Content on this page may include affiliate links. If you click and sign up/place a wager, we may receive compensation at no cost to you.
Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Rams on MNF: Game preview and best bets
The Rams are favored by just under a field goal on Monday night
The panic button may have been pushed by the Miami Dolphins, who have lost three straight as they head west to take on the Los Angeles Rams and cap off Week 10 of the NFL season on Monday Night Football.
Despite the return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa from a concussion two weeks ago, the Dolphins (2-6) have come up short in back-to-back one-score games. The one positive? Miami has scored 27 points each contest, a number it hadn’t reached once this season prior to Tagovailoa’s return.
The Rams (4-4) surge into this matchup winners of three straight. After a momentum – and possibly season-saving – win two weeks ago, Los Angeles went into Seattle and recorded an overtime win against the NFC West-rival Seahawks. The key has been the returns of wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, giving Matthew Stafford and the offense plenty of weapons.
These two high-powered offenses carry one of the highest totals of the Week 10 slate. The Rams remain slight favorites against the spiraling Dolphins, who have lost six of their last seven. Before digging into the best bet, here are the current odds for Dolphins vs. Rams at some of the best online sportsbooks. These odds are current as of the most recent update of this article but are subject to change.
| MARKET | FANDUEL | DRAFTKINGS | BETMGM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins spread | +2.5 (-106) | +2.5 (-105) | +2.5 (-105) |
| Rams spread | -2.5 (-114) | -2.5 (-115) | -2.5 (-115) |
| Dolphins money line | +120 | +114 | +120 |
| Rams money line | -142 | -135 | -145 |
| Over | Over 48.5 (-115) | Over 49 (-108) | Over 49 (-110) |
| Under | Under 48.5 (-105) | Under 49 (-112) | Under 49 (-110) |
Why bet on the Dolphins
It has not been all sunshine and rainbows for Miami since Tagovailoa has returned under center. The Dolphins have lost back-to-back contests, and their playoff aspirations have all but vanished.
But Tagovailoa’s presence completely changes Miami’s offense. In four games following his injury in Week 2 against the Buffalo Bills, the Dolphins scored a total of 40 points while using three backup quarterbacks. Head coach Mike McDaniel essentially was taking square blocks and trying to fit them into a round hole.
There’s only one perfect fit for Miami’s offense, and it’s Tagovailoa.
The Dolphins finally have the explosiveness they lacked while Tagovailoa worked his way back. Wideout Tyreek Hill (who is questionable to play with a wrist injury) finally can be unleashed, and teams cannot stack the box and stifle a dominant ground attack led by the duo of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane.
If there ever were a matchup Miami could exploit, it’s the one against Los Angeles’ defense. Not only do the Rams rank 22nd in DVOA against the run, but they are 26th in DVOA versus the pass and third-worst against the deep ball.
What does Miami love to do? Establish the ground game to set up its opportunities for deep shots downfield to Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Since Tagovailoa returned, Miami has passed on just 54% of its plays. For what it’s worth, opposing running backs also average 109 yards per game against Los Angeles (4.3 YPC).
For Miami to cover the spread, the offense will need to continue its recent success. But ultimately, it will be necessary for the defense to remain strong.
Why bet on the Rams
It felt like a season quickly collapsing for the Rams just over a month ago. Injuries ruptured the offensive line and Los Angeles owned a 1-4 record before heading into its bye week.
That reset changed things drastically. As the team got healthier, success followed. Three weeks later, the Rams are in the thick of the NFC West race as they sit just one game behind the first-place Arizona Cardinals.
Despite Kupp (four games) and Nacua (five) having missed significant time, Los Angeles’ offense remains among the best in the NFL. Taking that into account, it’s impressive that the Rams rank 12th in offensive DVOA.
They possess a high-powered offense with too many weapons at full health, and Stafford is not afraid to sling the football. The issue, similar to Miami’s, lies with the defense. Filling the giant shoes left by Aaron Donald’s retirement has not been easy, and it has taken time for the team’s younger players to acclimate. Just look at rookie Jared Verse, who has registered 2.5 sacks over the last two weeks and is the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year (-190, FanDuel).
It’s also important to note that Hill is questionable for Monday night’s matchup. The star receiver said he will play “if his body lets him,” according to McDaniel.
Best bet for Dolphins vs. Rams: Tyreek Hill Over 75.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
The NFL landscape would look completely different if the Dolphins won their last two contests, creating value in this matchup. Unfortunately, luck has not been on Miami’s side, as it is four games under .500.
If there ever was a time for McDaniel to pull out every trick he has to ensure a win and rejuvenate his struggling team, it’s now. Given the plethora of explosive playmakers around Tagovailoa and the aforementioned defensive issues that exist for the Rams, expect a big offensive effort from Miami if Hill plays.
Hill’s Over 75.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings) is the player prop to target and best bet for Monday Night Football. He has had at least 72 receiving yards in all three games in which he’s had a fully healthy Tagovailoa throwing to him. And that’s come without a real explosive play in each of the last two weeks.
Look for the Dolphins to pound the ball and take their play-action deep shots through Hill. The offense often has directed its passing plays toward the superstar wideout. He averaged more than 10 targets per game last season, and with a fully healthy team returning, Hill’s numbers should return to the mean.