The Atlanta Falcons are looking to bounce back from an ugly 30-0 showing against the Carolina Panthers last week, while the Washington Commanders will again turn to Marcus Mariota with Jayden Daniels ruled out for the second week in a row. Washington is also set to be without top receiver Terry McLaurin, giving Mariota one fewer weapon to utilize against Atlanta's defense. With so much shakeup on the Commanders' side of things, which NFL player props should you be targeting at the top sportsbooks for this game?
Here, we dive into some of the best player props for Commanders vs. Falcons in Week 4. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. If you're interested in NFL betting, be sure to check out our NFL betting guide. You can also take a look at the SportsLine Projection Model for the latest Commanders vs. Falcons odds, projections and expert picks.
Michael Penix Jr. Over 219.5 passing yards (-113)
This feels like a critical spot for Penix, who had the worst start of his young NFL career last week against the Panthers, tossing two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown, and failing to put points on the board against a suspect Carolina defense. Head coach Raheem Morris told reporters this week that there's no quarterback controversy in Atlanta, but with Kirk Cousins currently the highest-paid backup in the league, there's going to be some doubt until Penix puts up big numbers like he did late in 2024.
The Falcons badly need a get-right game, both as a team and for Penix specifically. The team's best offensive player is running back Bijan Robinson, but the Falcons also need Penix to use his big arm to move the ball down the field. Washington allowed at least 289 passing yards over the last two weeks and is the 10th-worst defense against the pass through Week 3. Atlanta has the skill players on offense to put up big yards in the passing game, so look for the lefty to make some plays down the field on Sunday.
Drake London anytime touchdown scorer (+160)
This one goes hand-in-hand with our last pick. Drake London has yet to find paydirt in 2025, tallying 16 catches for 159 yards so far on 27 targets. London caught 22 passes over Penix's final three starts of 2024 while averaging 13 targets a game. He also nabbed two touchdowns over those final three games.
There are a few notable mouths to feed in this offense, including Robinson, but from what we've seen so far, the Falcons' offense operates at its best when Penix is peppering London with targets. Few receivers have London's size and red-zone ability, and it'd be surprising to see him go four weeks without a score to begin 2025.
Marcus Mariota Under 201.5 passing yards (-111)
You might think Atlanta's defense is bad considering the Falcons lost 30-0 last week, but they turned the ball over three times, including a pick-6, and also had two turnovers on downs. Atlanta also missed two field goals, so the Panthers were in prime field position all game long. The Falcons actually rank second in total defense, first in passing yards allowed and 10th in rushing yards allowed in the early stages of 2025.
With Mariota starting again, the Commanders will very likely try to run the ball, eat clock and limit possessions. That all is especially possible with McLaurin out due to injury, as that puts a big dent in the team's passing attack. The Commanders scored 41 points last week against Vegas thanks largely to the run game, as Washington used five different players for 199 rushing yards on 32 attempts. Mariota's legs are still a weapon at this stage in his career, as he showed last week, and the Commanders have a few different backs they like getting the ball to. You also have to be aware of receiver Deebo Samuel, who is always a threat in the run game.
Mariota barely eclipsed this number last week with 207 passing yards against a Vegas defense that's been much worse than Atlanta so far this year. The Commanders' best path to victory in Atlanta is leaning on the run game. Couple that with the Falcons' pass defense being awfully tough over the first three weeks, and this looks like an Under day for Mariota.
