full participant in practice Friday and does not carry an injury designation into Monday night.

Second, to use an analogy from Houston’s opponent this week, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has eyes for Collins in the way Prescott has eyes for Lamb. These two combine for heavy volume and heavy efficiency. 

These +550 odds imply only a 15.4% chance Collins goes for 125-plus receiving yards. He’s done that in two of five games this season, and he left one of those games early. Collins hit this mark in four of 15 regular season games last year (26.7%). So, in his last 19 healthy regular season games, Collins has finished with 125-plus yards six times (31.2%). 

From Weeks 1-4, Collins was averaging almost 11 targets per game. He only failed to reach 10 targets in one of those four games before leaving Week 5 with the hamstring injury. 

The matchup is pristine as well. If you remove Week 1 when the Cowboys defense rampaged on Deshaun Watson (whom advanced metrics has as a bottom-three quarterback over the past three seasons), Dallas ranks No. 31 by dropback EPA per play allowed. From Week 2 onward, only Jacksonville has been worse. The Cowboys are allowing 0.241 EPA per dropback in this span. The dropback success rate of 49.2% doesn’t rank much better. It is bottom eight in the league since Week 2.