The Buffalo Bills had a slight scare in Week 4 of the 2025 season against the winless New Orleans Saints but ultimately powered through for a 31-19 win behind reigning league MVP Josh Allen. The quarterback rushed for a score to give Buffalo a 21-10 lead and then threw a touchdown pass to Dalton Kincaid to create a 28-19 lead the Bills would not give up. They are now -225 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the AFC's No. 1 seed and +170 to advance out of the AFC. As Buffalo advances to 4-0, other contenders in the conference are dealing with major issues.
The Baltimore Ravens, who entered the year slightly behind Buffalo in terms of Super Bowl odds, are hit hard by injuries. Seven Baltimore defensive starters are on the mend, with Nnamdi Madubuike officially done for the season. On the offensive side, two-time MVP Lamar Jackson could miss 2-3 weeks with a hamstring injury. Ronnie Stanley was also hurt in the team's Week 4 loss to the Chiefs, and tight end Isaiah Likely still hasn't taken the field yet. Baltimore is still a -320 favorite to make the playoffs at DraftKings, but the Ravens are now +4000 to win the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They are +550 to win the AFC.
The Cincinnati Bengals have lost star quarterback Joe Burrow for at least a few more months, and the results with Jake Browning have not been pretty. Though the Chiefs got a win over the Ravens in Week 4, Patrick Mahomes and company have not looked sharp to begin the year. Kansas City was also 11-0 in one-possession games a year ago, something that is not sustainable in the long run. The Chiefs are already 0-2 in one-possession games in 2025. They are +950 to win the No. 1 seed in the AFC and +450 to win the AFC, overtaking Baltimore but remaining behind Buffalo.
Oddsmakers have the Chargers (+550) as the closest team to Buffalo for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Los Angeles was 3-0 heading into Week 4 but was unable to slow down rookie Jaxson Dart in his first NFL start. The Chargers lost to the Giants and will need to restore some confidence after a strong start to the season against division rivals. Los Angeles is +650 to win the AFC, behind both Kansas City and Baltimore.
It certainly feels like Buffalo will have the top seed in the AFC without many issues. However, the Bills will still have important games against the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Eagles to measure themselves against other contenders. And as always, what Buffalo does in the regular season hardly matters anymore. Everything is about the playoffs, where the Bills have a .500 record under Sean McDermott. Fortunately, it looks like the road to the Super Bowl will go through Orchard Park this postseason.
